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Original poster

Cases are going up, but not deaths?

124 replies

greyinganddecaying · 26/06/2021 10:13

There's clearly a surge in cases (especially in the north west) but is there anywhere that shows if the number of deaths is going up at the same rate? Or do we need to wait awhile to see this?

I'm really hoping that the vaccinations mean that the death rate is slashed, but I don't know where to look (& am skeptical about some of the government figures I've seen).

OP posts:
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5
Letsgetreadytocrumble · 26/06/2021 18:39

Hospital admissions aren't going up at the same rate as cases or deaths, but have still gone up 10.3% in the last 7 days.

The rate at which hospitalisations are rising is decreasing. You can see on the graph that it is plateauing. Hopefully this is due to the vaccination push (as we know it takes time for the vaccine to kick in).

It won't be like Christmas. No one had been vaccinated at Christmas. 83% of the population have been vaccinated now. We just need a few more weeks to see the vaccine kick in even more and then we really need to think about moving forward with this.

PrincessNutNuts · 26/06/2021 19:18

@JassyRadlett

Looking only at cases and deaths forgets that there is an intermediate step which is hospitalisation. LOADS of PHE data this week showing impact of vaccines and delta - Meaghan Kall at PHE had a great Twitter thread explainer which is worth reading as the data is so easily misinterpreted.

The excellent Alasdair Munro also had a great Twitter thread this week on Covid, RSV and other issues this week and why the conspiracies are… misplaced.

(@Tealightsandd I see you’re still knowingly misusing the ONS stats on Covid symptoms after 12 weeks. At least you’re consistently dishonest about the way you use them I guess.)

I find Alasdair Munro a bit "cases in educational aren't high - look at the 0-9s."

Ignoring the fact that half the 0- 9s aren't in a full time educational setting at all - and if they are, the number of their daily contacts is so much smaller than for those in secondary, VIth form colleges or universities.

JassyRadlett · 26/06/2021 19:52

@PrincessNutNuts I don’t think he does do that so much in the way you suggest but we all bring our personal reading, interpretations and weightings to what people write.

I aim for a wide range of reading - as much as I can anyway - but know that I gravitate to certain posters on Twitter rather than others; I suspect we all do.

PrincessNutNuts · 26/06/2021 20:02

[quote JassyRadlett]@PrincessNutNuts I don’t think he does do that so much in the way you suggest but we all bring our personal reading, interpretations and weightings to what people write.

I aim for a wide range of reading - as much as I can anyway - but know that I gravitate to certain posters on Twitter rather than others; I suspect we all do.[/quote]
Same.

After 18 months they all have a track record of being wrong or right and I tend to disregard those who have been wrong a lot.

Except James Ward. I have a soft spot for him because although his models are always over optimistic at first, he tweaks them until they are a closer fit with reality and he's very engaged with his following and never minds explaining things to people. I can't knock that.

TheGuru87 · 26/06/2021 20:24

It will take 3-6 weeks for death numbers to show up.

Hospitalisations are increasing, I'm not really sure if we can say the vaccine has prevented hospitalisations or deaths as of yet. Need more data.

All eyes are on the UK.

EasterIssland · 26/06/2021 21:11

@TheGuru87

It will take 3-6 weeks for death numbers to show up.

Hospitalisations are increasing, I'm not really sure if we can say the vaccine has prevented hospitalisations or deaths as of yet. Need more data.

All eyes are on the UK.

The delta variant was declared a variant of concern on the 14th of may I believe. So we’ve been with this concern for over month and a half now with the cases going up
Tinysalmonswimminginastream · 26/06/2021 21:21

@TheGuru87

It will take 3-6 weeks for death numbers to show up.

Hospitalisations are increasing, I'm not really sure if we can say the vaccine has prevented hospitalisations or deaths as of yet. Need more data.

All eyes are on the UK.

Cases have been rising fairly rapidly for a month now? So 3-6 weeks from when?

Hospitalisations were slightly increasing, but the rate at which they are increasing has been slowing up again.

Oblomov21 · 27/06/2021 06:30

Oblomov21
I don't see the reason for the panic over cases. So long as they aren't seriously ill, don't get long covid, don't need hospital treatment, then what's the concern? 
The more cases the government allow, the more people will be seriously ill, get long covid, and/or need hospital treatment. That's the concern.
PrincessNutsNuts

But that concern isn't warranted. The data suggests that those with the recent delta variant aren't that ill. Lots of cases, but only a high temperature and a sniffly nose, isn't that bad.

