Now 79 cases of AZ-related blood clots in the U.K. and 19 deaths *title edited by MNHQ at OP's request*

[Boringlynormal]

How have we gone - in the past 10 days - from:

5 cases - all men
To
30 cases, 7 deaths
To
79 cases and 19 deaths, 2/3 of them are women.

What the hell is going on?!

Yes I know it’s still low compared to overall number than have had the vaccine but that’s not reassuring when they don’t seem to have had a clue about the numbers and let us all continue getting the vaccine with no warning even when Europe was sounding huge alarm bells.

I’m 12 days post AZ, mid 30s and very upset.

I thought we were medium with a few areas were high? Really I just was watching casually so quite probably mistook that bit.

@WitchesBritchesPumpkinPants the reason I said under 50 was on the basis that everyone 50+ has already been vaccinated in phase one. Appreciate it might not be 100% but the plans are already in place for this age group.

Okay I AM in an area with higher rates so I translated Van Tam's message for my area thinking of my own odds..as you were.

It's worth realising though that case rates will likely go up again as mixing increases now and in the coming weeks. So where we are today in risk versus benefit won't be where we are in Autumn, say.

I am supposed to be having my vaccination next week. I am very tempted to delay it. I would be much happier if the UK had taken the same line as other EU countries and said no AZ vaccine for those under 65 or 60. I would be willing to be vaccinated if there was a guarantee I would get the Pfizer one. This is because most of the cases of the rare blood clots are in women under 60.

I link the official EMA news story www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-ema-finds-possible-link-very-rare-cases-unusual-blood-clots-low-blood

I’m a volunteer vaccinator. I’ve been advised that it’s business as normal for the vaccination session I’m due at tomorrow afternoon. It’s an AZ site.

@LookAChicken

Okay I AM in an area with higher rates so I translated Van Tam's message for my area thinking of my own odds..as you were.

It's worth realising though that case rates will likely go up again as mixing increases now and in the coming weeks. So where we are today in risk versus benefit won't be where we are in Autumn, say.

Exactly, but I think a lot of people missed that and I think JVT focussing in the lower risk really didn't help.

@HJ40. About under 50's, fair enough, I was thinking more the impact that this will have worldwide. I know this is only for the U.K, but what we say re our own vaccination will have far reaching consequences.

I honestly think they've been put in the headlights and are now risking causing vaccine consent issues & it will cost a lot of lives.

1/1m chances of dying from a blood clot is incredibly low. You have more chance of dying from a plane landing on your house

But people now refusing to get vaccinated will cause a lot of unnecessary deaths. Including from blood clots.

[quote TroubleUsedToBeMyBusiness]I am supposed to be having my vaccination next week. I am very tempted to delay it. I would be much happier if the UK had taken the same line as other EU countries and said no AZ vaccine for those under 65 or 60. I would be willing to be vaccinated if there was a guarantee I would get the Pfizer one. This is because most of the cases of the rare blood clots are in women under 60.

I link the official EMA news story www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-ema-finds-possible-link-very-rare-cases-unusual-blood-clots-low-blood[/quote]
NONE of the other vaccines have been used in the same quantity. By the time Pfizer has been used in this volume it could easily have the same rate of people getting blood clots AFTER their vaccination.

It's an important distinction. People getting blood clots FROM the vaccine is incorrect.

They get it AFTER the vaccine.

It is FAR FAR FAR more likely to be the persons reaction to creating antibodies than anything IN the vaccine.
It is an incredibly low risk & highly unlikely to be AZ causing it.

Don't forget large numbers are getting blood clots with Covid.

If you give out any medication in the volume of the Covid vaccination, there will be side effects but this one seems incredibly rare.

The sister of one of the people who likely died from a AZ related blood clot is encouraging everyone to still have the vaccine.

[quote TroubleUsedToBeMyBusiness]I am supposed to be having my vaccination next week. I am very tempted to delay it. I would be much happier if the UK had taken the same line as other EU countries and said no AZ vaccine for those under 65 or 60. I would be willing to be vaccinated if there was a guarantee I would get the Pfizer one. This is because most of the cases of the rare blood clots are in women under 60.

