Cases are going up, but not deaths?

[greyinganddecaying]

There's clearly a surge in cases (especially in the north west) but is there anywhere that shows if the number of deaths is going up at the same rate? Or do we need to wait awhile to see this?

I'm really hoping that the vaccinations mean that the death rate is slashed, but I don't know where to look (& am skeptical about some of the government figures I've seen).

Because older and vulnerable people have been vaccinated and younger people tend not to be so severely affected. My local hospital is now zero covid although there are positive cases in the area.

That's good news. Is it too soon to be reassured by this or would we have seen a significant increase in deaths by now?

The cases have only recently started going into the several thousands. Deaths tend to have a slight lag so I think we still have another week or so to go before any signs of change.

All the news outlets are full of the fact that this is happening and will continue to do so. The Delta variant is responsible for most cases in the UK, and whilst it's more virulent, it's less dangerous. So, logically, lots of cases (and as others have said, these will be mainly the unvaccinated, so not CEV or old and therefore less likely to get very ill) fewer hospitalisations needed, and even fewer deaths.

If you look here

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

It is clear that the vaccine is working.

Agree. The vaccine is working. By prioritising the most likely to die from Covid, the link between cases and deaths has been broken.

Of course it doesn't mean that nobody is going to die from Covid, ever. Just the same as people are vaccinated against flu or whatever else and some people still die from it.

Deaths are increasing slightly, which is bad news, but at a much much lower rate than cases, which is good news. There are two variables at play:

Time - deaths would take some time to rise after cases do. It's very rare to drop down dead from covid within 48 hours.

The vaccines - which are reducing the chances of developing severe illness and dying.

It's inevitable that we'll see some kind of rise in deaths as cases rise, but how much deaths rise should be mitigated by vaccines.

Time - deaths would take some time to rise after cases do. It's very rare to drop down dead from covid within 48 hours.

Yes, but cases have been going up for ages now, at least a month, and deaths have not risen at a similar rate, even taking a lag into account.

It's magnificent news.

A month ago cases were at about 2,000 a day ? now they are at about 10,000 ish ?
Anecdotally all the recent cases I have heard of in my area have been in secondary school aged children.

I had to double check the date of the OP, how do you not know this stuff

The internet and news is awash with the links/timings between cases/hospitalisations/death. Chris Whitty literally explains it every single time he's on the TV and now adds extra info on the Delta variant

There's nothing new that can be said

We need to wait and see.

Remember last Autumn when cases were rising but deaths initially stayed rather flat?

And everyone was saying "it's over"?

@NannyAndJohn

We need to wait and see.

Remember last Autumn when cases were rising but deaths initially stayed rather flat?

And everyone was saying "it's over"?

What, you mean last Autumn when not a single person in the UK had had a vaccine?

According to the government site cases are up 47.9% in the last 7 days and deaths up 52.8% in the same time period.
So they are going up.
However going up from a very low base in deaths, not so low in cases.

@NannyAndJohn

We need to wait and see.

Remember last Autumn when cases were rising but deaths initially stayed rather flat?

And everyone was saying "it's over"?

Last year cases started in you g, deaths stayed low initially then rose as cases moved up the age groups to older and CEV vulnerable people. This time we have cases in young but the older and more vulnerable people are vaccinated so it is much harder for the virus to move up the age groups in the same way, hence lower deaths even with higher cases.

I mean last Autumn when we didn't yet have Delta, @Letsgetreadytocrumble.

@MargaretThursday

According to the government site cases are up 47.9% in the last 7 days and deaths up 52.8% in the same time period. So they are going up. However going up from a very low base in deaths, not so low in cases.

Yes, 50% of a small number is another small number

Despite the rise in cases in my borough hospitalisations and deaths have barely changed. Just 2 deaths since March.

Our local hospital trust with five large London hospitals still had less than 30 covid patients between them last time I looked

Vaccination rates are not good here but I think enough people have had covid before so one vaccine is doing the job of two.

Hopefully our numbers will last🤞

Yes definitely a case of checking death numbers with percentages

We show a 50% deaths increase. It actually shows we went from 1 death to 2.

But if you increase a small number by 50%, then increase the resulting number by 50%, then carry on, you end up with a big number.

A very big number.

Call the initial small number x0. Then using the recurrence relation xn = 1.5*x_(n-1), we get

x1 = 1.5x0 = (1.5^1)x_0
x2 = 1.5x1 = 2.25x0 = (1.5^2)*x0
x3 = 1.5x2 = ... = 3.375x0 = (1.5^3)*x0
...
xn = 1.5x(n-1) = ... = (1.5^n)x_0.

So exponential growth.

@NannyAndJohn

But if you increase a small number by 50%, then increase the resulting number by 50%, then carry on, you end up with a big number.

A very big number.

Call the initial small number x0. Then using the recurrence relation xn = 1.5*x_(n-1), we get

x1 = 1.5x0 = (1.5^1)x_0
x2 = 1.5x1 = 2.25x0 = (1.5^2)*x0
x3 = 1.5x2 = ... = 3.375x0 = (1.5^3)*x0
...
xn = 1.5x(n-1) = ... = (1.5^n)x_0.

So exponential growth.

😂😂😂

That is the funniest post of the week

Bloody brilliant 🤣

Didn't enjoy maths at school, @TruelyonelastSchlep?

Hardly anyone I know cares anymore esp water the Matt Hancock incident.

You got kids creating false positive tests by just using drinks so they can skip school, which says alot about the accuracy of tests of its as easy as that.

Enough us ebough. Noone bothered when flu was killing people in the thousands year on year.

People are suffering from pain due to delayed surgeries etc. I know people who are close to suicide just to end their pain. Its like torture for them. So yes who gives a rap anymore. Time to move on and get back to normal.

@NannyAndJohn

Didn't enjoy maths at school, *@TruelyonelastSchlep*?

I know you are being serious but your posts often make me chuckle. I can't help it. Funny is funny.

Like I said if the number is going for a low number like one to two. Then 50% is not what you should be looking at is it.

So just check the number they are talking about before having a wobbly and crying exponential growth. The pattern needs to be repeated a few times before you can make that claim anyway.

That is maths and science ❤

The ratio of cases to hospitalisations and deaths has changed.

The proportion of cases that result in hospital admission and/or death has changed

There was always a lag.

Things are different now so the jag may be different too.

It has always taken time for cases to filter up from the younger ages groups to the older age groups who are more likely to die.

But children and young people are dying and personally I don't feel particularly celebratory about it.