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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June

992 replies

boys3 · 26/06/2021 19:10

UK govt press conferences Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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115
Whatever9999 · 28/06/2021 08:57

@NannyAndJohn

Doubling time now down to 11 days.

7 day case average = 14066.

7 day case average one week ago = 9109.

Doubling time in weeks = 1/log2(14066/9109) = 1.6 = 11.2 days.

150000 cases a day by the end of July (and that's without taking into account the opening up on the 19th).

Well that would mean everybody left to be infected (not already had it/not vaccinated/vaccine didn't work) will have had it by a couple weeks later). Which in itself is highly unlikely, because, well you know, as the pool of potential victims reduces its gonna slow. You really need to re-think your calculations, because its not simply going to be a case of everybody that possibly can get it getting it all at once now. Around 90% of the population have some antibodies, including 50% that are as protected as they possibly can be
BlackeyedSusan · 28/06/2021 09:54

I wondered about slowing spread because at some point there are going to be fewer people susceptible making it harder to spread. (Herd immunity point?)

Thinking back to BCF's graph of march 2020 of positive tests and suspected number of actual cases where lots of people probably have had Covid, the likelihood of students and school pupils having had it in Autumn asymptomatically... But more kids catching the delta?

Are we near herd immunity?
Will it be possible without vaccinating kids? (12-18 and under 12s)

(School is going back to masks in classrooms and they have had a small number of positive cases recently after a long period without)

As for the older unvaccinated, what effect are they likely to have on transmission, are they significant number wise?

(Sorry point me in the direction of the end of the last thread if it has been answered there)

Thewiseoneincognito · 28/06/2021 10:23

@BlackeyedSusan

I wondered about slowing spread because at some point there are going to be fewer people susceptible making it harder to spread. (Herd immunity point?)

Thinking back to BCF's graph of march 2020 of positive tests and suspected number of actual cases where lots of people probably have had Covid, the likelihood of students and school pupils having had it in Autumn asymptomatically... But more kids catching the delta?

Are we near herd immunity?
Will it be possible without vaccinating kids? (12-18 and under 12s)

(School is going back to masks in classrooms and they have had a small number of positive cases recently after a long period without)

As for the older unvaccinated, what effect are they likely to have on transmission, are they significant number wise?

(Sorry point me in the direction of the end of the last thread if it has been answered there)

You can catch this more than once, further antibody research is ongoing

Being double jabbed you can still catch it, mostly a mild case

Elderly and immunocompromised do not have guaranteed protection regardless of being double jabbed, they’re at higher risk of severe illness

Children are indeed becoming infected, the government are failing them by seemingly hoping for the best in schools with very little being done to help the situation.

Herd immunity is difficult to predict, particularly if future mutations affect vaccine efficacy

Delta is far more contagious than what was driving our first and second waves, easing restrictions in some ways creates the perfect opportunity for it to simply demonstrate its ability to us

SilenceIsNoLongerSuspicious · 28/06/2021 10:26

Long term lurker on these threads, coming out the shadows to ask a question. I was reading today in the Times about the mortality rate falling:
“Thanks to vaccinations the infection fatality rate of the disease, a measure of the ratio of infections to deaths, is about 0.085 per cent, the Medical Research Council (MRC) biostatistics unit at Cambridge has estimated.”

Which prompted me to look for a graph showing how the link between infection and mortality has changed since the January wave (not the first wave, due to lack of data on infections outside hospital). Has anyone seen something like this? The best I’ve found was these side by side tables on Reuters, but I was hoping for something that did it by age group, so hopefully showing the impact of vaccination.

I want to be able to compare like with like, and see (ideally by NHS Trust) what impact rising infections locally have on admissions and deaths, all on one graph rather than trying to compare different design / axes / time periods. I’m sure someone must have done something like this (maybe on Twitter, which I don’t use?) and I thought the wise people on this thread might know.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June
MRex · 28/06/2021 10:51

@SilenceIsNoLongerSuspicious - deaths can be reported late so there may not be anything too useful showing recent deaths by age as it would be considered incomplete. ONS created similar graphs to yours here: twitter.com/ONS/status/1409149799325126658?s=20.

SilenceIsNoLongerSuspicious · 28/06/2021 10:56

@MRex Thanks! That is exactly what I was looking for, I’ll google ONS Twitter next time I’m searching for stuff like this. Thank you so much.

PurplePi · 28/06/2021 11:48

To back up @LunarSea's point from yesterday:

As student neighbourhoods, Leamington Brunswick & Leamington East and Sydenham are still the worst-hit areas:

www.leamingtoncourier.co.uk/health/why-the-warwick-district-now-has-one-of-the-highest-covid-rates-in-the-midlands-3288333?fbclid=IwAR3b80pOMrP9m7h0tjzYBrS7ZjxcstqH68DV6LyXla-ezCqv7zGGReNq2TA

sirfredfredgeorge · 28/06/2021 12:12

are still the worst-hit areas

But students are I imagine considerably more likely to test - what is Warwick Uni's policy (I tried to find it, but their website is awful) do they need to test to access anything?

Also presumably the buses that get the students to the uni from Leamington are not people limited etc. ? So that could be as big an impact as the pubs...

PurplePi · 28/06/2021 14:34

Good questions. The only thing that I could find was this FAQ that suggests that negative tests are required for some study activities. But it’s very vague. warwick.ac.uk/coronavirus/testandtrace/questions/testing/

Bordois · 28/06/2021 16:09

I'll have to double check where I found this, but someone has done a graph comparing cases and deaths (taking lag into account).