I link the official EMA news story www.ema.europa.eu/en/news/astrazenecas-covid-19-vaccine-ema-finds-possible-link-very-rare-cases-unusual-blood-clots-low-blood[/quote]
The reason more cases are in women than men under 60 is because far more women than men under 60 have been given the AZ vaccine. This is thought to be because more women than men are front line health care workers.

@WitchesBritchesPumpkinPants

I would be surprised if the number of Pfizer doses administered in Israel and the US wouldn’t surpass AZ in the UK/EU.

[quote TimeQuest01]@WitchesBritchesPumpkinPants

I would be surprised if the number of Pfizer doses administered in Israel and the US wouldn’t surpass AZ in the UK/EU.[/quote]
But that's entirely irrelevant if we can't analyse the data & if they're not analysing it in the same way we are.

@Parker231

If you give out any medication in the volume of the Covid vaccination, there will be side effects but this one seems incredibly rare.

The sister of one of the people who likely died from a AZ related blood clot is encouraging everyone to still have the vaccine.

Yes. 1 'event' per 250,000 vaccinations . 1 death per million vaccinations

FAR less than the 1:10,000 they deem 'high risk' in a medicine/vaccination usually.

Yes & maybe that's because she can be rational about it as she's a pharmacist.

I hope people take notice of what she's saying as she's been good enough to do it.

news.sky.com/story/covid-19-blood-clot-victims-sister-very-angry-but-says-everyone-should-have-oxford-astrazeneca-jab-12269289

Wow, I've just read that article. Dr Astles is a remarkable woman.

It cannot be easy to speak out and do what you think is right in the wake of such a personal tragedy.

@Parker231 do you know anything about what people in 30s will be offered now? is it only AZ ? Im early 30s and had my 1st but my sister is late 30s and doesnt want it and wondered if they will be offered moderna or the other new one if they refuse AZ or if those are being kept for under 30s?

I have been following this since Norway first reported it and if I were a member of Sage/MHRA I think I would resign right now.
They have carried on, and are carrying on, with the rollout of the AZ vaccine, knowing that, for every million people vaccinated, up to 25 could die. Their (somewhat misleading) figures for CVST/VIPIT deaths in the UK following AZ are "1 in a million". But that is based on everyone vaccinated so far in the UK with AZ, which is still, predominantly, the OLDER cohort . In Norway, who vaccinated mainly younger people with AZ, the case rates were 1 in 20 000 with a 50% fatality rate - that's a death rate of 1 in 40 000. Why? The Norwegians were mainly giving the vaccine to young, female healthcare workers. Add to this the fact that the UK Yellow Card system underreports, so our case rate is likely even higher than reported, and they are taking a massive gamble with the lives of healthy, relatively young people. Who aren't at high risk of Covid. The argument that by taking the vaccine you WILL be saving others doesn't stack up because there are too many variables involved in this pandemic. Variants are emerging all the time and some of them will get round this series of vaccines. We're not talking about a side effect that causes, say, rheumatoid arthritis (although that would be bad enough). We're talking about something that often kills. When other vaccines are (or should be) available. Young, healthy people are being asked to pay with their lives because this government placed too much reliance on one vaccine.

I do wonder whether all these women filled with dread at this risk were filled with dread when they became pregnant. You have a 1:10,000 risk of dying in childbirth in this country. I can see the risk reward ratio is different with pregnancy, as you really want a baby and are prepared to gamble for this, but no one pregnant I know talks about how scared they are that they might die, though rationally it's a really risky thing to do.

Feel free to knock down my maths but please don't trot out the party line on this. According to the Daily Mail, 6 people aged 30-39 have died of CVST/VIPIT. If the "1 in a million" figure is correct then 6 million 30-39 year olds must have had AZ first dose. Have 6 million 30-39 year olds actually been vaccinated with AZ? I can't find the exact figures but would be glad to hear from someone who knows them. And I would be glad to be proven wrong.

