Data, Stats & Daily Numbers started 9th May

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
CovidMessanger has a been a great daily resource but will cease until further notice from May 10th. I hope the thread speaks on behalf of the very many posters and lurkers who have greatly valued this service when we say a huge thank you to littleowl for all her work in creating and sharing it.

So we’re back to tiers without actually telling anyone we are back to tiers?

Good point Rafa. Although was the tiers guidance in fact law, I can’t remember now?

Layla Moran, chair of the all party parliamentary coronavirus group, isn’t very impressed with the non-announcement:

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-57232728

Bedford is an area very isolated from the other areas. It is literally not possible that most people in Bedford are not going to travel in or out of Bedford into or out of the neighbouring MK or Central Beds, at the very least to do the weekly shop!

Oh, and the pubs remain open - indoors- and cinemas etc in these areas...?

That BBC website says that it unclear if the new government statements are advisory or legally binding.

"She said it was "not clear" whether "this is advisory or legally obligatory" and described the move as "incompetence" on the part of the government."

Piggy Is this some different Bedford? I visited once, and it's got better access to supermarket choice than my London borough?

Not that I agree that such guidance makes any sense, communicated effectively or prevents lots and lots of very good necessary reasons to leave, it's just the idea the big town is lacking supermarkets!

It’s not law, it’s guidance (for now)
There was an individual statutory instrument for every area under local restrictions last summer/autumn - these were then all replaced by another statutory instrument for the tiers system after the November firebreak, and currently we have the “steps” legislation which still says that every area in England is in step 3. I can’t see that there have been any new statutory instruments published (relating to COVID restrictions) since then.

www.legislation.gov.uk/coronavirus

If they were going to make this legally binding they’d have to either release a new statutory instrument or amend the steps legislation to create some kind of “step 2b” and put these areas back into that.

Absolutely insane to do this on the sly without letting anyone know. What’s the point of a policy if it isn’t communicated?
I reckon it was probably a relatively lowly person updating the website to ask people in those areas to be cautious (which is fair enough but doesn’t really mean anything) and the government is as surprised by the new no-go zones as the rest of us.

Very odd. Hancock mentioned everything else in a long statement on 19th May, he surely would have said something about travel if it was under consideration: www.gov.uk/government/speeches/health-and-social-care-secretarys-statement-on-coronavirus-covid-19-19-may-2021.
I think either someone overstepped their brief in writing the section, or the government were waiting to see this Thursday's figures before announcing it. Guidance isn't law, and being careful is sensible, but no travel is a bit much for such low cases unless there's another big increase hiding. I really think it's time to move away from any restrictions or even guidance at least on people outside though, we've no evidence of people catching covid outside and everyone's had enough of not seeing family.

The point is fred that Bedford has supermarkets ... the outlying villages and towns don't so constant travel in and out. It is also on a main train line to London.

In terms of other retail, Bedford is run down, so a day's retail therapy would be in Northants or MK.

Yes Northants DPH, on local radio this morning, reminded us of the influx of people from higher tier areas in December to shop at our shiny relatively new Rushden Lakes shopping centre.

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-deaths-in-hospitals-b1853184.html?amp

32,307 caught covid in hospital and 8700 of them died (not necessarily of covid, but let's assume it increased their risk of dying. Figures from 81 of 126 trusts, so possibly 1/3 more.

It's very hard to keep infections entirely controlled when someone could be incubating the virus and then test positive after admission. That seems like really quite a low number of both cases and deaths to me, yet the papers each seem to be presenting it as a scandal, what do others think?

@MRex

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-deaths-in-hospitals-b1853184.html?amp

32,307 caught covid in hospital and 8700 of them died (not necessarily of covid, but let's assume it increased their risk of dying. Figures from 81 of 126 trusts, so possibly 1/3 more.

It's very hard to keep infections entirely controlled when someone could be incubating the virus and then test positive after admission. That seems like really quite a low number of both cases and deaths to me, yet the papers each seem to be presenting it as a scandal, what do others think?

At the height of the pandemic I was really worried about older family members being admitted to hospital for other reasons (my dad is CEV) then potentially catching covid when there. I do think it's something that needs to be fully acknowledged by the government (which means it almost certainly won't be). But yeah I think the numbers are lower than I thought they could have been and as the article points out many of those could have died with covid not of covid (same goes for many of the total number of people who died)

I'd like to know how these numbers compared with people who died because they never got to go to hospital because their operations and treatments were delayed. I think that could be a far bigger scandal but probably even harder to quantify.

so despite the guidance changing on friday, 8,000 presumably mostly oblivious fans travelled from all across the country to the Leicester City match on Sunday. You'd think that if the government really was serious about this new guidance they'd have done something about that.

There are stats through ONS for additional strokes, heart attacks at home etc. There were also fewer deaths in hospital, so some who died at home might have stayed there rather than go in to hospital or hospice (especially if it means family can't be with you and it's known end of life care). I think early on some of these could have been covid because the clotting risks and heart inflammation risks weren't really known about, borne out by the excess deaths being higher at that time. So in that respect it's tricky to separate them.

