We're going to have another lockdown aren't we?

[faithfulbird20]

So yesterday we got very quick messages for 2nd vaccine 4 weeks after first and a lot of people were saying that's quick...also today school has said they're cancelling all trips too due coronavirus. I guess there's fear it will get a lot worse...honestly think it will be another year or more before things get better...

Ffs @PrincessNutNuts can you not look on the bright side just once.

Yes if cases rise then hospitalisation will also rise, but at a much reduced and manageable rate. There are already signs that the rate of increase is levelling off, where we were seeing a 60%+ week on week increase we are now down to 31.4%. As a further percentage of the population is jabbed (and even one jab still adds to herd immunity, even though not as much as 2), plus those who are currently infected develop.anitobodies, that rate of increase should go down even further. It will take time, possibly another month or so, but then we can start looking forward to the infection rate dropping (if we're even still testing every sniffle, or people who don't even have that).

But the one thing that isn't different is that he more cases you allow, the more hospitalisations you will get

This is undoubtedly true but we’re in a period where we don’t have a true idea of roughly where the boundary line is for hospital capacity is any more (not that the government proactively paid attention to that before). We don’t have very good data yet about how much the vaccines will slow the rate of infection given the weeks long period it can take to kick in. All the early signs are good though.

Vaccines are the equivalent of turning a tanker. It’s slow progress.

@NannyAndJohn today is the day! 21st of June,
on the 4th you made a comment where you kind of called those people using a thread stupid because we liked the good news. You predicted 100k cases and 20k hospitalisations by today.

I know there was too much noise back then and just in 3 weeks time the things have turned out to be 10k and 200 cases respectively.

Now you say it'll be around August time when this will happen unless I guess some more noise comes.

Would be nice that next time instead of saying "the thread where people love to have their head in the sand" you check your data/numbers properly.

I'll look on the bright side when there is one.

We're a long way from out of the woods yet.

It'll just look ok to some people for a while.

Israel's got a bright side. They'll get on top of whatever delta throws at them. The U.K. government still thinks you can "live with covid" and that "cases don't matter".

Variants don't cause lockdowns. Bad covid strategies do.

Whatever I thought your post was a really good indication on the link being broken.

Very useful to see

Everyone makes mistakes @EasterIssland.

Can anyone on this thread say they've never been wrong about covid?

I certainly have.

I thought preparations would be going on behind the scenes in January 2020, and the U.K. had the best pandemic plan on he world.

I thought the government would quickly realise that their failure to institute a fit for purpose test trace and isolate system would condemn us to massive death, health system overload, economic carnage, and repeated cycles of lockdowns and so they'd fix it...

@PrincessNutNuts

Everyone makes mistakes *@EasterIssland*.

Can anyone on this thread say they've never been wrong about covid?

I certainly have.

I thought preparations would be going on behind the scenes in January 2020, and the U.K. had the best pandemic plan on he world.

I thought the government would quickly realise that their failure to institute a fit for purpose test trace and isolate system would condemn us to massive death, health system overload, economic carnage, and repeated cycles of lockdowns and so they'd fix it...

Relentless!

@PrincessNutNuts

Everyone makes mistakes *@EasterIssland*.

Can anyone on this thread say they've never been wrong about covid?

I certainly have.

I thought preparations would be going on behind the scenes in January 2020, and the U.K. had the best pandemic plan on he world.

I thought the government would quickly realise that their failure to institute a fit for purpose test trace and isolate system would condemn us to massive death, health system overload, economic carnage, and repeated cycles of lockdowns and so they'd fix it...

Of course everyone does. But the poster im quoting came into a nice happy thread to tell us how naive we were and that their predictions were the right ones and we should see the reality. Then went to other threads talking about us being happy about happy news. Today is rhe day they were using to laugh at us … and seems like we were more right to be happy

@MarshaBradyo

Whatever I thought your post was a really good indication on the link being broken.

Very useful to see

Not only that. Even nhs boss is saying that the link has been broken … they’d never say such a thing if it wasn’t true

Easter very true

Yep if Chris Hopson is saying it it’s worth listening to. He’s usually very cautious and protective

A good thread from someone who understand properly data and numbers and takes into account noises …
mobile.twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1406978310022774788?s=19

@PrincessNutNuts

Everyone makes mistakes *@EasterIssland*.

Can anyone on this thread say they've never been wrong about covid?

I certainly have.

I thought preparations would be going on behind the scenes in January 2020, and the U.K. had the best pandemic plan on he world.

I thought the government would quickly realise that their failure to institute a fit for purpose test trace and isolate system would condemn us to massive death, health system overload, economic carnage, and repeated cycles of lockdowns and so they'd fix it...

