We're going to have another lockdown aren't we?

[faithfulbird20]

So yesterday we got very quick messages for 2nd vaccine 4 weeks after first and a lot of people were saying that's quick...also today school has said they're cancelling all trips too due coronavirus. I guess there's fear it will get a lot worse...honestly think it will be another year or more before things get better...

[quote Sweak]@Pootle40 I don't buy such a large number to be explained like that. Unless it's a medical emergency you aren't going to get admitted with a positive test are you. Routine ops etc would be rescheduled[/quote]
Come again? Just to be clear the hospital admissions don't reflect people admitted to hospital as a result of Covid. It is those people plus anyone else admitted to hospital for anything who tested positive in the last 28 days. Doesn't matter if you don't buy it it is what it is.

@Sparklingbrook

We need one continuous thread for this. Titled ‘Coronavirus Doom and Gloom come for a wallow in it’ or something.

Definitely !! But that’s how some people are , it’s like we could have a month of sunshine then it rains one day and you get that’s it summer over rubbish weather. They have no joy in life and I pity people like this but if it makes them happy lol . To answer your op no we won’t have a lockdown, restrictions yes but no lockdown. The 4 week wait is to push the rest of who’s having a vaccine a lot have had 2 vaccines now so the younger ones won’t need to wait as long .

@Pootle40 I understand what you said. I mean I don't think what you are saying can account for a 48% rise. It will account for some of it yes.

Extending restrictions was based on hospital admission projections (and deaths) largely as a result of Delta. Do you really think they've not looked at this data closely when making such a huge economic (and political) sacrifice? By your logic its just as it's in circulation amongst the population who happen to be admitted to hospital. Surely the projections and data they've analysed would take this into account?

I realise this post in isolation makes me sound like I'm fearful or in favour of locking down again...based on our current situation, no. I'm just disputing the dismissal of the hospital admission data

🤦🏻‍♀️

• hospitals are a breeding ground themselves
• higher circulation in the community
• there is no rise of concern of people being admitted to hospital due to be seriously ill with Covid

But I am bored as I feel like a broken record

48% increase does on paper seem terrible but 1) as @Pootle40 says quite correctly everyone now admitted to hospital will be tested (even if it's just a minor op) whether they are sent home again is irrelevant as they are counted as an admission.
2) Even a 100% increase looks more scary at lower figures (as in 1 person yesterday 2 today) where as if it went from say 3000 to 4000 that would be a much lower percentage but a higher number. Its really all about context but that hard to absorb for all of us after the last 15 months of scary graphs, so I understand anyone's concern xx

I usually avoid the covid board on MN...as soon as you ask questions you get passive aggressive emojis and statements implying you are stupid if you have any caution.

Thank you wishfulthinking for your polite and informative reply..I actually wasn't aware that those who are being sent home on admission for testing positive actually still count as an admission.

@Sweak You are very welcome! I do understand how people can become overwhelmed and scared by statistics, it is a complete minefield! I also don't feel the need to insult anyone as I know how it feels to be worried! I am lucky enough to live with a scientist who is top of their field in data analysis and have many friends working in our major hospital, so would rather spread the positives! Xx

I think hospital admissions are doing the same thing cases did for about six weeks before they began steadily rising.

As cases rise hospital admissions will also rise -just a bit later and a bit lower.

If admissions are now 5% of cases, then today's 11,007 new cases will put about 550 people in hospital over the next couple of weeks.

My auntie has recently had her long overdue operation from last spring and it was my understanding that all tests inc covid were performed prior to admission.

Hers were fine and she was all set to be admitted, but they didn't have room for her in ICU for after the op so she was sent home again and not admitted.

The second time they tried she had a test, they checked with ICU about space, and then they admitted her.

It wasn't a case of admitting her first and testing afterwards.

They need to know whether to put people on covid wards or non covid wards so they test prior to admission is my understanding.

Truly, I hope not.
I do think we should be doing whatever we can to mitigate spread of Delta whilst vaccinating like crazy to prevent another perhaps more dangerous variant. We're not though, which leaves the door open.

This may surprise some but I think we may avoid lockdown until the autumn winter. Having said that until we see more of the effect of Delta it’s virtually impossible to say what will happen. A summer lockdown during school holidays would be an economic disaster in loss of domestic tourism income so they will try to avoid that at all costs. Live each day and just follow the rules as best as you can, what will be will be.

Princess I knew they tested hospital admissions. I wasn't aware that if they were positive, and therefore possibly sent home (if not life threatening) that they still counted in the figures as pp said.

Thewise - I don't think there's any justification for a lock down over the summer.

I'm also surprised you think there will be one in autumn/winter. Restrictions yes, lockdown no.

@Sweak

Thewise - I don't think there's any justification for a lock down over the summer.

