Deaths aren't increasing

[cripez]

Please please jump in and correct me on this if I'm being thick, but as a general rule even though cases are rising, deaths aren't.

Surely this is proof of vaccines working and therefore a good thing?

@CovidCorvid

Can anyone please remind me of the great website which a Mumsnetter runs which gives case numbers per local authority...she updates it every day?

It was here ==> www.covidmessenger.com/

But updates stopped on May 10th

@CovidCorvid

Can anyone please remind me of the great website which a Mumsnetter runs which gives case numbers per local authority...she updates it every day?

It's closed, but you can get all the figures here: coronavirus.data.gov.uk/. Click on a section such as cases / vaccination and then select local authority at the top (click on United Kingdom to change it).

Thanks @HangingOverTheEdge and @MRex

You're welcome. If you can't find any particular data you're looking for then post on the Data and Analysis thread, someone will help you.

deaths reported today - single figure for the 10th day in a row

24/05 - 3
23/05 - 5
22/05 - 6
21/05 - 9
20/05 - 7
19/05 - 3
18/05 - 7
17/05 - 5
16/05 - 4
15/05 - 7

Lightswitchesoffatnight

“Every time a new variant has emerged, we are told it’s more deadly, it’s more transmissible and the vaccines won’t be effective. I see a pattern emerging “

No one has said any of the new variants of concern/under investigation are more deadly.

A new variant will only “emerge” I.e. become prevelant IF it is more transmissible or evades immunity.

That’s how it works.

So yes, you are seeing a pattern. An entirely expected pattern which will continue as long as there is plenty of free transmission.

Hospital admissions in Bolton are up by 10 on yesterday, from 33 to 43. Obviously these numbers are nothing on the peak, just the wrong direction of travel.

Finally they are doing a bloody 'pilot' of helping those who can not isolate at home (people who live in bedsits etc). Experts have been asking for this for months and months, since before the second wave .

No one has said any of the new variants of concern/under investigation are more deadly.

Actually, quite a few people have said that about the Brazil, South African and Indian variants. It hasn’t turned out to be true but it starts a decent panic all the same.

There have been no deaths in Scotland for 11 days in a row. Things are looking good.

@everythingthelighttouches

Lightswitchesoffatnight

“Every time a new variant has emerged, we are told it’s more deadly, it’s more transmissible and the vaccines won’t be effective. I see a pattern emerging “

No one has said any of the new variants of concern/under investigation are more deadly.

A new variant will only “emerge” I.e. become prevelant IF it is more transmissible or evades immunity.

That’s how it works.

So yes, you are seeing a pattern. An entirely expected pattern which will continue as long as there is plenty of free transmission.

No one has said any of the new variants of concern/under investigation are more deadly

You must have missed it, do keep up.

A new variant will only “emerge” I.e. become prevelant IF it is more transmissible or evades immunity.

Viruses mutate all the time, that's what they do.

You don't need any evidence of a government cover up @Wellbythebloodyhell

The government isn't sharing the list of schools that have Indian variant or any other covid outbreaks.

That's just an incontrovertible fact.

If you ask enough people with school age children in enough places you can piece a few dozen of them.

But our government aren't giving us the full list.

P.S. my Uncle's area in Hampshire has gone into surge testing for the Indian variant now.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/breaking-surge-testing-deployed-three-24174238.amp?fbclid=IwAR3HPIqvsBh5c0jDCelTCcSoNd0CootjLZKcJVh3QgAdZCd4G6rUrNykoXo&twitterrimpression=true

Gosh still on about this. Ffs

@PrincessNutNuts

You don't need any evidence of a government cover up *@Wellbythebloodyhell*

The government isn't sharing the list of schools that have Indian variant or any other covid outbreaks.

That's just an incontrovertible fact.

If you ask enough people with school age children in enough places you can piece a few dozen of them.

But our government aren't giving us the full list.

P.S. my Uncle's area in Hampshire has gone into surge testing for the Indian variant now.

