We're going to have another lockdown aren't we?

[faithfulbird20]

So yesterday we got very quick messages for 2nd vaccine 4 weeks after first and a lot of people were saying that's quick...also today school has said they're cancelling all trips too due coronavirus. I guess there's fear it will get a lot worse...honestly think it will be another year or more before things get better...

But that would have been all very well and good NannyandJohn if you had framed it like that and not as a statement of inevitability

@NannyandJohn I've explained my reasoning for the projection (not prediction) multiple times already.

And like I've said, when cases are relatively low (as they were at the time), there is more uncertainty, so the reality could have been higher or could have been lower.

Thankfully it was lower, but another time it may well be higher.

Your projection involved some questionable methodology and cherry picking of dates though...

You explained it on this thread: www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/a4262154-I-can-t-bear-the-thought-of-another-full-lockdown-but-it-seems-inevitable?msgid=107931052#107931052

04/06/2021 22:33 NannyAndJohn

RedcurrantPuff

Like “cases are doubling every 4 days”?
^^

Cases 30th May: 3077

Cases 4th June: 6328

The cases on 4th June on the data now say 5710 so perhaps they were restated. They were 6093 on 3rd June though so roughly double the 30th May figure. Doubling 6093 every 4 days would give 100k cases around now.

But...in doing this, you compared two daily case figures with no smoothing to allow for the data "noise" and no acknowledgement that the 30th May was on a BH weekend when cases are always lower.

The cases 4 days earlier still, so on 26 May, were 3799. Compare that with 6093 on 3rd June and you've got cases rising by 60% over 8 days which is very different, but funnily enough you didn't mention that.

"Data noise" is indeed an issue, so it actually would have made much more sense to compare the 7 day averages at these two dates to smooth out the daily fluctuations. 7 day average at 3rd June was around 4400 and at 30 May was around 3350. Which gives a 30% increase over the 4 days and would suggest a 7 day average now of around 12-13k. A bit higher than where we are but in the right ballpark.

But ultimately, extrapolating such a small period of data (4 days) out over a much longer period is just too unreliable. Maybe be a bit more sensible with your projection methods next time.

“ Maybe be a bit more sensible with your projection methods next time.”

Or listen to the experts … like the Twitter thread that I’ve posted above from an expert mobile.twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1406978310022774788?s=19 and when the rest of us are happy about something that looks good don’t treat us as if we were stupid

@NannyAndJohn
Sorry but I can't take someone who censors the words "cases" and "deaths" seriously

And?

@EasterIssland

“ Maybe be a bit more sensible with your projection methods next time.”

Or listen to the experts … like the Twitter thread that I’ve posted above from an expert mobile.twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1406978310022774788?s=19 and when the rest of us are happy about something that looks good don’t treat us as if we were stupid

Well, yes, that too!

@EasterIssland

“ Maybe be a bit more sensible with your projection methods next time.”

Or listen to the experts … like the Twitter thread that I’ve posted above from an expert mobile.twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1406978310022774788?s=19 and when the rest of us are happy about something that looks good don’t treat us as if we were stupid

He isn't exactly optimistic himself.

His first sentence “ I’ve updated the model with all the latest data, and it’s mostly good news ”

I think that’s optimistic. Or being realistic. Bad things will happen. But they don’t have to be as bad as they were in the past. But must be that my English is not your English

He might think that a wave of hospitalisations that eclipses the second by over 60% is good news.

But I don't.

@NannyAndJohn

He might think that a wave of hospitalisations that eclipses the second by over 60% is good news.

But I don't.

Predicted for winter 2022. Blimey loads of things can happen til then … don’t get trapped in the noise !

Winter = February I mean

@NannyAndJohn interesting choice he actually says he will come back to it.

And he does and addresses it

and gives two much more positive ones either based on vaccinating the 12=18 year olds or by his tweaking of HI threshold and if he heterogeneity’ switch on in the model, with a plausible adjustment factor of 1.5 for infection-acquired immunity

both of these models has a very small spring wave.

Or did you just see the first one

and he makes the point that by mid/late August we should know whether vaccinations of the 12-18 year olds is necessary for herd immunity

WHich makes sense as to when a decision will be made if it hasnt been cleared sooner

A week ago I’d have said no way. Now I think it’s a very real possibility and I don’t even know why, given that around 85-90% of the entire adult population will soon be double jabbed.

Someone having concerns in January 2020 is not a rarity

Pity they didn’t tell the WHO or the Chinese government.

I think the fact that it was sequenced and put online by January 10th showed that the CHinese Government did have concerns I think it was just hoping to control it

@Bythemillpond

Someone having concerns in January 2020 is not a rarity

Pity they didn’t tell the WHO or the Chinese government.

The WHO did know in January 2020…. www.who.int/news/item/29-06-2020-covidtimeline

There’s been plenty reported on China’s handling and communication too. One of the factors (outside of the cultural secrecy of the country) identified for the time it took to reach the WHO throughout December 2019 is their over-complicated bureaucracy and adherence to hierarchy, even so there was plenty of noise on their social media from medics and citizens (Weibo is the one that’s popular in China).

Sorry if something similar has already been posted, but I made an Excel graph of the 7 day rolling average of cases vs hospital admissions since March 2020 (hospitalisations are multiplied by 20 to fit them on the same axis).

Of course we are very early into this 'wave' (if that's what it turns out to be) and we don't know exactly what will happen as cases continue to rise. But I think it's hard to deny that right now the ratio looks a lot better than it did at the start of the second wave, and indeed throughout pretty much the whole pandemic so far.

No one does deny that the ratio has changed.

That's usually my whole point on these threads.

We're still in restrictions and we have a lot of people vaccinated so the ratio should be better.

But we're apparently about to end all restrictions and NPIs and allow unprecedented numbers of cases because - ahem - "Cases don't matter because the link between cases and hospitalisations/deaths has been broken"

After that point the smaller ratio of/ proportion of hospital admissions and deaths to cases has the potential to be significant numbers.

If we allow high enough cases we will get admissions similar to previous peaks.

And high cases seems to be the plan.

It’s kind of scary to have so much Covid circulating now but lockdown restrictions being progressively further lifted

@Turquoisesol

It’s kind of scary to have so much Covid circulating now but lockdown restrictions being progressively further lifted

Vaccinations offer a lot of protection so if you've been vaccinated I'd be less worried now than in January.

I am not so worried about myself individually. More worried about future prospects of Covid and what it means for the health system. Potential long covid; unknown long term Heath implications for children who will now all get Covid; future variants etc etc I am not sure what the answers are here of course but we are in an unknown position