We're going to have another lockdown aren't we?

[faithfulbird20]

So yesterday we got very quick messages for 2nd vaccine 4 weeks after first and a lot of people were saying that's quick...also today school has said they're cancelling all trips too due coronavirus. I guess there's fear it will get a lot worse...honestly think it will be another year or more before things get better...

When you look at the age profiles most affected by the current rise in infections, it's all unvaccinated groups - either kids or younger adults. The double vaccinated populations seems to be largely unaffected which is brilliant news long term.

So it makes sense for things like school trips, camps etc to be cancelled (I know PHE have given that advice to a nearby school where a few bubbles have burst in recent weeks) and for a continuation of the current pretty mild restrictions while as many people as possible get vaccinated and we increase the level of fully vaccinated as well.

The next dust up will be over teenagers - JCVI are primarily approaching from an individual cost/benefit analysis (which is their job) and it sounds like the govt are looking at it from the population level approach. Given we are now stuck with Delta which is so much more infectious and schools are currently so affected, it's an interesting political challenge.

We are where we are now mainly because the gutless government knowingly prioritised a trade deal over its people delta is now dominant. As a PP said, two doses of vaccine performs well against delta. The link between cases and hospitalisations isn't yet broken, plus every extra transmission increases the chance of a new mutation, so it's sensible to keep the lid on for now.

We need one continuous thread for this. Titled ‘Coronavirus Doom and Gloom come for a wallow in it’ or something

Don’t we just!

No I wouldn’t say so. Maybe it’s quick because lots of people have already been vaccinated? Stop worrying/fearmongering

@Tatum1234

No I don’t think so. The rate the cases are increasing is actually slowing down, the vaccine is working well so I think we’re going to have to start living with Covid now.

Early data suggests the rate of increase may be reducing, but I think it's unfair on the local health teams in the hotspots to pin all of that on vaccines!

The effort put into Bolton for example was a perfect illustration of why TTT should never have been centrally managed.

No. I read that the biggest driver of infections is in young unvaccinated people age 18-24. We will vaccinate them all soon.

Why would we need another lockdown? We just need to get people vaccinated.

I don't think so. I am actually feeling quite positive after listening to Dr Campbell's update yesterday

Great news - Dr Pollard from the Oxford Vaccine group is saying there is no evidence that immunity from the AZ vaccine is declining over time so it looks like we will be protected for longer than it was initially thought and might not even need boosters this year. In addition the big short term spike in cases that we will soon experience will provide an excellent boost to immunity for a lot of the population with limited side effects due to prior vaccination. Deaths may peak at around 40 per day but in my opinion that is not that high and after that things should improve.

My only concern is if we get a vaccine escape from a new variant but fingers crossed that does not happen.

In the UK? I don’t think so, no. Continued restrictions for a while but not a lockdown. 80% of us now have antibodies according to recent figures, and vast numbers of us are vaccinated. Most of those people are no longer “available” to be infected or would only get a short lived mild disease. The fewer people there are who are infected or available to be infected, the less opportunity there is for the virus to mutate into variants of concern. If we do get variants that escape current vaccines, the vaccine developers are standing by to produce vaccines that target them. The adenovirus (AZ) and mRNA (Pfizer) platforms are established, and can switch to a different virus sequence very easily.

Globally yes, there is a way to go, but we have billions of vaccine doses being manufactured all over the world, and people will eventually get them.

@MaybeCrazy2

I personally think so. It’s a respiratory disease, they thrive in winter so that’s when I think we will lockdown. Anywhere between November-January.

It’s not a respiratory disease.

We’ve got surprisingly far into this thread without someone who hasn’t read anything since January coming on and blurting ‘but the vaccine doesn’t stop transmission or infection!’

@MaybeCrazy2

As well as covid not being a respiratory disease, the common cold, which is a respiratory disease is most common in spring & autumn.

This complete myth regarding covid and winter needs to stop.

we are being primed for a way of life that co exists with the virus tbh

This.

Which makes sense.

Holding out for vaccines was perfectly sensible, but once that’s been achieved then returning to mostly normal life is inevitable. People would take matters into their own hands anyway.

This winter will be nerve wracking though.

I mean never say never, but barring a massively new development I doubt it on a national level. I do think schools will be closing bubbles etc. and testing/isolation/masks in enclosed public space requirements will remain in place for a while, probably spring 2022 if things remain as they are currently.

