Cases are going up, but not deaths?

[greyinganddecaying]

There's clearly a surge in cases (especially in the north west) but is there anywhere that shows if the number of deaths is going up at the same rate? Or do we need to wait awhile to see this?

I'm really hoping that the vaccinations mean that the death rate is slashed, but I don't know where to look (& am skeptical about some of the government figures I've seen).

@NannyAndJohn

But if you increase a small number by 50%, then increase the resulting number by 50%, then carry on, you end up with a big number.

A very big number.

Call the initial small number x0. Then using the recurrence relation xn = 1.5*x_(n-1), we get

x1 = 1.5x0 = (1.5^1)x_0
x2 = 1.5x1 = 2.25x0 = (1.5^2)*x0
x3 = 1.5x2 = ... = 3.375x0 = (1.5^3)*x0
...
xn = 1.5x(n-1) = ... = (1.5^n)x_0.

So exponential growth.

Does that add up to 100k cases a day by the 15th? 🤔

@PrincessNutNuts

The ratio of cases to hospitalisations and deaths has changed.

The proportion of cases that result in hospital admission and/or death has changed

There was always a lag.

Things are different now so the jag may be different too.

It has always taken time for cases to filter up from the younger ages groups to the older age groups who are more likely to die.

But children and young people are dying and personally I don't feel particularly celebratory about it.

I haven't seen any child deaths reported. Do you have a link please?

There's a mathematical example that my dad used to use to explain exponential growth. If you could fold a piece of paper 42 times, doubling the thickness each time, it would reach the moon.

Small numbers become large numbers very quickly with exponential growth. Double 2 10 times and that's 1000 deaths. 10 more and it's a million. Small numbers don't protect us, but they give us time to react if deaths do start to rise.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Is the England breakdown

@NannyAndJohn

I mean last Autumn when we didn't yet have Delta, *@Letsgetreadytocrumble*.

But we had alpha ?

@Bordois depends on the noise remember ;)

They are increasing, but from a small number so it doesn't seem so obvious looking at the numbers.

It's a bit all over the place though - the 7 day rolling average for cases and deaths show a similar increase (actually a bigger increase for deaths, but we are talking about small numbers), but the number of hospitalisations hasn't increased as much.

It's sadly not correct to say that cases are increasing but deaths aren't - the data shows they are.

Have Alpha, Beta and Gamma strains ceased to be a problem?

Which countries do they relate to again?

c48 cases in 50 000 for UK test events

@Letsgetreadytocrumble

Time - deaths would take some time to rise after cases do. It's very rare to drop down dead from covid within 48 hours.

Yes, but cases have been going up for ages now, at least a month, and deaths have not risen at a similar rate, even taking a lag into account.

Yes, I know. I literally said that in the first sentence of my post.

Not in the Autumn, @EasterIssland. That was still Original Covid, which now looks like a walk in the park.

@frumpety

A month ago cases were at about 2,000 a day ? now they are at about 10,000 ish ? Anecdotally all the recent cases I have heard of in my area have been in secondary school aged children.

Not 10000ish cases per day, yesterday was 15000+

@lborolass

Lawrence Gilder on Twitter reports the official numbers every day and put them on a graph.

The cerise pink block from a few days ago is a 0-9 death.

Orange is a death of someone aged 10-19.

Green is 20-29

Red is 30-39 -and so on.

twitter.com/lawrencegilder/status/1407366198992506881?s=21

If you're looking at the daily deaths, those won't include the many deaths that occur after 28 days (and remember a sizeable proportion of deaths happen up to 6 months later - often after apparent recovery and discharge from hospital).

There also seems to be quite a lot of summer flu deaths (despite a low prevalence worldwide), and deaths from issues very often caused by Covid such as pneumonia, sepsis, stroke, and cardiac. And it was recently reported that hospitals are seeing lots of children with 'winter' viruses. Of course all this could just be coincidence but we know that around 30% of tests (PCR) are false negatives so...

