Good News 14: Keeping our spirits up, just a bit longer.

[hugoagogo]

Has anyone got one of those graphs with the projected numbers and the actual ones loads lower? They always make me feel better.

@hugoagogo

Has anyone got one of those graphs with the projected numbers and the actual ones loads lower? They always make me feel better.

Like this?

Or this?

I'm liking this layout at the moment though

Brilliant I like the first one best.

@MRex

Piece of string size I reckon. Er... 3799 nightclubs, so say an extra 40k per week added in, call it 50k for luck.

Are There 3799 clubs in England ? Blimey ,

@OrangeBananaFish

does anyone think we may have peaked in cases on the 17th?

I really really hope so. As far as I can tell the only thing that might create any jumps will be the nightclubs opening. Most other things are pretty much the same as before. People are still wearing masks and distancing plus schools are out the end of this week (if not already finished - my DC schools break up 23rd) so that might counteract the nightclub effect hopefully?

My hope is that schools being out may cancel out the rise in cases from nightclubs. So we may stay flatish for a while before declining.

Probably a few less since lockdown to be fair. If mandatory checks on vaccination status come in, perhaps it'll go down to 12 plus 3787 new pubs with dancing.

@Bordois

16th was the first drop. I'm expecting a nightclub bounce at the end of this week and again end of next week.

Any thoughts on how much? My thinking is that those who would go clubbing would already have been mixing in bars so there's a possibility it might not be too bad.

That's what I thought, they would have been together at bars and pubs etc for the football anyway.

Did a quick calculation for another thread to answer our resident psychic and if I've got this right then the doubling time has most definitely decreased over the last couple of weeks.
looking at the government website and the weekly rates (England only I'll admit but daily numbers for UK as a whole bare out the same calculation). As of yesterday 7 day rate was 315456, half that is 157728. Looking back that number near enough corresponds to 30/6, it's now the 22nd, so current doubling time (in England) is 20-21 days

if they're happy then it's good news!

a good video representing the antibodies going up per age since feb

twitter.com/theosanderson/status/1418224366291013652

it keeps going down!

Day 2 of a drop in numbers over the same day a week ago,
13% fewer tests than a week ago but 29% fewer cases than last Friday and the weekly rate of increase has dropped to just over 10%

Doubling time is really hard (actually impossible) to calculate with the last 3 days showing drops in numbers. But we hit 18000/day on the 26th June, which would means using that as simplest method, current doubling time is 27 days. Of course that is the least nuanced way of calculating, and we may still see another increase due to nightclubs opening on Monday, but those infections should also be starting to filter in to the number now.

Oh and hospital admissions also appear to be tracking the same curve, the % increase has been starting to reduce over the last few days and is now under 30%. Deaths are still lagging, but after reaching the high 50s the percentage increase is now below 50%

36,389. Good progress, better than I hoped. Next Wednesday/ Thursday are the big test for restrictions easing IMO, then we'll see.

Had my second vaccine today

Anyone know how quickly it's meant to show on the NHS app? Just had a quick look and only my first is showing...

Mine appeared the next day IIRC

🥳

Let's hope the19th July effect isn't too bad 🤞

It's showing now! Hooray!

Lower again today - 29,173.

I'm beginning to feel cautiously optimistic again. Throughout this I have had lots of hope and (naively) believed that things would get better. However, over the last 6 weeks or so I've not been able to see the end or any positives. Even my optimistic self couldn't help thinking doom and gloom all the time, but now my optimism is starting to return again.

@OrangeBananaFish same! It has been hard to be optimistic but people are now being called out for doom with no evidence. A few threads have been deleted too - was so pleased to see this. Hate the thought of needless anxiety.
I’m planning some end of year parties 🎉

I never have anything useful to add to the thread, but follow religiously. Thank you to everyone continuing to post - I find it so helpful to balance some of the other threads I foolishly open!

It’s so hard seeing all the negativity even though I have some balance via work. I do try and speak up when people make false claims about the nhs !