@Fieldofmemes

I have been following this since Norway first reported it and if I were a member of Sage/MHRA I think I would resign right now. They have carried on, and are carrying on, with the rollout of the AZ vaccine, knowing that, for every million people vaccinated, up to 25 could die. Their (somewhat misleading) figures for CVST/VIPIT deaths in the UK following AZ are "1 in a million". But that is based on everyone vaccinated so far in the UK with AZ, which is still, predominantly, the OLDER cohort . In Norway, who vaccinated mainly younger people with AZ, the case rates were 1 in 20 000 with a 50% fatality rate - that's a death rate of 1 in 40 000. Why? The Norwegians were mainly giving the vaccine to young, female healthcare workers. Add to this the fact that the UK Yellow Card system underreports, so our case rate is likely even higher than reported, and they are taking a massive gamble with the lives of healthy, relatively young people. Who aren't at high risk of Covid. The argument that by taking the vaccine you WILL be saving others doesn't stack up because there are too many variables involved in this pandemic. Variants are emerging all the time and some of them will get round this series of vaccines. We're not talking about a side effect that causes, say, rheumatoid arthritis (although that would be bad enough). We're talking about something that often kills. When other vaccines are (or should be) available. Young, healthy people are being asked to pay with their lives because this government placed too much reliance on one vaccine.

Do have a link to those stats please? I was wondering about this - are they figuring the chances out based on everyone vaccinated or only those under 30? I’m mid 30s and don’t want to have the AZ...

@Ontopofthesunset you are correct I'm sure, but I would imagine that in that case the benefits are SO great that we take on all the risks. Here I am not sure the benefits are as great as we are being led to believe - when other vaccines are (or should be) available.

@Wherediditgo read this FT article, about halfway down (PS it should be an article entitled "Blood clots and the AstraZeneca covid vaccine: is there a link?" - if it ISN'T, tell me and I'll copy it another way. FT is subscription so they may block some content):

www.ft.com/content/d5cd63c6-af01-4d29-a5e5-b69ade4f3803

I agree that the benefits are so great that people willingly get pregnant and give birth, but my point is more that no one even discusses the risks or looks up how likely they are to die. Sure, people are scared of pain in labour and tears/damage etc, but nobody thinks of it as a risky endeavour.

@Ontopofthesunset nobody? I did haha but I think that says something about me. You're right that people in general don't give it much thought.

Pregnancy is not an acceptable comparator as (a) pregnancy is an active choice that is made by (usually) two parents for their personal benefit. For younger cohorts, SAGE accepts that vaccination is not for their personal benefit but for a possible (not even guaranteed) community benefit. If you look at the slides produced for the press conference, they even show that the vaccine causes more risk of death than Covid for the 20 - 29 cohort and that is even with deaths from covid from those with Comorbidities lumped in. (b) when informed consent is obtained in this country, legally, the HCP has to set out the pros/cons/risks and benefits to the patient of having the intervention versus not having it and set out the material risks that are relevant and specific to that patient based on their own facts and circumstances - ie it is a bespoke process. The discussion is based around having the intervention or not having the intervention. Not between the intervention and getting pregnant or crossing the road etc.

The majority of fitness to practise hearing in the UK for dentists and doctors tend to have at least one allegation regarding informed consent - so it is (quite rightly) taken very seriously by regulators. Advising a patient to have an intervention that could place them at risk for no personal benefit (even if there was a societal benefit) currently would probably run a serious risk of fitness to practise proceedings where consent would be an issue and dishonesty/financial motivation (if it was a private treatment) as additional allegations. Eg - you go to the dentist and have three teeth with issues. You are an exempt nhs patient (ie you pay no charges). The dentist decides it would be better and cheaper for society as a whole if extracted all of your teeth now on the basis they may need extracted in the future. There is no attempt to restore your three problematic teeth or to give you advice on oral health to prevent further issues. Instead the on,y option given to you is a full mount clearance and dentures as that is cheaper for the NHS and is therefore in the general public’s benefit although clearly not in yours. Is that the route we are going down now? Even worse, you have unexpected bleeding that can’t be controlled post-extraction (a very rare but possible side effect) and you die. That’s fine though as it still creates a general population benefit as you don’t even need your dentures or any more treatment and therefore reduced cost. Again, that’s fine is it? The risk of you dying was not a risk you even needed to be exposed to as you didn’t even need those extractions.

I don’t follow your logic. The risk of death or serious illness from Covid in this age group is much higher than the risk of a blood clot from the vaccine. I’m in my 40s as well, I’ve had my first dose and can’t wait for my second

It depends a bit though doesnt it. If you are an obese smoker who does naff all exercise then they are more likely to suffer with covid. If you are fit as a butchers dog then less so.

Yes some exercise junkies have had covid really bad, but most of the videos I saw in the news at the peak seemed to show majority fat and or old people in intensive care.