I think it'll be a year or two before there can be realistic research on how much cancer and other long-term health outcomes were affected. The effects will still be happening through this year and next year because of delays. So while we don't have excess deaths right now (fewer in fact, because of less road traffic accidents etc), delayed treatment is causing future deaths. I don't know how it can be avoided, there are only a certain number of doctors, equipment etc. What we need long-term are more facilities and medical staff; someone will have to bite the bullet on that. Boris promised something like 20 new hospitals, is that still on the table in government plans (and how will they be staffed)?

The article reports from March 2020. When did hospitals get reliable PCR tests and then rapid PCR tests (which were limited to a dozen or so a day at first?).

With 1 in 3 people asymptomatic and an incubation period of 14 days it's hardly surprising that Covid spread in hospitals where people vulnerable to infection tend to be.

Yes, it would be interesting to know how many would have survived had they not caught Covid, but that would likely be a much less scandalous headline.

@Frazzled2207

so despite the guidance changing on friday, 8,000 presumably mostly oblivious fans travelled from all across the country to the Leicester City match on Sunday. You'd think that if the government really was serious about this new guidance they'd have done something about that.

So the rest of the country is not unsettled by much worrying reporting of some new restrictions (and they can go out and spend).

But people in hotspots like Leicester have had "official guidance" (so if they don't follow the guidance, possibly because they don't know about it) the onus is on them?

And also, incompetence, usually a good explanation for this sort of thing.

I'd missed that Novovax started child vaccination trials, in case others did too: medicalxpress.com/news/2021-05-novavax-covid-vaccine-trials-children.amp.
I'm personally hopeful that Novovax will be lowest side effects and therefore actually most suitable for children, based only on peeking at bits of trial info. Interested to know what others think.

@ceeveebee

It’s not law, it’s guidance (for now) There was an individual statutory instrument for every area under local restrictions last summer/autumn - these were then all replaced by another statutory instrument for the tiers system after the November firebreak, and currently we have the “steps” legislation which still says that every area in England is in step 3. I can’t see that there have been any new statutory instruments published (relating to COVID restrictions) since then.

www.legislation.gov.uk/coronavirus

If they were going to make this legally binding they’d have to either release a new statutory instrument or amend the steps legislation to create some kind of “step 2b” and put these areas back into that.

Thanks for that reassurance. I consider myself quite rational about Covid and have a science background but it is surprising how anxious you can feel when there's a high stakes situation imminent.

@Frazzled2207, that is utterly ludicrous. Both that the government appears to expect people to know its guidance via some form of telepathy, and also that events such as this are still allowed to go ahead in those areas.

The government is literally contradicting itself.

@MRex

I'd missed that Novovax started child vaccination trials, in case others did too: medicalxpress.com/news/2021-05-novavax-covid-vaccine-trials-children.amp. I'm personally hopeful that Novovax will be lowest side effects and therefore actually most suitable for children, based only on peeking at bits of trial info. Interested to know what others think.

I'm on the trial - (the grown up one not the child on). It's been a bit of a disaster tbh, we were told it would be approved by April but still no sign (July is currently the most optimistic guess). And now we have zero indication at all as to how it will work with the Indian variant.

Putting the Indian variant aside though, I have a high degree of confidence in it. I had zero side effects, though seem to be in the minority with that (I've definitely had it).

Not just the shops at Rushden Lakes either. It's the closest cinema and restaurant for a lot of Bedford Borough!

Interesting to listen to the discussion about whether people should bring forward their second vaccines or not. I saw a post in a local facebook group (buy a member of the public) advising people to check Swiftqueue as their 2nd dose appt had been brought forward without them being notified. Loads of replies along the lines of "I've just checked and so has mine". I looked and mine's moved from 11 week gap to 9.7 week gap - and no notification. One woman had posted to say hers had moved 5 times! It's really poor that this is happening without any notifications, I wonder how many appointments are being missed? It may be worth you checking!

@MRex

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-deaths-in-hospitals-b1853184.html?amp

32,307 caught covid in hospital and 8700 of them died (not necessarily of covid, but let's assume it increased their risk of dying. Figures from 81 of 126 trusts, so possibly 1/3 more.

It's very hard to keep infections entirely controlled when someone could be incubating the virus and then test positive after admission. That seems like really quite a low number of both cases and deaths to me, yet the papers each seem to be presenting it as a scandal, what do others think?

I think it's absolutely a scandal.

Apologies for an anecdote in a data thread but my DM was admitted from a care home in early March last year with a chest infection and moved around three different wards over the next two weeks whilst the hospital juggled beds for their official covid patients. Almost inevitably she caught covid during week three and didn't survive. A situation that happened to thousands of frail patients who were seen as collateral damage in an attempt to maintain a pipeline of acute beds.

The political pressure to free up beds meant that infection prevention measures were ignored not enhanced. It's not so much about the lack of PPE which is also an atrocious failing, but about the fact that people were moved when they should not have been.

Sorry for ranting. I may have also shared my thoughts with CQC.

Some preliminary results on mixing vaccines.
Essentailly an increase in what they term mild or moderate reactions but no serious ones. The cohort being tested are over 50 so they anticipate younger people would have more reaction.