I'm also surprised you think there will be one in autumn/winter. Restrictions yes, lockdown no.

Maybe today there isn’t justification but should the numbers continue on their path then it’s going to lead to some very tough decisions.

As for winter, you can more or less guarantee we will see another lockdown, especially if another variant pops up which considering how many are being studied and monitored make it only a matter of time.

Do you not believe the current news though that exponential growth has been broken and that although it is growing growth has slowed?

Lockdown though is the nuclear option - what is causes is immense and I think it is only a properly escaping vaccine variant with high transmissibility that will do it.

Other it becomes a question of semantics. I think a lot of us who are saying there will be no lockdown are talking about the April 2020 January 2021 conditions where we really did get close to what lockdown means (state of isolation and restricted access). But that doesnt mean that there wont potentially be restrictions as that is a different thing. I expect certainly on a local level depending on how outbreaks of Covid, Flu, RSV are going and hospital pressures we might.

@Thewiseoneincognito why are you guaranteeing another lockdown when even scientists are saying there won’t be one?

There won’t be. Maybe restrictions but no lockdown.

@PrincessNutNuts

My auntie has recently had her long overdue operation from last spring and it was my understanding that all tests inc covid were performed prior to admission.

Hers were fine and she was all set to be admitted, but they didn't have room for her in ICU for after the op so she was sent home again and not admitted.

The second time they tried she had a test, they checked with ICU about space, and then they admitted her.

It wasn't a case of admitting her first and testing afterwards.

They need to know whether to put people on covid wards or non covid wards so they test prior to admission is my understanding.

I think that only applies to planned admissions. Alot of admissions aren't planned. My DM collapsed at work and was admitted. She had a lateral flow in a&e before being taken to the ward and a pcr once there.

[quote Sweak]@Pootle40 I don't buy such a large number to be explained like that. Unless it's a medical emergency you aren't going to get admitted with a positive test are you. Routine ops etc would be rescheduled[/quote]
Absolutely. I find posts like that so irritating I nearly posted a reply, decided to save my breath but now I've flip flopped Also someone having their toe amputated in hospital is likely to have other issues ( eg diabetics sometimes have amputations) which may mean getting covid turns a routine hospital visit into a very dangerous one for them. Hospital patients as a whole are a very vulnerable population, catching Covid while there is bad news for the vast majority of them.

These spurious arguments are like the ones obsessed about people dying with with or of Covid within 28 days , like there are thousands of people getting run over by buses and having their deaths attributed to Covid because they were infected less than 28 days ago. If this were the case deaths in bus accidents seen to have skyrocketed since March 2020

What these arguments conveniently forget is that there is a lot of evidence now that a significant proportion of discharged Covid patients end up back in hospital weeks later and some die well after 28 days with Covid caused illnesses that may not be directly attributed to Covid on the death certificate. I imagine they go some way to offsetting the former small number of deaths incorrectly attributed to Covid ( of which I am sure there are some just not vast numbers as often implied)

But I digress -As to the op I don't think we will have another national lock down for all of the reasons already stated by others.
Of of course I can't be 100% certain .This has been a very uncertain 18 months

I dunno.
Whitty, Valance, Johnson, Hancock have all mentioned ‘living with Covid’.
So I think we’re being prepped to keep easing restrictions but being asked to voluntarily retain the ones we can which will probably result in some mask wearing, some working from home, some people avoiding gatherings. But will also see full return to other things for those that wish to.

why are you guaranteeing another lockdown when even scientists are saying there won’t be one?

Because the power of grim and relentless negativity on MN will make it happen dammit 😂

Thewise - it case numbers continue to rise that doesn't mean there will be another lockdown...it's no longer about case numbers. It's about hospitalisations and deaths. The reason for the current delay is to get more double jabs.

If vaccines can deal with variants there will be no need to another lockdown. But we might need some restrictions.

If variants evade vaccines that's another issue

Because the power of grim and relentless negativity on MN will make it happen dammit 😂

If you say it every day! ;

@bumblingbovine49 thank you, you explain my annoyance so well too. And yes it's pretty much the same argument about dying with/of covid. These people always try to dismiss you as stupid too, like the poster above did.

Of course some of the hospital data isn't accurate in that it includes people admitted with covid but not of covid. All I was saying is I can't see it accounting for such a huge percentage increase.

None of that means we should lockdown of course...just that we need to speed up/extend vaccinations were possible

Intermittent ongoing varying levels of restrictions, yes, full blown lockdown, no.

We have a rise in cases here but no hospital admissions or deaths.

Cases are in children and in several schools but appear mainly asymptomatic and not serious at all -apart from the constant missed education - no set work when isolating still. I assumed that the school would have least got to grips with setting work for isolating pupils now! So my main worry is missed education rather than covid. PS - no teachers tested positive at the school just one pupil and everyone else isolating.