Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Working links! Woohoo! Well done.

May as well out them here too!

Todays figures: 2379 / 20

Thanks for the new thread. And great figures today, all falling nicely, even though the week on week change is comparing one non-school day to another in most areas at least and testing numbers look quite steady.

Re the blood clot risk, there was a BBC article recently that compared them. It was 1 in 2.5m chance of dying from a blood clot following vaccination (assuming 100% of the blood clots reported were caused by the vaccine) If you have a look at the Alama website linked to in the OP you can work out your personal risk from Covid. Mine (healthy woman in my 40s) comes out at 0.06% chance of death if I catch Covid, which is 1,500 out of 2.5m. the vaccine seems the better bet to me! Working it out for the lowest risk person - a healthy 20 year old, there 0.007% chance of death from Covid, ie 175 deaths per 2.5m. Your chance of catching Covid is obviously not 100%, and the vaccine doesn't give 100% protection, but these risks are just not if the same magnitude - The risks from both Covid and blood clots are very low if you're young, but the blood clot risk is still very much lower And that's before you've even considered the very much higher risk of catching Covid and not dying but being very ill from it. So I'll be recommending the vaccine to DD as soon as she's offered it Not having the vaccine because of fear of blood clots seems a bit like refusing to get in a taxi to the GP for a heath check because of the risk of dying in a road accident on your way.

Approx 3200 in hospital in U.K. with covid.

Still on course for sub 2500 by 12th I think. Should see some substantial falls in the coming days I think.

Easily sub 500 on ventilation now...

@Firefliess I will take the vacinne (mid 40s). But the '1 in 2.5m' blood clot risk assumes the occurrence is spread evening across ages and sex. If (as is implied by some reporting but not confirmed) it turned out to occur only in (say) 20-50 yr old women, that risk would increase substantially for them.

evening = evenly

.

.

[quote AnneofScreamFables]@Firefliess I will take the vacinne (mid 40s). But the '1 in 2.5m' blood clot risk assumes the occurrence is spread evening across ages and sex. If (as is implied by some reporting but not confirmed) it turned out to occur only in (say) 20-50 yr old women, that risk would increase substantially for them.[/quote]
I think the reports of it being mainly young women came from Germany at a time when they'd decided not to use the AZ vaccine in over 65s. So it was being used on under 65 year old health care workers, who are mainly women.

But even if the people affected in the UK (where we've used it on more of a mixture of people) were only women and all under 55, that's still about 30% of the adult population, so your blood clot risk if you are a woman under 55 rises to about 3 in 2.5 million - it's still an awful lot lower than the Covid risk.

As far as I'm aware the risk for this type of clot (without the vaccine) is greater in women under 55 than any other group anyway.

I can't understand if there's 10 cases in one hospital why isn't that frequency being replicated across every other country using Astrazeneca. Because you can bet your bottom dollar if it was that high in Europe we'd know about it.

Maybe the 10 blood clot cases in one hospital were mostly nothing to do with the vaccine? Unless it's such a rare and unusual occurence that all cases in the country are taken to the one hospital? That seems unlikely to me so inclined to disbelieve anecdotal reports of 10 in the one hospital unless I read it from a reputable source

Exactly

Re the blood clots, this is an oldish paper but has some helpful background particularly in regard to underlying factors and aetiology.

Also notes the rise in incidence with improved diagnosis.

pmj.bmj.com/content/76/891/12

Can I ask what people's thoughts are on the potential 'third wave' being discussed?

I realise this is not data per se but the thread about it is full of people who haven't really got very much any understanding of what's going on.

Has anyone seen any papers which explain the assumptions underlying the modelling for this third wave prediction from Sage?

I'm struggling to understand the more dire predictions given the vaccine take up so far and trying to get my head around it.

@Firefliess

Maybe the 10 blood clot cases in one hospital were mostly nothing to do with the vaccine? Unless it's such a rare and unusual occurence that all cases in the country are taken to the one hospital? That seems unlikely to me so inclined to disbelieve anecdotal reports of 10 in the one hospital unless I read it from a reputable source

Appreciate that and hence I was reluctant to post it. Perhaps they are admitting from a wide area due to need for specialist treatment. Perhaps they have had a range of vaccines and not just AZ. It was in the context of a conversation so I haven’t probed for more details.

@wheresmymojo

Can I ask what people's thoughts are on the potential 'third wave' being discussed?

I realise this is not data per se but the thread about it is full of people who haven't really got very much any understanding of what's going on.

Has anyone seen any papers which explain the assumptions underlying the modelling for this third wave prediction from Sage?

I'm struggling to understand the more dire predictions given the vaccine take up so far and trying to get my head around it.

Try following James Ward on Twitter. He's a mathematician and amateur modeller, who's made his own model and keeps it updated. He's very good at engaging with others on twitter to try out different things and I've also found all his assumptions to look very sensible. They don't look overly pessimistic or optimistic to me, and - unlike the academics that Sage rely on - he is able to update and keep his model live when new information comes to light. His own model does not predict the third wave that the sage one does and I'm looking forward to seeing his analysis on why this is.

Chinese I wonder if is 10 patients with blood clots like deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism or 10 cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis?

@wheresmymojo

Can I ask what people's thoughts are on the potential 'third wave' being discussed?

I realise this is not data per se but the thread about it is full of people who haven't really got very much any understanding of what's going on.

Has anyone seen any papers which explain the assumptions underlying the modelling for this third wave prediction from Sage?

I'm struggling to understand the more dire predictions given the vaccine take up so far and trying to get my head around it.

This is the paper assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/975909/S1182_SPI-M-O_Summary_of_modelling_of_easing_roadmap_step_2_restrictions.pdf?fbclid=IwAR0zsHqtbTC2uUYUTJ13PI6SJTDqMiaPqXARj4sVMKBebpQZHqCu5AZ2_T4

The headlines on the huge third wave are based on the LSHTM model which assumes AZ only provides 31% effectiveness against transmission and an R of 4.11 after step 4.
The other models by Imperial and Warwick use different assumptions and show much lower waves

@PurpleWh1teGreen

Chinese I wonder if is 10 patients with blood clots like deep vein thrombosis or pulmonary embolism or 10 cases of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis?

Possibly. If I find out more I will report back. In the meantime I will give myself a slap on the wrist as my original post wasn’t exactly data driven

Thanks all.

Media doing its usual ridiculous job at scientific reporting then

@Eccle80

R of 4.11? They having a laugh?

Do these people ever think, maybe that sounds a bit bonkers?

Skimmed the the article? Did I read it right? They think there’s a scenario where we have the same hospital peak in England as January 2021?? Literally ridiculous.

I’ll eat my hat if we go above 5000 again in England before November, no let’s make it interesting, December.

@Doomsdayiscoming it doesn’t strike me as a very convincing scenario! And yes, the LSHTM model gives another peak at January levels, based on the assumption of low effectiveness against transmission of AZ. The other two models seem more likely, but as ever it shows how dependent on the input assumptions models are

I think the 4.1 R figure is what they estimate to be the natural R if the (Kent) strain if it was being introduced to a new population with no natural immunity. Which is why they call it Ro normally. They're not saying that actual R will be 4.1 in the UK with vaccination and a bit of immunity from past infection.

It does say without immunity, the Warwick and Imperial models use an R of around 3 in their central scenarios though. Presumably in the LSHTM the R has more impact though because it assumes two thirds of those vaccinated with AZ still transmit?

Easter holidays are over now and there's lots of new information about reduced transmission, high take-up (even if they just use take-up so far plus ONS seroprevalence), high efficacy. I think it's high time for these teams to do new models.