Does anyone else think we may end up with yet another lockdown

[Lemonwoe]

I really hope not; the last few were quite hideous. But I can’t help feeling that we are going to end up with another lockdown before the end of term (Scotland: so before 1st July) just hoping that the vaccination program is completed really soon

Sadly, I think we will. I give another month or two. The Indian variant has started to spread and we know it’s 60% more contagious, and more dangerous. With things opening up around the same time, particularly if we get some sun and better weather in the days ahead, this variant will spread. And vaccines won’t help because not everyone will have gotten both their shots within the next few weeks even with the ramped up programme. Not to mention we don’t know for sure how much the vaccine protects against new variant.

@IcedPurple

"Can I ask where you were living last summer?"

It was Britain -- London actually. And walking by dozens of restaurants packed cheek to jowl with those taking advantage of EOTHO certainly felt to me like I was living in a place where the majority were pretending we weren't in the midst of a pandemic fueled by a virus spread primarily by breathing the same air as others in poorly ventilated spaces.

"Covid's not going to 'run rampant' though is it? Most adults have been vaccinated and that number increases every day."

It might do, we don't really know yet. As Whitty said in the press conference on Friday, they don't know exactly how this variant will change the course. IF it is much more transmissible, it could run rampant among the adults and children who haven't been vaccinated. That's a big group currently, and it includes people who are high risk but haven't had the jab and low risk but who will end up in hospital anyway. A certain percentage of fully vaccinated people will also fall ill -- the vaccine doesn't protect each individual to 100%, so if lots of people who have been jabbed are exposed to COVID the small percentage of those who still fall very ill could still add up to a large number of people.

All of these variables are unknown really -- we don't know to what percentage each vaccine protects each person, and we don't know exactly how much more transmissible the Indian variant will be.

It may not end up throwing us massively off course -- but the risk is there until we know more, so it's silly to ignore it or pretend that a third lockdown is impossible.

It was Britain -- London actually. And walking by dozens of restaurants packed cheek to jowl with those taking advantage of EOTHO certainly felt to me like I was living in a place where the majority were pretending we weren't in the midst of a pandemic fueled by a virus spread primarily by breathing the same air as others in poorly ventilated spaces.

If these restaurants were packed 'cheeck to jowl' then you should have reported them as they would have been in breach of SD guidelines which, despite what you appear to believe, were very much still in place last summer and indeed remain still in place.

It may not end up throwing us massively off course -- but the risk is there until we know more, so it's silly to ignore it or pretend that a third lockdown is impossible.

It's also silly to posit the theoretical worst case scenario as though it were the most likely one. There are always risks in life. It seems many have forgotten that.

Im all for Lockdown 4 if the supermarket workers and Amazon delivery drivers get to stay home too. There is a social housing thread on AIBU doing the usual thing of denigrating tenants forgetting that a lot of key workers live in social housing.

I’m in the north and about 20 mins from Bolton so I imagine there will be a few local lockdowns. Fully prepared for it to happen but I hope it wont.

@IcedPurple there was very little enforcement. Where I live when it was table service only, a local pub had crowds standing around at the bar. It was visited four times, advice was given. Only then was there enforcement action. I have seen lots of places ignoring the rules, from staff walking round inside with masks on their chins, to being told by staff when I am sitting outside with people I do not live with that I can come inside (when this was illegal). I suspect anyone who thinks the rules are being followed by most places has not been getting out much.

[quote castemary]@IcedPurple there was very little enforcement. Where I live when it was table service only, a local pub had crowds standing around at the bar. It was visited four times, advice was given. Only then was there enforcement action. I have seen lots of places ignoring the rules, from staff walking round inside with masks on their chins, to being told by staff when I am sitting outside with people I do not live with that I can come inside (when this was illegal). I suspect anyone who thinks the rules are being followed by most places has not been getting out much.[/quote]
I don't agree that there was very little enforcement last summer, but I'm not going to trade anecdotes with you.

I do agree that compliance with de rulz has dropped over the months, but that's hardly surprising.

There have been enforcement amongst the public by the police. But very little enforcement on businesses.
And plenty of hospitality businesses have not been following many of the rules since the beginning.
I have only been in one pub that strictly enforced everything. Most places are lax to different degrees.

@castemary

There have been enforcement amongst the public by the police. But very little enforcement on businesses. And plenty of hospitality businesses have not been following many of the rules since the beginning. I have only been in one pub that strictly enforced everything. Most places are lax to different degrees.

Like I say, I disagree but I don't see the point in trading unverifiable anecdotes with you.

I am not talking about anecdotes. Look up enforcement action against businesses. There has been very little. Even where there are repeated breaches publicised in local papers.

There will be calls every winter from the 'independent' sage and 'no risk is acceptable' types to implement lockdowns to 'save lives and protect the NHS

Then the UK should be renamed Narnia where its always winter but never Christmas.

@castemary

There have been enforcement amongst the public by the police. But very little enforcement on businesses. And plenty of hospitality businesses have not been following many of the rules since the beginning. I have only been in one pub that strictly enforced everything. Most places are lax to different degrees.

This hasn't been my experience. I can only think of one place I've visited which were a little lax with the rules. Everywhere else has been excellent

Well if they do, I hope the government is prepared to give me the sixty grandsworth of advance bookings I have taken for the forthcoming season, which I will have to turn around and give back.

And do that for 100s of 1000s of other small businesses.

Who is going to pay for that? Oh I know, let's print more money. Nothing ever bad happened as a result of that.

Any bright ideas?

@DelBocaVista are you well off and visiting expensive restaurants?

No this is not going to happen every winter. At the beginning WHO said it would last two years. We are not there yet.

[quote castemary]@DelBocaVista are you well off and visiting expensive restaurants?[/quote]
Nope.

I'm talking a mix of local pubs, family restaurants and small establishments like our local cricket club

@HesterShaw1

Well if they do, I hope the government is prepared to give me the sixty grandsworth of advance bookings I have taken for the forthcoming season, which I will have to turn around and give back.

And do that for 100s of 1000s of other small businesses.

Who is going to pay for that? Oh I know, let's print more money. Nothing ever bad happened as a result of that.

Any bright ideas?

The money-printing is really starting to alarm me now. The sums involved make my brain hurt.

The money-printing is really starting to alarm me now. The sums involved make my brain hurt.

Yet it seems like there are still so many people who fail to grasp the fact that this matters. And that we need a functioning economy for tax receipts.

@HesterShaw1

The money-printing is really starting to alarm me now. The sums involved make my brain hurt.

Yet it seems like there are still so many people who fail to grasp the fact that this matters. And that we need a functioning economy for tax receipts.

Yes I agree still people don’t get this.

Each sector has had extortionate needs.

So when people say they should read open the idea that one sector has already had say £7bn (airline) has to be multiplied across all.

I hope not, because lockdowns are a sign that you have failed to control this thorugh public health measures.

I understand entirely about the economic fears and the awfulness of lockdown itself, but is there a chance we mght be asked to do it again? Yes, I think there is a chance.

@savethegrannies

The money is running out. Really not sure they can afford more lockdowns unless we want to end up like the Weimar Republic in the 20s.

Exactly this @savethegrannies.

If anyone doesn't actually know, they should google Germany in 1923.

@Solasta

Also in Scotland and think it'll head that way, at least for the central belt.

I just hope that whatever they do they prioritise keeping schools and nurseries open.

Oh god I know , these poor kids , let’s hope it doesn’t get to that stage again of schools closure.