@NannyAndJohn

Not in the Autumn, *@EasterIssland*. That was still Original Covid, which now looks like a walk in the park.

Alpha was first found in the uk in September ,

Meanwhile we really need to stop focusing solely on hospitalisations and deaths.

Long Covid can cause heart, lung, kidney, and brain damage, trigger diabetes, and lead to hearing loss. People are being left unable to work.

2 million - so far - suffering with Long Covid. Of course it's extremely likely that's an underestimate because patients (including children) have been struggling to get their symptoms taken seriously.

I posted an article yesterday about a young woman who has life threatening clots in her lungs. Her doctors dismissed her as having anxiety and standard scans found nothing. It was only when she saw a specialist and had a different type of scan that the serious problems were discovered.

I don't see the reason for the panic over cases. So long as they aren't seriously ill, don't get long covid, don't need hospital treatment, then what's the concern?

@Tealightsandd

Meanwhile we really need to stop focusing solely on hospitalisations and deaths.

Long Covid can cause heart, lung, kidney, and brain damage, trigger diabetes, and lead to hearing loss. People are being left unable to work.

2 million - so far - suffering with Long Covid. Of course it's extremely likely that's an underestimate because patients (including children) have been struggling to get their symptoms taken seriously.

I posted an article yesterday about a young woman who has life threatening clots in her lungs. Her doctors dismissed her as having anxiety and standard scans found nothing. It was only when she saw a specialist and had a different type of scan that the serious problems were discovered.

How many of those that are catching delta vaccinated are having long COVID ? How many of those that are catching delta unvaccinated cuz they can’t are having long COVID ?

Well that's just it. People are getting seriously ill and they are getting Long Covid. Hence the concen.

How many of those that are catching delta vaccinated are having long COVID ?

We won't know for a while yet how many will get Long Covid from the Delta strain. It's impact is only just starting to take effect. The 2 million and counting already suffering with Long Covid mostly would have caught a previous strain.

I guess the UK public are the guinea pigs with regards this, and we'll find out at a later stage.

And it was recently reported that hospitals are seeing lots of children with 'winter' viruses. Of course all this could just be coincidence but we know that around 30% of tests (PCR) are false negatives so...

When children don't socialise they don't catch viruses, that are essential in the development of their immune system.

There are lots and lots of viruses that have not had a chance to spread due to the measures brought in for Covid.

Children get sick. Children who have been isolated for most of their lives will pick up everything that is going around and won't have the immunity yet to fight it as easily.

Why are they unvaccinated? They shouldn't be. Every age group had been done, they are doing 18-25 year olds now.

@Tealightsandd

How many of those that are catching delta vaccinated are having long COVID ?

We won't know for a while yet how many will get Long Covid from the Delta strain. It's impact is only just starting to take effect. The 2 million and counting already suffering with Long Covid mostly would have caught a previous strain.

I guess the UK public are the guinea pigs with regards this, and we'll find out at a later stage.

There are not 2 million currently suffering. It is defined as one or more symptoms lasting 12 weeks.

I guess the UK public are the guinea pigs with regards this, and we'll find out at a later stage.

We need to get on with things. Most adults are now vaccinated and there is a big drive to get all over 18s done.

I am not one who believes in just letting it rip and u was relieved when the brakes were put on the other week, but really what do you want?

How are the UK guinea pigs? We are in a much better position than lots of other countries because we have so many vaccinated - even with relatively high case numbers at the moment.

Actually the experts - scientists and doctors - have explained that's rubbish, the myth that getting sick is essential to the immune system.

Separately due to worldwide social distancing measures against Covid, there is currently a low prevalence of these winter viruses. Add in that 30% of Covid tests (gold standard PCR, not wildly inaccurate left) are false negatives and it's not unreasonable to wonder.

Stil it could, like I say, just be coincidence that the UK suddenly has a lot of cases of winter viruses that are not currently about much worldwide.