Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Sorry I can't find a copy of the slides to link to but the risk from vaccine is serious harm from vaccine is 0.2 per 100,000 for over 70s but rises to 1.1 per 100,000 for the under 30s. Admissions to ICU go from 14.1 per 100,000 for over 70s down to 0.8 per 100,000 for under 30s. So the vaccine is more of a risk to under 30s and the benefits are less. No brainer really.

My figures were for low exposure.

i'm obviously still on half a brain, my figures were 60 to 69 not over 70s.

Firefliess the difference is that most 18 to 29 year olds need to use the roads, they don't have to have AZ they could have another vaccine as indeed they will now unless they are in the middle of the doses.

[quote MRex]@ancientgran - I also thought the risk looked very slightly higher for younger ages, but there wasn't a huge difference. I'll go and find the charts...[/quote]
Thanks for the figures. My DD's risk is 5.5 times my risk.

Blood clot risks are the same for any exposure theoretically (if they can be stated with any certainty at such low incidence levels), it's just the 4 month ICU rate increases with exposure.

Thanks for the blood clot risks @Mrex. Those are risks of having a blood clot, rather than dying aren't they? (Though if 19 of 79 died, they're clearly a very serious occurence).

On another topic, for those interested in the third wave modelling, the Twitter modeller I was recommending has analysed the recent government-commissioned models and why they predict a third wave when his own model doesn't. twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1379701658813337602?s=19
Interestingly, the first thing he does is to rescale the y axis to point out that it's not actually that big a wave that they are predicting. I find his analysis and explanations of the assumptions that sit beneath each model to be very informative. Worth a read.

If you have to drive to get your jab you're probably more likely to die in the way home in a car crash than from blood clots! People are very odd in how they assess risks

Yes, but the way the risks are described don't help in anyway, specifically saying that does not help anyone assess risk, given the extremely low risk from clots, the extremely low risk from covid, it's clear I should just stay at home to protect from the car risk, that is genuinely the highest risk to me (and car pollution an even higher risk than all of them of course.)

I'm a bit ignorant about blood clots - can they be monitored/checked for following the jab now we know it's something to look for (in an extremely tiny number of people)?

I'm totally confused. I think my blood sugar is low so I should go and eat something, might help my brain. My bank phone call during the briefing was about £5,000 that seemed to have disappeared on the internet while transferring it from a savings account to current account. I saw my new bathroom disappearing with it. Fortunately it has materialised back in the original account but has left me feeling mentally challenged. Trying to listen to the briefing while worrying about my money/bathroom was clearly too much for me.

Yes, so 1 in 4 of those died, let's assume even distribution:
20-29: 2.75 per 1,000,000
30-39: 2 per 1,000,000
40-49: 1.25 per 1,000,000
50-59: 1 per 1,000,000
60-69: 0.5 per 1,000,000.

How's this for context. If everyone had the same death risk as the 20-29yo listed here (they don't), and we vaccinated every man, woman and child in the UK, then 184 would die. That's fewer people than died of covid only on 1st March 2021 in the UK.

I understand that but if your child might be one of the 184 you can't help worrying.

@Mrex. Yes that's roughly where I was with my maths too - even in the younger age groups the risks from catching Covid look higher than the risks from the vaccine. I guess it does depend on prevalence though - if case rates continue to fall then the risks of catching Covid in the first place get quite low. And alternatives - if there really are other vaccines available for the under 30s (or they're will be by the time we get to them in about June) then they can avoid both (very small) risks. It's not an either or. For middle aged people the protection offered by getting any vaccine now rather than later is probably worth the slight risk of harm from the vaccine.

@ancientgran

I understand that but if your child might be one of the 184 you can't help worrying.

Do you worry about them being one of the 1,752 people dying in the roads each year? There's 1000 different ways to die if you really want to worry about it! Including 180,000 odd people died from Covid in the last year (about 100 of them under 30). And over a million (yes, a million!) suffering from long Covid in the latest ONS survey, all ages.