If we’d moved back with restrictions at the last announcement then maybe I’d be more concerned but we didn’t so I’m not.

@faithfulbird20

So yesterday we got very quick messages for 2nd vaccine 4 weeks after first and a lot of people were saying that's quick...also today school has said they're cancelling all trips too due coronavirus. I guess there's fear it will get a lot worse...honestly think it will be another year or more before things get better...

Look, I'm quite Covid-gloomy (lost several people last year and friend's 41 year old sister died just over a week ago) but I can't see how pushing hard for vaccines and tightening a few restrictions now makes you think we're heading for another lockdown? That's exactly what it's meant to prevent.

If we don't get our shit together and make sure vaccines reach the rest of the world then we're heading for an isolated and ropy time, but we should be able to ease things up internally pretty soon.

Now they are saying possibly no holiday quarantine for those who are double vaccinated just wait for take up to increase because everyone wants to go on holiday . And today they think cases are levelling off a bit . So I think some restrictions may stay but won’t be full lockdown ..

What worries me is that each variant is worse than the last and there is nothing to suggest that suddenly this virus is going to stop mutating. Why would it? It's a virus fighting to survive and with the means to quickly mutate into a bigger stronger version each time.
I'm a fan of the living with Covid strategy and working out how many booster shots we will each need and at what yearly or six monthly point they should be given. It is not going to disappear so instead of continual lockdowns we have to find out our best way as a world to minimise deaths and yet still have a semblance of what used to be normal life.

Wilkolampshade have you had your thyroid checked?

It’s a disease which spreads primarily (exclusively?) via the respiratory system. People spending more time indoors with windows closed will help it to spread.

(I don’t think there will be another lockdown)

They wont lockdown.

Cases are rising fast but NOT deaths and hospital admissions (and we should be seeing a rise now as we are past the 2 week window from the active case rise) which is what triggers lockdown - the vaccines are clearly working.

Mine our going on trips and residential! Thankfully!

MYbe it's your school decision?

@NCforsafety if the delta variant had hit after we’d (mostly) completed our vaccination programme and lifted restrictions it’s unlikely we would have stepped back and implemented national restrictions again based on the data we’re seeing now at a comparable point in time. We’re seeing positive results and the focus is on getting as many people protected as possible to be in the best position to keep moving forward. We lost our gains in our quick vaccination rollout when delta got a foothold because it infects faster than we can vaccinate in uncontrolled circumstances.

In the future variants will still be an issue but (fingers crossed) will lose their appeal as headline news so long as the vaccines largely hold out against them.

Part of the problem is that a lot of people (including the government) seem unsure about what lockdowns/the vaccine are meant to achieve. We vacillate between preventing all Covid deaths and stopping the health service being overwhelmed. These are quite different aims.

Yes, some people who get the new variant will die and unfortunately that includes some people who have been fully vaccinated. But unless the vaccines prove ineffective on a mass scale and hospitalisations and deaths start rising exponentially to levels which threaten to overwhelm health services again, then no I don't think there will be another lockdown. And yes failure to have another lockdown will result in some avoidable deaths. But then so will lockdown itself. There have been plenty of non-Covid victims of this pandemic.

My school running residential still, 2 counties away.

2nd vaccines were always supposed to be 3 or 4 weeks after the first - govt extended to 12 weeks so we could get more people their first jabs. Every day more and more are jabbed.

@Bluebird2021

if masks are staying then i'm going to become exempt

i work in a very hot store, wearing a mask 9 hours a day. combined with menopause and glasses its causing me some problems now

Take the bloody thing off. Not a chance I could cope with 9 hours.

Part of the problem is that a lot of people (including the government) seem unsure about what lockdowns/the vaccine are meant to achieve. We vacillate between preventing all Covid deaths and stopping the health service being overwhelmed. These are quite different aims

Different aims but both relevant. Hospital admissions eventually feed into deaths because people don’t get the same standard of care for anything if a high percentage of patients are presenting for covid treatment. This was a recognised problem before covid and will continue to be magnified now, the government will have to make choices about investing money in healthcare rather than relying on cost-savings to balance their books.

Part of the uncertainty around vaccines/lockdowns is we simply can’t know until we stress test it with real life. There isn’t a reliable answer until it’s been done.