Cases are going up, but not deaths?

[greyinganddecaying]

There's clearly a surge in cases (especially in the north west) but is there anywhere that shows if the number of deaths is going up at the same rate? Or do we need to wait awhile to see this?

I'm really hoping that the vaccinations mean that the death rate is slashed, but I don't know where to look (& am skeptical about some of the government figures I've seen).

@NannyAndJohn

If even The Torygraph are concerned then you know we're deep in the shit.

This is from The Times too...

Freedom Day for the virus...!

How can deaths NOT be proportional to cases? How would that work?

@Nellodee

How can deaths NOT be proportional to cases? How would that work?

Exactly.

I had hoped that the vaccinations would reduce the risk of death, so the proportion of people who caught covid & died would be much lower than last year/before vaccinations were rolled out,

Vaccines do help. But high risk countries like the UK jumped the gun. There needs to be majority of population vaccinated (80-90%) to get proper herd immunity protection, including limited transmission. Letting it spread freely and welcoming in new strains before majority vaccinated causes difficulties.

Widespread uncontained infection increases the risk of vaccine resistant variants developing.

Already, vaccines are less effective against Delta. (Although still pretty good).

Also some vaccines might be more effective than others. Recent reports suggest AZ produces less antibodies than Pfizer and Moderna. Possibly we'll need to give mRNA boosters to people who had AZ, particularly the vulnerable.

But - it might not be a huge issue. Antibodies aren't necessarily the only issue. T cells, etc play a role, and perhaps AZ boosts these. Also it could simply be a case of needing more time. AZ protection develops more slowly (so could end up giving very strong protection but not as quickly).

Vaccines do help a lot. And they are. Deaths have fallen in older age groups (those most likely to be fully) vaccinated.

They're not 100% effective, however, and work best once the majority of the population are fully vaccinated.

Vaccines have made a difference.

We're just not there yet - to be able to completely drop our guard, and letting it freely spread before the majority are fully vaccinated risks the development of vaccine resistant mutations.

We need to try to cautiously open up - but it should be with some simple mitigation measures. Such as masks in enclosed and poorly ventilated spaces.

@greyinganddecaying

I had hoped that the vaccinations would reduce the risk of death, so the proportion of people who caught covid & died would be much lower than last year/before vaccinations were rolled out,

It is.

Even though only 51% of the U.K. population is double jabbed.

But if government policies create more cases than we've ever seen before then it's a smaller percentage of a much bigger number.

The previous peak of detected cases was about 69,000 a day in January 2021.

Our health minister is talking about 100,000 cases a day soon - and there is no indication that it would stop doubling there.

As cases move up the age range, the death rate may go up.

As prevalence increases across the country the virus will get to higher numbers of vulnerable people and the death rate is likely to go up.

And as hospitals struggle to cope, the death rate tends to go up as hard choices have to be made.

We can never achieve herd immunity with the Delta variant, apparently we would need 125% vaccinated, as it is so transmissible. the target is now out of reach.

Thanks to BoZo and his "strict" border controls

@PrincessNutNuts the ratio of deaths:cases is significantly reduced due to vaccines. Covid is milder if vaccinated people get it therefore lower deaths despite high cases.

How hard is that to understand? But it doesn't fit your narrative does it

@ancientcreature

We can never achieve herd immunity with the Delta variant, apparently we would need 125% vaccinated, as it is so transmissible. the target is now out of reach.

Thanks to BoZo and his "strict" border controls

It is becoming the dominant variant everywhere. Leave the party political crap out of it

Sorry to be a pedant but an increase from one death to two is not a 50% increase.

@Geamhradh

All the news outlets are full of the fact that this is happening and will continue to do so. The Delta variant is responsible for most cases in the UK, and whilst it's more virulent, it's less dangerous. So, logically, lots of cases (and as others have said, these will be mainly the unvaccinated, so not CEV or old and therefore less likely to get very ill) fewer hospitalisations needed, and even fewer deaths.

I thought the experts had settled on definitely more transmissable and probably a bit more dangerous, not less

[quote CottageGardener]@PrincessNutNuts the ratio of deaths:cases is significantly reduced due to vaccines. Covid is milder if vaccinated people get it therefore lower deaths despite high cases.

How hard is that to understand? But it doesn't fit your narrative does it[/quote]
That is correct.

The predictions as to what happens to all the young people who don't die is a little less rosy though.

Last estimates I saw looked like a 20-30% rate of long covid in young people, and we just dont know what the consequences of that might be.... Potentially a generation of children disabled by this virus.

Look at Polio, as an orthopaedic surgeon I was still treating people with the after effects of child hood polio on a regular basis, less than 10 years ago, and still see the occaisional older person who has had lifelong problems despite having the vaccine for 70 years, and the last case in the UK being over 40 years ago.

@FixTheBone you've lost the argument on deaths so bring out the long covid argument. Presumably as a dr you know that many viruses result in effects that can last a few months. Where is the evidence of covid resulting in permanent changes in most people?

[quote CottageGardener]@PrincessNutNuts the ratio of deaths:cases is significantly reduced due to vaccines. Covid is milder if vaccinated people get it therefore lower deaths despite high cases.

How hard is that to understand? But it doesn't fit your narrative does it[/quote]
Perhaps you missed my post just below yours?

[quote CottageGardener]@FixTheBone you've lost the argument on deaths so bring out the long covid argument. Presumably as a dr you know that many viruses result in effects that can last a few months. Where is the evidence of covid resulting in permanent changes in most people?[/quote]
I've not 'lost' any argument on deaths.

We were on course for armageddon, then a half hearted lockdown and a very quickly developed vaccine bailed the government out of their utter ineptitude.

There's loads of evidence of long covid and growing evidence that it's a bigger problem than previously estimated.

I'll start you with what I think is the latest peer reviewed summary, because it's a fairly good account of current knowledge and references a lot of the other current literature on the subject.

www.bmj.com/content/373/bmj.n853

Thanks for that @FixTheBone. I hadn't seen that.

Operations being cancelled due to rising Covid rates and Monday hasn't even come yet

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-birmingham-queen-elizabeth-hospital-operations-b1884914.html

284 deaths last 7 days, so not insignificant.

Aren’t there’s usually around 1500 deaths per day in the U.K. from all causes?

"Usually "? What science is that?

@Tinpotspectator

284 deaths last 7 days, so not insignificant.

Around 2% of all deaths

@Tinpotspectator

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths

For the last few weeks we’ve actually been below the expected number of deaths per day.

Excess mortality charts here:

app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiYmUwNmFhMjYtNGZhYS00NDk2LWFlMTAtOTg0OGNhNmFiNGM0IiwidCI6ImVlNGUxNDk5LTRhMzUtNGIyZS1hZDQ3LTVmM2NmOWRlODY2NiIsImMiOjh9

It is brilliant! It all point out to the vaccines really working.
There is still quite a large number of cases going into hospital, so I am a bit wary of this. The peak of this curve does not seem to be anywhere on sight yet. I really really hope hospitals do not get too crowded again!
Also, the link with deads is most definitively weakened, but I would like now to see graphs related to long covid. There is quite a lot of people needing hospital treatment.
It is great that deadths are so low, but if we are going to have thousands with long term effects, we need to address this.
This variant, I reckon, is going to have a massive peak, because it is so contagious, and we are lifting restrictions!
And I reckon that future variants will have even larger waves. Just hoping that we are immune to them by the time they come.