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June
Bordois · 28/06/2021 16:23

mobile.twitter.com/EdConwaySky/status/1408489374363402240

This is where the graph came from

Lemonmelonsun · 28/06/2021 16:42

I don't understand why the government backs itself into a corner by saying what happens in July will be set in stone.
It seems to be, and hopefully this won't happen but the virus may mutate again along with a perfect storm of flu and whatever, NHS over run and again we will get jenny harries telling us not to mix whilst schools are open, again.

Why can't the government simply say, its a fluid ever changing situation and if we can we will ease restrictions in July, and see what happens!

EasterIssland · 28/06/2021 16:45

Worth saying that, although the 22,868 reported case figure sounds bad, it's not the "real number" (there were reporting problems yesterday). The biggest specimen date lately is just over 18 thousand (and sure, that's a lot, but 20% smaller than the headlines might suggest).

twitter.com/BristOliver/status/1409536006215417861

Pleasedontputthatthere · 28/06/2021 16:46

@Lemonmelonsun

I don't understand why the government backs itself into a corner by saying what happens in July will be set in stone. It seems to be, and hopefully this won't happen but the virus may mutate again along with a perfect storm of flu and whatever, NHS over run and again we will get jenny harries telling us not to mix whilst schools are open, again.

Why can't the government simply say, its a fluid ever changing situation and if we can we will ease restrictions in July, and see what happens!

Because at this stage it is very unlikely that the public will play ball. Obviously politicians have their own set of rules anyway.
Quartz2208 · 28/06/2021 16:50

Yes I noticed yesterday that there were reporting problems indicated online

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/whats-new#delayed_reporting_of_cases_data_in_england

Watapalava · 28/06/2021 16:56

At least 5-6000 look like yesterday’s based on recent result for England

Boris won’t suggest maybe because they intend to thankfully open no matter what

They will have offered every adults one dose and vulnerable 2

That’s surely enough to open fully without blame in my book

People will die but hopefully if under 40-50 a day that compares to acceptable flu

Thewiseoneincognito · 28/06/2021 16:57

@Lemonmelonsun

I don't understand why the government backs itself into a corner by saying what happens in July will be set in stone. It seems to be, and hopefully this won't happen but the virus may mutate again along with a perfect storm of flu and whatever, NHS over run and again we will get jenny harries telling us not to mix whilst schools are open, again.

Why can't the government simply say, its a fluid ever changing situation and if we can we will ease restrictions in July, and see what happens!

Because when they first boldly set out our roadmap to Freedom( 😬) they hadn’t anticipated a worse variant than Kent becoming the dominant strain in the UK. As before they naively believed we could beat it and that the vaccines would save us.

They made big promises to the Nation to jolly us along through the remaining part of lockdown up until summer when hopefully we would see a plateau of rates and probably have another Eat out to help out to celebrate.

June was postponed to July, everything will be jolly fine and dandy though there’s no going back on 21st July, Freedom Day, get the bunting out and the Union jacks, hell I’m surprised a parade wasn’t announced.

But again, they didn’t think for a second we would have thousands of cases in summer, they underestimated Delta which has thrown a huge spanner in the works as we can see very clearly.

Itsprobablynotcominghome · 28/06/2021 17:01

@Lemonmelonsun

I don't understand why the government backs itself into a corner by saying what happens in July will be set in stone. It seems to be, and hopefully this won't happen but the virus may mutate again along with a perfect storm of flu and whatever, NHS over run and again we will get jenny harries telling us not to mix whilst schools are open, again.

Why can't the government simply say, its a fluid ever changing situation and if we can we will ease restrictions in July, and see what happens!

People like certainty. However unlikely.

I’ve always been of the opinion that data should drive decisions and thresholds should drive this, and be publicly known.

If we reach 5,000 patients in hospital in England in Summer then we do X, if we reach 10,000 patients in hospital in Autumn we do Y, if we reach 20,000 patients in hospital in Winter we do Z.

Then everyone is on the same page.

Here’s the data part of my post: now 1500 patients in hospital in England. Although the weekly average for admissions has slowed somewhat. Now at 196 for the 7 days to 26th.

YouthfulIndiscretion · 28/06/2021 17:02

Those positivity rates in Scotland look so high, and rising since I last looked. Does anyone know if there’s anything strange driving them or if they really are as high as they look?

Piggywaspushed · 28/06/2021 17:06

People will die but hopefully if under 40-50 a day that compares to acceptable flu

What, every day?

We are still above excess mortality rates. A bad flu season on top of your 40 - 50 a day could wreak havoc.

Watapalava · 28/06/2021 17:08

We are below excess

There are 20 deaths per day if you average for flu

Tinysalmonswimminginastream · 28/06/2021 17:08

This graph from the BBC shows cases and hospitalisations from Autumn compared to now.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th June
Whatever9999 · 28/06/2021 17:08

Just posted this on the good news thread and ita worth noting that there is a lot more mixing going on now than there was on 9th December.

Numbers admitted to hospital are starting to well and truly flatten from 40%+ increase a few weeks ago to 10%.

Plus the effects of the vaccine are starting to become very obvious. At the same point in the increase due to alpha, the 9th December there were :

16500 cases (7 day average right now is about the same)

1753 admitted to hospital (227 admitted 24th June)
16331 in hospital (1505 on 24th june)
1242 on ventilation (257 on 25th june)
441 deaths (553 reported on 9th December), (18/21 on 24th june)

Quartz2208 · 28/06/2021 17:08

But the last time we reached these kind of cases numbers in October it was an average of 1100 patients a day 8000 in hospital 700 on mechanical beds and deaths had hit 3 figures. Yes it was actually then a quicker climb but surely the vaccines are working

Quartz2208 · 28/06/2021 17:10

@Whatever9999 I was looking at October as you were looking at December!

It is good news on both fronts though