Under 40s may also be advised to avoid AZ

[MimiPigeon]

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/08/vaccines-advice-could-still-change-30s-jcvi-suggests/

Sorry I don’t have a share token. But it looks like JCVI is suggesting that people in their 30s may also be advised not to take AZ. This could be a game changer for 30 somethings who are still trying to make a decision about whether to get vaccinated in the near future.

Would make sense, other countries are saying no under 55s or no under 65. France is also now saying no second dose to those under 55 who have already had first dose. The AZ vaccine problems are just going to grow.

The article is firewalled. But the JCVI or MHRA could change recommendations at any time about any vaccine and who it should be used for. They do it with other vaccines all the time.

What point are you trying to make ?

Why can't they just say under 55s or under 65s like a lot of other countries? It's making me and DH really nervous - we are 45. Will still get the vaccine as I understand the risk/benefit thing but I don't understand why our approach is so radically different to that of other countries. I think it's because we have bought a lot of AZ and the government doesn't want to slow the rollout but maybe I'm being cynical.

I'm very pro vax and check the national booking site daily, but I have to say I'd much rather have an alternative to AZ even if that meant waiting a couple of weeks longer. I will make an appointment when invited, and I will of course accept AZ if that's what's on offer, but I wish the UK was being consistent with other countries here.

@Daisydoor12

Would make sense, other countries are saying no under 55s or no under 65. France is also now saying no second dose to those under 55 who have already had first dose. The AZ vaccine problems are just going to grow.

Yes. Especially if we follow the French approach. Low vaccination, mixed and ill informed messages along with a fourth wave.

Follow the Europeans and we will reduce a rare incidence but gain hundreds of COVID deaths. Yippee.

Lemon yep people are losing perspective

Also posting heavily re AZ without thinking about why we are in a good position right now.

Well if we carry in with the current AZ regime, there will be severe clot reactions in a tiny number. Say in the 40-50 age group. I’m not able to do the numbers but given very low covid numbers plus their tiny risk
From covid anyway, it’s going to be a right bigger of it’s you isn’t it.

If that is a risk worth taking surely depends on your risk from covid

It makes me very uncomfortable that we will see people dying from this clotting problem and then the government change its stance again.

I think you’d be a foolish 30-40 something to reject the AZ vaccine and risk severe / long Covid instead. Long covid often is caused by increased clotting in women - and is much more common than CVST. You also need to remember that AZ has the most complete side effect profile out of all the vaccines due to numbers vaccinated - Moderna’s side effects just aren’t known yet. What happens when that too causes blood clots?

@Roonerspismed

Well if we carry in with the current AZ regime, there will be severe clot reactions in a tiny number. Say in the 40-50 age group. I’m not able to do the numbers but given very low covid numbers plus their tiny risk From covid anyway, it’s going to be a right bigger of it’s you isn’t it.

If that is a risk worth taking surely depends on your risk from covid

It makes me very uncomfortable that we will see people dying from this clotting problem and then the government change its stance again.

It’s not a government decision. At all. The MHRA and JCVI decide on what is recommended. The government can’t do anything about it other than source other vaccines and plan around that supply.

I think you are naive at best if you think there isn’t a two way conversation with the government here

We are one of the few regulators not to restrict on a lower age and we just happen to have set our vaccine strategy on the AZ vaccine? And we just happened not to have noticed 74 cases of this clotting issue until a few weeks ago.

Does anyone actually believe that?!

I’m not able to do the numbers but given very low covid numbers plus their tiny risk
From covid anyway, it’s going to be a right bigger of it’s you isn’t it

I’m not able to do the numbers either but just wanted to point out that this part of the equation is variable. Right now we have low numbers but that’s not a locked in fact and carries a high chance of changing. If people are using that as part of their reasoning then they need to consider that.

@Roonerspismed

I think you are naive at best if you think there isn’t a two way conversation with the government here

We are one of the few regulators not to restrict on a lower age and we just happen to have set our vaccine strategy on the AZ vaccine? And we just happened not to have noticed 74 cases of this clotting issue until a few weeks ago.

Does anyone actually believe that?!

What do you think about the relative positions of U.K. and France wrt numbers?

It's my feeling that the MHRA is taking into consideration that we wouldn't have enough doses of Pfizer/Moderna to have two jabs for all the under 60 (or under 65) so in their balance of risk/benefit, they are acknowledging that the risk of dying from covid for people between 30 and 60 would be much higher than having the risks of developing blood clots. Other countries that have decided not to use the AZ vaccine for under 60 (or 55, or 65) have ordered sufficient number of other vaccine doses.

Canada is a good example, they've been using mostly Pfizer and Moderna and have access to few doses of AZ, so for them it was a quick and simple decision to not offer AZ to those under 55. THeir vaccination program has been slower than the UK and they are entering their third phase now, but even if they would still be offering the AZ vaccine to everyone there wouldn't be enough doses to make the vaccination program go faster.

It's a very fine balance isn't it. I wouldn't be surprised that if we can get a hand on more Moderna doses, the age will be changed to under 40 year olds.