Everyone makes mistakes but some people refuse to acknowledge when they are wrong.

That list of things they got wrong by pp is a bit like I’m too clever all round

Why people are wasted on here instead of applying for positions idk

@PrincessNutNuts

Everyone makes mistakes *@EasterIssland*.

Can anyone on this thread say they've never been wrong about covid?

I certainly have.

I thought preparations would be going on behind the scenes in January 2020, and the U.K. had the best pandemic plan on he world.

I thought the government would quickly realise that their failure to institute a fit for purpose test trace and isolate system would condemn us to massive death, health system overload, economic carnage, and repeated cycles of lockdowns and so they'd fix it...

No, you didn't think that. Not even if you are Alexander's Johnson's wife did you think that. Why would you have thought that?

Ultimately we are going to have to get on with life this virus isn’t going to go away anytime soon.

Lockdowns are an inconvenience and probably do more harm than good at this stage. The full effect of them hasn’t come through yet and we will be dealing with the aftermath for years to come.
Also I think very few people take notice of them judging by the traffic jams on the roads during the last one.

@MarshaBradyo

Whatever I thought your post was a really good indication on the link being broken.

Very useful to see

Thank you. One of the really good aspects of my autism is that I have a fascination with numbers and data, can look at them objectively without emotion and see patterns. Means I can also see the faults in other people's maths and see when they've made simple mistakes. I can actually visualise the curve atm, and can see that we appear to be approaching the top of a bell curve rather than an exponential growth curve (and yes they are different, although the growth stage of a bell curve can have an exponential feature. fingers crossed it won't be too long and we'll be in the decay stage)

I thought preparations would be going on behind the scenes in January 2020, and the U.K. had the best pandemic plan on he world

Why would you think that when the WHO said it hadn’t left China for most of January and everyone was looking at me strangely well into 2020 when I said I thought family had all had it in 2019.

Been told on here I couldn’t have possibly had it and it must have been flu as no one had it in this country till late February 2020.

Why is the idea that someone was aware/concerned in January 2020 considered surprising? The internet was starting to buzz with rumours and information from Wuhan around then and later on it was confirmed the government was being briefed on it (or not depending on who could be arsed to attend COBRA meetings).

Someone linked a thread here first one and there was a very good poster, still here - can’t recall name

Around Jan 21st

The role of social media in drawing peoples attention to the start of covid has been written about (if any one is interested) www.cambridge.org/core/journals/disaster-medicine-and-public-health-preparedness/article/limited-early-warnings-and-public-attention-to-coronavirus-disease-2019-in-china-januaryfebruary-2020-a-longitudinal-cohort-of-randomly-sampled-weibo-users/366C1FCCC82250274C1C1B64BAC9CECB) and Reddit still has a board named China flu which was pretty active before covid was called covid.

Someone having concerns in January 2020 is not a rarity.

@Bordois

Thetes a guy on one of the twitter stats thread I follow who does a similar comparison between cases and deaths now and in sept/oct last year.

Sorry but I can't take someone who censors the words "cases" and "deaths" seriously.

Given that both Oxford and Biontech start the process for the AZ and Pfizer vaccines respectively on the 10th January when China released it sequence I think people were very aware back in January just what could happen

[quote EasterIssland]@NannyAndJohn today is the day! 21st of June,
on the 4th you made a comment where you kind of called those people using a thread stupid because we liked the good news. You predicted 100k cases and 20k hospitalisations by today.

I know there was too much noise back then and just in 3 weeks time the things have turned out to be 10k and 200 cases respectively.

Now you say it'll be around August time when this will happen unless I guess some more noise comes.

Would be nice that next time instead of saying "the thread where people love to have their head in the sand" you check your data/numbers properly.[/quote]
I've explained my reasoning for the projection (not prediction) multiple times already.

And like I've said, when cases are relatively low (as they were at the time), there is more uncertainty, so the reality could have been higher or could have been lower.

Thankfully it was lower, but another time it may well be higher.

@Bythemillpond

I thought preparations would be going on behind the scenes in January 2020, and the U.K. had the best pandemic plan on he world

Why would you think that when the WHO said it hadn’t left China for most of January and everyone was looking at me strangely well into 2020 when I said I thought family had all had it in 2019.

Been told on here I couldn’t have possibly had it and it must have been flu as no one had it in this country till late February 2020.

Because it's the government's job to prepare to defend the country against potential incoming threats, and not to do bugger about it for three months then tell the country to wash its hands.

There was no reason to suppose it wasn't already here, or on its way here in January.

The government did nothing to prevent it getting here. It's not like we closed the airports to flights from China or anything. Why wouldn't it be here?