[[https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/breaking-surge-testing-deployed-three-24174238.amp?fbclid=IwAR3HPIqvsBh5c0jDCelTCcSoNd0CootjLZKcJVh3QgAdZCd4G6rUrNykoXo&]]twitterrimpression=true

Have they ever shared information on what variant of the virus has been found in school or is this a new thing? Not something I've taken much notice of before tbh. And as I said previously If this info can easily be found locally by going on the blower what's the need for it to be nationally publicised if the information Is there for those locally who to whom it involves. What relevance is to me knowing a school 100 miles away closed because of the Indian variant as opposed to any other variant?
A positive case is a positive case regardless off which variant it is, our response to them all in terms of isolating etc is exactly the same

But our government aren't giving us the full list

Why do you need to know? What relevance is it to you? The government release the daily positive cases if any of them cases were relative to you and your family then you'd know about it either by PHE , test and trace or by being on the blower to your nearest and dearest

@Wellbythebloodyhell

But our government aren't giving us the full list

Why do you need to know? What relevance is it to you? The government release the daily positive cases if any of them cases were relative to you and your family then you'd know about it either by PHE , test and trace or by being on the blower to your nearest and dearest

This is incredibly naive. Are people really this gullible? Of course we should know what is happening.

I see they've quietly asked eight large council areas to stop travelling/socialising tonight, and are doing surge testing in SE too.

@Wellbythebloodyhell

But our government aren't giving us the full list

Why do you need to know? What relevance is it to you? The government release the daily positive cases if any of them cases were relative to you and your family then you'd know about it either by PHE , test and trace or by being on the blower to your nearest and dearest

There's absolutely no reason why anyone would need to know that a new variant with higher transmissibility and some vaccine escape was spreading through schools in their local area, none at all.

Children famously don't go in shops, restaurants, hairdressers, or leisure centres etc.

And children don't have older or younger brothers and sisters at other schools, and don't do sports, classes and activities with children from other schools so it's really only relevant to people at those schools and no one else. No public interest here.

It's not as if it's going to spread or anything.

It's definitely probably nothing to worry about that the government are refusing to tell anyone, and certainly not a bad sign. At all.

@blueangel19

Gosh still on about this. Ffs

The pandemic?

Yeah.

Lowest deaths (7 day average) since 15th March 2020

@Flaxmeadow

Lowest deaths (7 day average) since 15th March 2020

This has got to be good news. I’m keeping everything crossed that the jabs do their job and the numbers stay low.

Thought this tweet overlaying where we are currently on to the previous two waves sums it up. We all can see where we are currently (low deaths, cases just starting to rise from low base), what we don't know is where we will be by July: mobile.twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1396568757892489217

I understand why people are keeping fingers crossed but there is much the government could do to improve our chances, I wish they would focus instead of pretending there's no risk. As a country we've been through so much, and a lot could have been avoided with more prompt government action.

That's the SAGE graph btw, he just added the arrow I think. But that is why experts are concerned even though current deaths are low.

@picturesandpickles

That's the SAGE graph btw, he just added the arrow I think. But that is why experts are concerned even though current deaths are low.

Yep, that's the Warwick modelling fur SAGE which assumes full protection from vaccines, but a more transmissible variant.

The different size peaks depend on how much more transmissible it is.

The horizontal lines indicate the size of our previous peaks.

I think we are all perfectly capable of reading the graph! Do you care to explain the difference between the thick line and the dotted lines as well - the dotted lines that are the really scary ones.

ALso where is the 10% more transmissible line I cant see it?

@Bordois

What, no warwick wave of doom chart?

I am disappointed 😞

Yes! 🥳

Red is 10%, about the same as 20% but ends a few weeks earlier.

Until the Warwick model is updated for the higher that expected vaccine take-up and post-vaccine transmissibility (was lower than expected, maybe higher or the same with India variant, it's unclear), I don't feel able to rely on it. Does anyone know if they're planning to update it for the next Sage meeting?