Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

They have recently updated their models though @Mrex. See www.gov.uk/government/publications/spi-m-o-summary-of-further-modelling-of-easing-restrictions-roadmap-step-2-31-march-2021

They're not as pessimistic as previously (though have rescaled their graphs so it looks just as bad!) But do still predict a third wave. I think whether one happens or not hinges on whether the level of protection across society is enough to bring the R rate just below 1 or not, given those we don't vaccinate and some assumed transmission between people who've had the vaccine. None of the models look at including children in the vaccination schedule, though as they've just paused the AZ trial in children due to blood clot fears I guess that won't be coming any time soon.

With regard to the third wave discussion, I was struck by the shape of the UK graph compared with some of the other European nations via Worldometers.

Looking at shape rather than numbers, it looks like the second wave had a gentle upward slope here and in Europe from staggered start dates. As we know, The UK wave then peaked exponentially in late Dec & early Jan with the Kent variant, whilst much of Europe appears to have declined again. Shapewise a Mountain vs a series of hills.

The third wave in Europe currently seems to be caused by the Kent variant, so arguably we combined waves 2 and 3 in the UK as one giant tsunami.

It would appear that the Kent strain is declining here though we need to be vigilant for emerging strains, especially those like the Brazil variant, that may be less resistant to the current vaccines.

I suppose what I am trying to say is that the potential threat is emerging strains, regardless of whether you call it a third wave.

The models are very pessimistic, this is behind a pay wall but is a good summary:

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/04/06/government-models-warning-third-wave-based-flawed-figures-telegraph/

@PurpleWh1teGreen

I suppose what I am trying to say is that the potential threat is emerging strains, regardless of whether you call it a third wave.

I'd agree with you. But that's not what the Sage modelling is looking at. They specifically say they're not looking at new vaccine-resistant variants. I guess because the evidence on them is so sketchy still. Their modelling off a third wave is based on back to normal behaviour and about 35% of people still catching and transmitting because they're children, unvaccinated or the vaccines haven't worked for them. They think they'll be enough of these unprotected people for the R to go above 1. The only reason the third wave ends (in their models) is because a very significant number of the unprotected people have caught Covid, so herd immunity eventually kicks in.

Marking my place. Thanks for the new thread.

Also place marking - thank you for the new thread!

That makes sense Fireflies and I much prefer your précis!

They think they'll be enough of these unprotected people for the R to go above 1

But yes, and I agree with them, but they also get huge numbers of deaths from this, and no change in people behaviour which reduces it and that's what I don't understand, and what they've said in every single model, none of which have come close to being accurate.

The number of deaths in the "2nd wave" here was closer than previous, but of course that was with their models without the kent variant which is 40% more transmissible, put that into their previous models and...

We need papers explaining how they got it wrong, and how the models have been changed such that on the previous data they were considerably closer, so far the models have been so far off. Has anyone seen a single paper / pre-print from any of them? It's hard to have faith in them without such introspection.

I would like to see the updated data on the AZ clotting issue. The cases that have been reported so far only go to 24th March, which is 2 weeks ago. I think we need an update on this to reassure people.

@lonelyplanet

I would like to see the updated data on the AZ clotting issue. The cases that have been reported so far only go to 24th March, which is 2 weeks ago. I think we need an update on this to reassure people.

EMA will report at 3pm BST today (and continue to be ignored by in-country regulators who do their own thing?). I presume MHRA will have to give a statement by tomorrow latest as follow-up to whatever EMA say. Regardless the MHRA report should be updated tomorrow. If you look at the history, the data always runs 10 days behind and last update was 7th April. Presumably to allow analysis, report production etc: www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-56659036

Under-30s in UK to be offered alternative to AstraZeneca jab
People under-30 are to be offered an alternative Covid jab to the AstraZeneca vaccine due to mounting evidence linking it to rare blood clots, the UK's vaccine advisory body says.

A review by the drugs regulator MHRA found by the end of March 79 people in the UK suffered rare blood clots after vaccination - 19 of whom died.

The regulator said this was not proof the jab had caused the clots - but it said the link was getting firmer.

What vaccine do people think they'll be offering the under 30s? Moderna seems to be coming through this month so presumably will go to the 40 somethings rather than be held back for younger age groups. And I thought most of the Pfizer ones to come were earmarked for second doses. Seems to me that the risks to the individual may be more finely balanced if young and if Covid rates are very low, but the risks to society an awful lot higher if young people hold back on getting vaccinated.