Pootle40 · 27/06/2021 07:16

I knew I would find a doom and gloom thread if I looked hard enough. For a minute I thought they had disappeared. Strange since it started off so positive. There is a small increase in deaths but since we know that includes all deaths who happen to be positive for Covid in the last 28 days it doesn't really point to much except a virus circulating more widely!

SexTrainGlue · 27/06/2021 07:32

I think it's really unhelpful to use a 'doom and gloom' label.

If you want action early, to choke off (as far as possible) another wave, then you need to recognise that there is a wave and there is potential for that wave to cause harm.

Waiting until there actually is harm is likely to be too late.

NHS needs to be tackling the backlog thus summer, not continuing to have vast infectious disease wards.

EasterIssland · 27/06/2021 07:47

@SexTrainGlue

I think it's really unhelpful to use a 'doom and gloom' label.

If you want action early, to choke off (as far as possible) another wave, then you need to recognise that there is a wave and there is potential for that wave to cause harm.

Waiting until there actually is harm is likely to be too late.

NHS needs to be tackling the backlog thus summer, not continuing to have vast infectious disease wards.

I keep looking the website We have 180/100k where I live (blue un the map) 10 people in hospital 1 in ventilators. Nhs so far can cope. Few months ago there were more people in hospital
PrincessNutNuts · 06/07/2021 23:43

From The Telegraph:

Cases are going up, but not deaths?
Original poster
greyinganddecaying · 07/07/2021 09:53

@PrincessNutNuts

From The Telegraph:

That's worrying. I wonder what the demographics are for the deaths (if immunised or not etc)? Clearly any deaths are bad news, but it would be interesting to know if there's any clear patterns so we can respond accordingly.

OP posts:
Pootle40 · 07/07/2021 19:19

@PrincessNutNuts

From The Telegraph:
Deaths with Covid will obviously go up if it's in circulation. Not difficult to understand or scary
PrincessNutNuts · 07/07/2021 20:01

@Pootle40

I knew I would find a doom and gloom thread if I looked hard enough. For a minute I thought they had disappeared. Strange since it started off so positive. There is a small increase in deaths but since we know that includes all deaths who happen to be positive for Covid in the last 28 days it doesn't really point to much except a virus circulating more widely!
Then why call this a doom and gloom thread?
Tealightsandd · 07/07/2021 20:08

It's never been just about deaths. The danger, I mean. Long Covid disability is a huge issue.

But wrt deaths. First, they are going up. Secondly, remember that the daily reports only announce deaths that occured within 28 days of a positive test. Loads happen after that. Including a sizeable number of people apparently recovered and discharged from hospital, who then go on to die within 6 months (I think about one third of those discharged). Obviously not all those deaths will be linked to the original cause (Covid). They might be recorded as the immediate presentation - heart attack, stroke, sepsis, pneumonia, etc.

sproutsandparsnips · 07/07/2021 20:52

But that link is from February. I'm not sure it's an equitable comparison to the current situation as we don't know what effect vaccines have on readmissions and subsequent deaths.

Tealightsandd · 07/07/2021 21:10

The second link is 31 March. Lots of vaccinated by that stage.

And quite frankly it's likely vaccines haven't had much of an effect on people ill enough to be hospitalised.

sproutsandparsnips · 07/07/2021 21:13

Sorry to be picky but the second link is a study examining people hospitalised up to august 31 2020.

Tealightsandd · 07/07/2021 21:20

My point stands.

Re if someone is ill enough to be hospitalised.

Pootle40 · 07/07/2021 21:20

@PrincessNutNuts if you're on a thread I know 100% it's full of all your usual depressing stuff.

PrincessNutNuts · 07/07/2021 21:30

[quote Pootle40]@PrincessNutNuts if you're on a thread I know 100% it's full of all your usual depressing stuff.[/quote]
I think about three weeks ago you were dismissing the threat posed by Delta, and saying people had been "sucked in" - so you'll have to forgive me if I don't defer to your judgement in these matters.

Pootle40 · 07/07/2021 21:41

And likewise I don't listen to you @PrincessNutNuts because I have a life to live and thankfully have the intelligence not to be sucked in by the drivel you spout either

NannyAndJohn · 07/07/2021 21:46

If even The Torygraph are concerned then you know we're deep in the shit.