Good News 14: Keeping our spirits up, just a bit longer.

[hugoagogo]

I also live in a London borough with about 400,000 population. And most definitely affected by the Delta variant. Also low vaccination rates. Only about 55% with one dose.
32 people in hospital
0 deaths in last 7 days
8 hospital admissions in last 7 days

The cases are high though.

www.thetimes.co.uk/article/experimental-heart-drug-cures-long-covid-in-hours-h0mfv3hs5

Behind a paywall sorry - but sounds hopeful?

The Mirror, sorry, but same story as The Times

www.google.com/amp/s/www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/long-covid-could-treated-experimental-24472144.amp

Case rate of growth is 42.8 today - down from 49 yesterday and 71.2 last Wednesday

From @RP131 he has updated the graph to show warwick model without the June delay (red) and with the delay (yellow). Admissions still way below what was being predicted.

The ratio of cases to hospital admissions is currently 2.8%.

Was around 8 - 9% back at the jan/Feb peak and even in May/June when cases were low it was at 4 - 5%

Vaccines work, yo!

I do believe the vaccines work and I'm very glad of it.

However, don't we need to look at the number of cases 4 weeks ago and hospitalisations 2 or 3 weeks ago, in relation to the number of deaths we have now, as that's the sort of time scale when people would have got infected and then gone to hospital etc.?

Is there a line graph somewhere that plots cases, hospitalisation and deaths on one graph?
Comparing data is not my strong point and I can't keep up with all the information.

@Bordois
Vaccines work, yo!

Is my new favourite. Love it.

Heard that quarantine free travel for the vaccinated to Amber list countries is due to be announced tomorrow. I may get to see my family soon after all!

[quote LivinLaVidaLoki]@Bordois
Vaccines work, yo!

Is my new favourite. Love it.

Heard that quarantine free travel for the vaccinated to Amber list countries is due to be announced tomorrow. I may get to see my family soon after all![/quote]
Oh, I really hope you get to go 🤞🤞🤞

I just need the kids to not need to isolate between now and when we go though 😱

@Reachersloveinterest

Is there a line graph somewhere that plots cases, hospitalisation and deaths on one graph? Comparing data is not my strong point and I can't keep up with all the information.

There was, but I can't remember where I saw it 😭

Everything crossed for you @Bordois

Saw some reassuring stats on twitter earlier (trusting they’re accurate):

January 29th July 7th
Cases 29,079 cases 32,548
Deaths 1, 245 Deaths 33
In hospital 33,847 In hospital 2,446
Hospital today 2,685 Hospital today 386
On ventilation 3,832 On ventilation 393

That didn’t format very well but hopefully you get the jist - basically we’re doing much better than jan

@Bordois we are on the same boat. 17 days to hug my mum again. 17 long days not waiting for a call from nursery

Can I ask a stupid question in the safe space that is this thread please?

News reports saying we need to be prepared for 100,000 cases a day… how? How would this be possible? I know the vaccine isn’t 100% effective, plus people who can’t or wont have it, plus under 18’s, but just how would 100,000 cases a day be possible? Surely there can’t be that many people left to infect? Is this the exit wave we just need to ride out?

@SaveWaterDrinkGin

Can I ask a stupid question in the safe space that is this thread please?

News reports saying we need to be prepared for 100,000 cases a day… how? How would this be possible? I know the vaccine isn’t 100% effective, plus people who can’t or wont have it, plus under 18’s, but just how would 100,000 cases a day be possible? Surely there can’t be that many people left to infect? Is this the exit wave we just need to ride out?

Children, vaccine breakthrough (30-40% vaccine "failure" against infection, although a lot stronger against severe infection/death), 5% of over 50s which is actually a lot of people, let alone the % in or partially vaccinated under 50...

@NightmareLoon thanks, hadn’t thought about it enough I guess. But surely as we move to all adults (who can or will be) vaccinated cases will drop?

Can someone please show me some hope that this will end, eventually? Talk of 100,000 cases a day has me feeling a bit low.

I’m sure once schools break up and as vaccination continues, this wave till be smaller and then start to decrease.

Right?

Well, cases in Scotland have been decreasing these last few days. Make of that what you will.

My view is that 100,000 cases doesn't really matter so much if 98% of them are mild. It's not the cases that matter it is the hospitalisations and the deaths. (& long covid).

One of the problems is now almost with the daily reporting. We don't get daily reports of deaths due to cancer, or heart disease. Nor do we normally get daily reporting of say flu cases.

It means 'we' (the public) are at risk of losing perspective over the level of risk. I haven't seen an 'excess deaths' chart for a while, for example.

@RP131 has done some graphs comparing various metrics when cases last hit 27k and rising on 20th December. First is deaths

The other thing is that the 'aim' of the virus isn't to kill its hosts, it is to reproduce. If it can reproduce relatively benignly it is (almost) a win-win.

And then hospital stats - admissions and people in hospital.