Deaths aren't increasing

[cripez]

Please please jump in and correct me on this if I'm being thick, but as a general rule even though cases are rising, deaths aren't.

Surely this is proof of vaccines working and therefore a good thing?

@Quartz2208

I think we are all perfectly capable of reading the graph! Do you care to explain the difference between the thick line and the dotted lines as well - the dotted lines that are the really scary ones.

ALso where is the 10% more transmissible line I cant see it?

The red 10% line is hiding behind the 20% line.

I actually think the Warwick graph is quite reassuring. Scientists are now saying it might not be as transmissible as first thought, likely to be the lower end of predictions. If it turns out to be only 10 or 20% more transmissible then actually the graph shows that the next wave will be a lot smaller and more manageable, and shouldn't need further restrictions.

@MRex

Red is 10%, about the same as 20% but ends a few weeks earlier.

Until the Warwick model is updated for the higher that expected vaccine take-up and post-vaccine transmissibility (was lower than expected, maybe higher or the same with India variant, it's unclear), I don't feel able to rely on it. Does anyone know if they're planning to update it for the next Sage meeting?

Assume it will be updated yes as the 33% 1st dose vaccine efficacy is new data. Appears we are better in terms of transmission but worse in terms of (some) vaccine escape.

Whatever any projection says too many people refuse to accept the possibilty it could go badly until we are in the shit, was the same in wave one and wave two.

So I guess we will have to either get away with it or get in a mess before we decide to do (or not do) something (anything).

@AlecTrevelyan006

deaths reported today - single figure for the 10th day in a row

24/05 - 3
23/05 - 5
22/05 - 6
21/05 - 9
20/05 - 7
19/05 - 3
18/05 - 7
17/05 - 5
16/05 - 4
15/05 - 7

Today’s reported deaths - 15

Seven day rolling average continues to fall

How does the seven day rolling average fall if today's figure is +8 on the figure from eight days ago?

@picturesandpickles

How does the seven day rolling average fall if today's figure is +8 on the figure from eight days ago?

Few days before there were some 1x deaths , i guess that’s why

@easterisland - I was just looking at the dates above and the seven days to today is 48, the seven days to yesterday is 40 - is that not how it works?

No, I get it now, is just me. I looked on the tracker and all is clear coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Back in single figures today - 9

And hospital admissions staying flat 🤞

I've been merrily watching the numbers fall at a reassuring rate over the last few weeks but feeling a little concerned today:

Positive tests up by 18% on previous week
(18744 in last 7 days, 15890 the week before)

Hospitalisations up by 10.8%
(789 in last 7 days, 712 the week before)

Deaths no change, 54 in last 7 days, 9 recorded today.

Pleeeease let this go the right way, I can't bear to see those numbers going up again

I think the numbers where always going to go up a bit now with the last relaxing, the key thing is that the hospitals are still able to cope I suppose it will take a week or two more to ensure that is still the case

Let's remember 'hospitalisation' numbers going up are not an indication of more people requiring medical intervention for serious ill health due to Covid. If there is more infection circulating people in hospital (for other reasons entirely) may catch Covid.

So % hospitalisations in isolation is fucking meaningless unless we knew that last week only 100 people needed medical assistance at hospital due to Covid and now it's 200. We have never been given that information.

Also there are many recent days where there have been no deaths connected to Covid so even these single figures are a lag.....

@Sirzy

I think the numbers where always going to go up a bit now with the last relaxing, the key thing is that the hospitals are still able to cope I suppose it will take a week or two more to ensure that is still the case

Thank you, hopefully you’re right and it is just because we’re mixing more normally again.

I’ve finally felt quite upbeat these last few weeks after a horrible year and just want it all over now!!

Hopsitalisations figures have always been a key indicator. We don't have to hyper-analyse them, it is pretty basic - rises are bad, falls are good.

Everyone will be watching over the next two or three weeks.

@Pootle40

Let's remember 'hospitalisation' numbers going up are not an indication of more people requiring medical intervention for serious ill health due to Covid. If there is more infection circulating people in hospital (for other reasons entirely) may catch Covid.

So % hospitalisations in isolation is fucking meaningless unless we knew that last week only 100 people needed medical assistance at hospital due to Covid and now it's 200. We have never been given that information.

The numbers I posted are JUST covid patients. We have had access to that information for months and months.

If you look at all healthcare data under the graph (and then click the data tab) you will also find the number of covid patients on ventilators has gone back up to 128 today.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

@Pootle40

Also there are many recent days where there have been no deaths connected to Covid so even these single figures are a lag.....

We, as in the UK, have never had a day with zero deaths recorded

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/deaths

Thanks @JulietBravo999

I am confused where does it say they are patients admitted because of Covid. It's probably a safe assumption for mechanical ventilators but aren't the other admissions people with Covid who are hospital admissions. Not people who are hospital admissions as a result of Covid....happy to be shown I'm wrong but it doesn't state that.

Also @JulietBravo999 those are deaths recorded. Precisely my point, we have had days of zero deaths but depending on when the death was recorded they are still coming through as daily deaths.....let me see if I can source it. Pretty sure either public health or nhs site shows actual deaths that did or didn't occur on those dates.

When the Deputy Chief Exec of a hospital says it's one of their busiest days ever and expresses there's a problem, they aren't in for a cut finger.
www.independent.co.uk/news/health/bolton-hospital-covid-indian-variant-b1853599.html?amp

@Pootle40 I think you are grasping at straws. Those hospitalisations are what they are.

[quote picturesandpickles]@Pootle40 I think you are grasping at straws. Those hospitalisations are what they are.[/quote]
I don't think I am. I am critically assessing what is being presented to me. Or is this another doom and gloom thread in which case I'll pop off....

[quote MRex]When the Deputy Chief Exec of a hospital says it's one of their busiest days ever and expresses there's a problem, they aren't in for a cut finger.
www.independent.co.uk/news/health/bolton-hospital-covid-indian-variant-b1853599.html?amp[/quote]
That's ok then. If it's one hospital in the Uk let's all shit ourselves

I don't think I am. I am critically assessing what is being presented to me. You're not critically assessing, you're just making stuff up!

It is what it is. It is only in a small area, but it is real and the medical professionals are not lying.