@Roonerspismed

I think you are naive at best if you think there isn’t a two way conversation with the government here

We are one of the few regulators not to restrict on a lower age and we just happen to have set our vaccine strategy on the AZ vaccine? And we just happened not to have noticed 74 cases of this clotting issue until a few weeks ago.

Does anyone actually believe that?!

Yes I do. We don’t know the ins and outs of the case files and how these people presented. HCP’s carried out reviews of cases to find them.

From the small amount of reading I’ve done on SVT’s it wasn’t an obvious diagnosis in pre-covid times so I could well envisage a scenario it wasn’t something that was been looked for. A lot of diagnoses depend on who’s looking for what. Medicine isn’t an exact science.

Another fine point, Canada hasn't had any case of blood clothing with AZ (as far as I know) they based their decision on international data (Finland, Norway, France, Germany, etc) but the UK's decision is based only on UK cases. I think that's bad science personally, that the UK isn't taking into consideration cases from other countries.

What point are you trying to make?
Many 30-40 year olds are debating whether or not to be vaccinated considering the risks of AZ, which is the vaccine they’re likely to be offered. Now it’s possible they won’t have to make that decision because there’s a suggestion that AZ may soon be recommended against for that age group.

This is particularly relevant for people in their 30s who are eligible to be vaccinated now (for various reasons eg they’re a carer or living with an immuno-compromised person). Do they take AZ now? Or wait to see if AZ will be recommended against and they can have an alternative?

France has always been ultra conservative when it comes to vaccination because they have such a strong and vocal antivax movement.

So their decision to give an alternative vaccine to under 55s who had their first AZ is most likely to be primarily a PR decision, as the stats (so far) don't seem to bear it out, at least for the 40-55 age group.

That said, I personally would be quite relieved if my 2nd dose was a Pfizer.

@Roonerspismed

I think you are naive at best if you think there isn’t a two way conversation with the government here

We are one of the few regulators not to restrict on a lower age and we just happen to have set our vaccine strategy on the AZ vaccine? And we just happened not to have noticed 74 cases of this clotting issue until a few weeks ago.

Does anyone actually believe that?!

I know there are many on here who think as you do but yes I rate the MHRA and JCVI highly and trust their decisions are based on data.

But it’s very difficult as some will be very sure as you are it’s not the case.

I'm 33 and I'll be gutted if it means it takes longer for me to get the vaccine if they recommend to not use AZ in under 40s 😩

I'd happily take any of them immediately.

@Roonerspismed

I think you are naive at best if you think there isn’t a two way conversation with the government here

We are one of the few regulators not to restrict on a lower age and we just happen to have set our vaccine strategy on the AZ vaccine? And we just happened not to have noticed 74 cases of this clotting issue until a few weeks ago.

Does anyone actually believe that?!

Believe what?

The government is not involved in the decision making which is disclosed and evidenced.

What two way conversation are you talking about other than one you have made up in your head.

Which national regulator are you talking about ? And why do you think their decision is better than the UKs. Take about of risk and availability of vaccine. Tell me what your success rate is.

metro.co.uk/2021/04/09/under-40s-could-be-asked-to-take-alternative-jab-to-oxford-vaccine-14381985/amp/

Another source for the same story. Basically what they’re saying is that when they reach the point where 30-40s are eligible for vaccination they’ll reconsider whether that age range should have AZ or not. This raises a huge question for any 30-something who is eligible for a jab now. I know a few 30-somethings who have AZ jabs booked in the next few weeks, who are cancelling and waiting for the official rollout to their age group, in the hope that gov policy will change by that time and they’ll be offered an alternative to AZ which isn’t currently being offered.

I would like to know the following:

For a healthy, mid-30s female (ie- healthy weight, no conditions etc) what are the chances of:

1. CATCHING Covid, plus going on to have a serious reaction to it (hospitalisation, post viral fatigue or death)

1. Developing a clot from the AZ.

NOT the stats for the whole cohort of my age, or (as the papers are suggesting) for everyone who has been vaccinated.... I mean specifically for my age and health profile.

And I’d like to know if the chances of number 1 are figured out based on all KNOWN cases of Covid, or based on the likely number who have had Covid?

Surely having a second Pfizer dose after a first AZ is much more risky than 2 AZ? Mixing doses has not been fully tested yet although trials are ongoing (I’m on the trial). The risk of blood clots maybe higher from mixing the 2 got all we know at the moment (hopefully not!).

@Wherediditgo I don't know exactly- I'm 33, slim, healthy, no underlying conditions. I very much believe catching coronavirus would be much much more risky for me than the risk of blood clots when having the AZ vaccine. I'm pretty sure that's correct?

I think the risks for me from Coronavirus are very small but the risks from the vaccine are far far smaller again. That makes me entirely comfortable in getting the AZ vaccine. With the added benefit of helping protect those around me. It's an easy choice for me.

Jesus wept.

If you're not willing to get AZ also pls stop driving your car, as your risk of being involved in a fatal car crash is 1/5000 MUCH higher than the the 4/1000000 blood clot risk.

When did people become so stupid?