I wonder what happens to under 30s who had one jab already. Two of my children have had AZ and one has had Pfizer, two of their partners have also had vaccine one AZ one Pfizer. I wasn't clear from the briefing about what would happen if you'd already one dose and were under 30, they were clear people should have 2nd dose and under 30s not to have AZ but some people, one of mine, don't fit neatly into that. I had a bank call so I might have missed it. If anyone heard anything I missed I'd be grateful.

Not particularly worried about me as at my age it is clearly worth getting it, even my late 40s kids I'm not worried but the under 30 is a concern.

2763/45 today.

@ancientgran

I wonder what happens to under 30s who had one jab already. Two of my children have had AZ and one has had Pfizer, two of their partners have also had vaccine one AZ one Pfizer. I wasn't clear from the briefing about what would happen if you'd already one dose and were under 30, they were clear people should have 2nd dose and under 30s not to have AZ but some people, one of mine, don't fit neatly into that. I had a bank call so I might have missed it. If anyone heard anything I missed I'd be grateful.

Not particularly worried about me as at my age it is clearly worth getting it, even my late 40s kids I'm not worried but the under 30 is a concern.

@ancientgran they are recommending them to go ahead and have the second AZ - provided no clotting issues following the first. My sister is in the same boat. It is a little worrying because she is under 30 but will probably go with the recommendation because don't want to be stuck with only one jab.

I don't think under 30s need to be worried - they're not at any higher risk of blood clots, just lower risk from Covid.

"EMA will report at 3pm BST today (and continue to be ignored by in-country regulators who do their own thing?). I presume MHRA will have to give a statement by tomorrow latest as follow-up to whatever EMA say. Regardless the MHRA report should be updated tomorrow. If you look at the history, the data always runs 10 days behind and last update was 7th April. Presumably to allow analysis, report production etc: www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions."

Thanks for the link MRex. It is still not updated, but maybe will be later tiday. Do you know if details of age and sex of the cases are released?

The risk of cerebral venous sinus thrombosis is apparently greatly increased in the third trimester of pregnancy and in the postpartum period (I wondered if “women under 55” was shorthand for “women of childbearing age”).

@Firefliess

I don't think under 30s need to be worried - they're not at any higher risk of blood clots, just lower risk from Covid.

I thought on the slide it showed less risk of covid but more risk of clots? I was on the phone so only listening with one ear and half a brain.

Thanks LeggingWoah, not sure what she will decide but either way I will do the motherly thing and worry.

They haven't been released previously. It would be useful. In the Q&A Prof Sir Munir Pirmohamed said (I paraphrase) that the 51 women / 28 men was likely a factor of who was vaccinated due to more healthcare workers being female; and 3 of the 19 deaths were under 30. If we take numbers vaccinated by age band at the top level where we know the numbers vaccinated then we can probably retrofit the risks into the Van Tam charts to work out how many per band.

I was most surprised that Prof Shen suggested in the Q&A they haven't definitively ruled out if it's just this vaccine, any vaccine or covid causing these effects (I can't quote as watched it on TV). I thought blood tests showed a difference in antibodies to be able to tell if someone's had previous infection (as per ONS), but to say that he is surely indicating that at least some of these 79 may have had covid in the past. If a vaccine panic over 4/million effects with 1/million deaths needs to be started, can they really not first eliminate those who've had the disease itself that also causes this?

@ancientgran - I also thought the risk looked very slightly higher for younger ages, but there wasn't a huge difference. I'll go and find the charts...

I don't think there was a clear age group at risk from clots. They said the deaths had been between 18 and 79, and numbers likely too small to say anything about different risks for different ages. It's still 19 deaths from about 19m doses though, so one in a million. You're chances of dying in a road accident in the fortnight following you jab are about 10 times higher (1,752 people a year die in road accidents in the UK, ie 67 per fortnight, which is 10 in a million). If you have to drive to get your jab you're probably more likely to die in the way home in a car crash than from blood clots! People are very odd in how they assess risks.

AHH, I'm wrong! The risk from dying in a road accident in the fortnight following your jab is 1 in a million, not 10 in a million. Must get simple maths right! So about the same as dying from a blood clot following vaccination. Over a whole year though you're much more likely to die in a road accident (or from Covid) than you are from a blood clot though.

Here: images.app.goo.gl/qEc5tnRRdaDoSVLq6.

Coverted up because I find it easier in millions, blood clot risks:
20-29: 11 per 1,000,000
30-39: 8 per 1,000,000
40-49: 5 per 1,000,000
50-59: 4 per 1,000,000
60-69: 2 per 1,000,000.