Does anyone else think we may end up with yet another lockdown

[Lemonwoe]

I really hope not; the last few were quite hideous. But I can’t help feeling that we are going to end up with another lockdown before the end of term (Scotland: so before 1st July) just hoping that the vaccination program is completed really soon

@bumbleymummy

Know that it’s 60% more contagious I mean

SAGE have a high confidence that it's at least 50% more contagious. Tom Wenseleers is confident of his 60%. We'll know for sure pretty soon.

SAGE have a high confidence that it's at least 50% more contagious. Tom Wenseleers is confident of his 60%. We'll know for sure pretty soon

Can you post a link to that? Becayse wittty and sage are saying they don’t know yet and it is likely to be only marginally more transmissable but with a realistic possibility of up to 50 percent, they just don’t know yet.

So would be great for you to share the link

@Bluntness100

SAGE have a high confidence that it's at least 50% more contagious. Tom Wenseleers is confident of his 60%. We'll know for sure pretty soon

Can you post a link to that? Becayse wittty and sage are saying they don’t know yet and it is likely to be only marginally more transmissable but with a realistic possibility of up to 50 percent, they just don’t know yet.

So would be great for you to share the link

I was not aware of this 60% figure so googled his name and there are media articles easily available.

Still caveats about amount of data but I didnt interpret Whitty as saying it was 'likely' to be one way or the other.

Waiting for data is quite hard, the increase in cases since last week wasn't inspiring.

If the new variant has an r of 6, 3x more infectious than the original, it will run rampant through schools and universities unless we vaccinate young people.

I cannot see a way that schools won’t end up closing, whether by government diktat or just too many sick children.

OTOH, with most adults vaccinated and if the new variant does not achieve vaccine escape, we may avoid a lockdown due to low hospitalisation rates.

With rates as low as they are this is the point at which our world-beating Test, Trace and Isolate programme should be leaping into action and really working to keep this under control.

There is some early evidence that people who have immunity after previous infection also have protection against the Indian variant - in line with those who have been vaccinated. Source

Although children/young people haven’t been vaccinated, many of them have been infected so they may already have some protection against this strain to stop it ‘running rampant’.

our world-beating Test, Trace and Isolate programme should be leaping into action

😖😂😖😂😖😂

If it was going to have done anything it should have about 3 weeks ago. It's too widespread now

@PrincessNutNuts @Bluntness100

"SAGE have a high confidence that it's at least 50% more contagious. Tom Wenseleers is confident of his 60%. We'll know for sure pretty soon."

No - they have said there is a reasonable possibility which in science terms is less than 50% - if I can recall correctly it is 25-50% likely. So no, not 'high confidence' nut nuts.

@StealthPolarBear

With rates as low as they are this is the point at which our world-beating Test, Trace and Isolate programme should be leaping into action and really working to keep this under control.

Oh yes, we should thank our lucky stars for Servo the saviours!

Wtf is servo? SERCO

Sounds harsh but the world can't grind to stop because healthy people spend a week in bed and then recover

I won't be complying with it if there's another one. They don't work. There isn't the manpower to enforce them. Fuck that.

I think you’ll find @osbertthesyrianhamster they do work hence why numbers dropped so dramatically from the start of the year. What they don’t do is eradicate the disease because as you so clearly state yourself, people won’t follow the rules so there will always be those who keep passing it on.

@PeriMisabastard

I think you’ll find *@osbertthesyrianhamster* they do work hence why numbers dropped so dramatically from the start of the year. What they don’t do is eradicate the disease because as you so clearly state yourself, people won’t follow the rules so there will always be those who keep passing it on.

So stay locked down forever? It passes on because it's respiratory and as long people have to breathe respiratory viruses will exist in the human population. Lockdowns aren't compatible with human life and society.

@Dontforgetyourbrolly

Sounds harsh but the world can't grind to stop because healthy people spend a week in bed and then recover

Yes completely agree. If hospitalisations stay manageable there is no need for lockdown. Looks like the vaccines work against the variant so hopefully it shouldn't matter if cases rise.

@osbertthesyrianhamster

I won't be complying with it if there's another one. They don't work. There isn't the manpower to enforce them. Fuck that.

I wouldn't comply with another one either. I stopped complying before the end of the last one when my mental health became more important. I'm not putting myself through another one, luckily everyone I know feels the same so looks like I will have people to keep seeing if it were to happen.

@Slowdownandsee yes obviously I realise it’s the NHS. I was asking how you managed to get the vaccine if you are youngish? Age 35’s are only just being called up?
If your partner has had 2 jabs already, how come? Not many 30 with no health problems somethings have had two jabs?

*Not many 30 somethings

What they don’t do is eradicate the disease because as you so clearly state yourself, people won’t follow the rules so there will always be those who keep passing it on.

Infectious diseases aren't eradicated through people following arbitrary 'rules'. Only one human disease has ever been eradicated, and that's smallpox. There's no question of 'eradicating' Covid, so we have to get on with life.

This fear of sickness seems to be a recent phenomenon. As a human being you have to expect to be ill , in fact our bodies are designed to get sick when we encounter a virus .
Not sure if it's misinformation , lack of comprehension or plain fear but there are so many people now willing to hide away indefinitely so they never get ill.
Yes of course there are vulnerable people, and that has always been the case . If I have a cold , flu, stomach bug I will always have said to an elderly person, pregnant lady , those with newborns " I won't visit you today I don't want to pass anything on , I'll see you when I'm better "
The general public these days seem to think we are immortal gods or something.

@Dontforgetyourbrolly

This fear of sickness seems to be a recent phenomenon. As a human being you have to expect to be ill , in fact our bodies are designed to get sick when we encounter a virus . Not sure if it's misinformation , lack of comprehension or plain fear but there are so many people now willing to hide away indefinitely so they never get ill. Yes of course there are vulnerable people, and that has always been the case . If I have a cold , flu, stomach bug I will always have said to an elderly person, pregnant lady , those with newborns " I won't visit you today I don't want to pass anything on , I'll see you when I'm better " The general public these days seem to think we are immortal gods or something.

Fear of sickness is as old as humans. We just have better options now.

Fortunes were made selling fake remedies and people killed themselves with poisonous cures!

I think we are more likely to go to work now than previously, loads of people ignore NHS advice to stay home when they have sickness for example.

I think fear is a big factor. A year of scary stories in the news while keeping people isolated has created some deep rooted anxiety that is going to take a long time to shift.

@picturesandpickles yes you are right
I guess I meant an irrational fear that is put above every thing .

And they now need to give people a choice of vaccine - most people who are hesitant about a particular vaccine will accept another

I doubt there will be the need for another national lockdown but fully expect to go in-and-out of local restrictions for a while yet. I would tolerate short-term, local restrictions if it keeps things more generally up-and-running in the rest of the country.