Hope your money and bathroom worries are sorting themselves out btw

case rates continue to fall then the risks of catching Covid in the first place get quite low

And remember if you've already had covid, which huge numbers have, then your risk of having it again are even lower, and your risk of being seriously ill even lower still. That's also been ignored in the analysis here.

There are also loads of mid 30 and 40 year old people with the same individual covid risk as lots of under 30's, if you know your personal risk is similar to someone who's not offered a particular treatment because it's unsafe for them, why would you go against that simply because you happen to be healthier than the average person of your age?

I agree. My DC in their twenties have had their first dose of AZ we are also fairly sure DS had the disease last April. The risk/benefit now looks quite different with regard to second doses.

@sirfred. Being a healthy 30 something will put your risks from Covid similar to a less healthy person in their late 20s. But I don't think your risks from blood clots increase because you're healthy.

Good point about those who've definitely had Covid though. The evidence on immunity from past infection does seem to be growing, so there's a strong case for not vaccinating those who've had it within the last six months, at least not until everyone else has been done. Some countries are only giving them one dose, which seems sensible to me.

@Firelies I do worry about deaths on the road, I worry when they fly, I worry about them getting randomly murdered and of course covid. I don't think working with the police and marrying a police officer was good for a natural born worrier. My husband will confirm that I have a list of worries waiting for when one is resolved and there is room for another. I actually think I do well, seeing DD going off to work in one of Mother Theresa's homes in Calcutta, various trips here there and everywhere for all of them, I'm not on medication yet but sometimes it feels tempting.

I think the money is found, I love the convenience of internet banking but money disappearing is not good. I was supposed to have the bathroom done a year ago so having waited all this time, at covid's convenience, it would be a bit sad if I couldn't get it done now.

@ancientgran I'm the opposite - I'm married to a born worrier. It's my job in life to try to distract him from his worries (Though DH is an accountant, not exactly a job to bring you into much contact with all the real risks in life!)

@Firefliess My husband is a mix he worries about the car accidents - attended too many fatals in fact he's worse about that sort of thing than I am, other stuff he doesn't worry at all. I'm quite proud that my kids really don't know how much things like going off to Calcutta worry me because I'd hate to stop them doing things.

Generally it stays under control as I'm busy but at the moment there is just so much time to fill with worry.

I think it must be hard to cope with living with a worrier.

I'm still, unhappy with the amount of information we are being given, as are a lot of people on Alex Freeman's twitter (she created the graphics for today's briefing).

mobile.twitter.com/alex_freeman/status/1379808289278545922

It is not clear from the slides that serious harm due to the vaccine is just from clots or from other side effects too, or whether gender in different age groups makes a difference.

The fact that the Winton Centre is being used means that the data is being manipulated to communicate the information in a certain way. I get that it is necessary to keep confidence in the vaccine rollout, but they need to be transparent about risk.

@Firefliess

Thanks for the blood clot risks *@Mrex*. Those are risks of having a blood clot, rather than dying aren't they? (Though if 19 of 79 died, they're clearly a very serious occurence).

On another topic, for those interested in the third wave modelling, the Twitter modeller I was recommending has analysed the recent government-commissioned models and why they predict a third wave when his own model doesn't. twitter.com/JamesWard73/status/1379701658813337602?s=19
Interestingly, the first thing he does is to rescale the y axis to point out that it's not actually that big a wave that they are predicting. I find his analysis and explanations of the assumptions that sit beneath each model to be very informative. Worth a read.

Thanks, very interesting

Just looked at that twitter graphic. It seemed persuasive until I read the line about it being based upon a coronavirus incidence rate of 2: 10,000, the approximate UK rate in March. Coronavirus incidence wouldn't have to increase much to change that scenario completely.

It seemed persuasive until I read the line about it being based upon a coronavirus incidence rate

The all risks on the covid side vs specific blood clot risk on the other is not exactly balanced, why would it not be all risk vs all risk?

@sirfredfredgeorge

It seemed persuasive until I read the line about it being based upon a coronavirus incidence rate

The all risks on the covid side vs specific blood clot risk on the other is not exactly balanced, why would it not be all risk vs all risk?

Are there any other known serious risks from the vaccine? I'm not aware of any.