Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

True. And maybe it’s all a bit irrelevant given the high proportion we know aren’t seeking a test even when they do have an official symptom?

@lonelyplanet

I would like to see the updated data on the AZ clotting issue. The cases that have been reported so far only go to 24th March, which is 2 weeks ago. I think we need an update on this to reassure people.

Updated report is out: www.gov.uk/government/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-vaccine-adverse-reactions/coronavirus-vaccine-summary-of-yellow-card-reporting

"Up to and including 31 March 2021, the MHRA had received 79 UK reports of blood clotting cases alongside low levels of platelets following the use of the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca:

44 of the 79 cases were of CVST with thrombocytopenia
35 of the 79 cases were of thrombosis in other major veins with thrombocytopenia
79 cases occurred in 51 women and 28 men, aged from 18 to 79 years.
It should be noted that more women have been vaccinated with COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca than men.
Sadly, 19 people have died out of the 79 cases – 13 females and 6 males. 11 out of the 19 people who died were under the age of 50, 3 of whom were under 30. 14 of these 19 cases were of CVST with thrombocytopenia and 5 were of thrombosis with thrombocytopenia.
All 79 cases occurred after a first dose of the vaccine.

...
The MHRA recently confirmed that the evidence to date does not suggest that the COVID-19 Vaccine AstraZeneca causes venous thromboembolism without a low platelet count."

Also there is a statement from yesterday: www.gov.uk/government/news/mhra-issues-new-advice-concluding-a-possible-link-between-covid-19-vaccine-astrazeneca-and-extremely-rare-unlikely-to-occur-blood-clots.
This says 20.2m AZ vaccines given.
Also a note now adds "Up to and including 31 March we have received 2 reports of blood clots (thromboembolism) reported with thrombocytopenia for the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine."

@sirfredfredgeorge

fatigue and headache....

But remember it's not just the symptoms that you do have, it's the usefulness of those symptoms as a predictor to make it worth testing. So if the majority of fatigue and headaches are not covid, then it's a poor predictor. Which consumes test resources and potentially has people isolating needlessly.

Might be a better way to target use of LFTs though. Have to admit using I've myself yesterday when I had a headache and felt a bit off colour (negative) But seems like they'll pick up more that way than twice weekly testing if you have no symptoms.

53/3030 today

I remember a few months (early Feb when there were 25000 in hospital) ago I was told on here that I was crazy for suggesting that by April 12th there would be 2500 in hospital with Covid.

Well, we’re at 3000 with 5 days to go. Probably won’t happen, probably somewhere between 2600-2700.

Absolutely crazy not to move some stuff forward at this point. Make hay when the sun bloody shines.

Very few blue spots on the map now. Most is light green. Such a pleasure to look at!

But seems like they'll pick up more that way than twice weekly testing if you have no symptoms

Absolutely!

@Lalalablahblahblah

Does anyone have an idea as to whether the under 30s now needing to receive Pfizer or Moderna will mean that the 30-49s will have to wait longer now? I guess if the Moderna delivery is going to be reserved it will, won't it?

Who cares? As long as the under 50s get it by the early Autumn, it’s all the same.

We’d be better off shipping our AZ to Europe, or probably SA.

SA being South America* (for use in over 50s there)

@Lalalablahblahblah

Does anyone have an idea as to whether the under 30s now needing to receive Pfizer or Moderna will mean that the 30-49s will have to wait longer now? I guess if the Moderna delivery is going to be reserved it will, won't it?

I don't think so. They've not said anything about changing the priority order. I think the Moderna vaccines that arrived this week are quite a small shipment with most of them coming later, so it's possible they're expecting most of the new doses over the next few weeks to be AZ, with Pfizer resuming first doses once they've finished the large volume of second doses due in April, alongside most of the Moderna shipments arriving in time for the younger age groups.

There's about 10m people aged 18-30, but about 20% have already had a vaccine one way or another, so that's 8m, and take-up is likely to be lowest in this age group, so I'm inclined to believe the government when they say they're confident they'll be enough non-AZ vaccines left to do them. I think they'd face quite a protest from 40 something frontline workers if they made them wait behind 19 year olds who are at very low risk from anything.

@Lalalablahblahblah

Well I care. I'm in that group and I don't fancy having to do an LFT every time I want to go anywhere. Not do I relish the potential for long covid

I care too! Also in that group (at the upper end of it) and would like to be able to return to some kind of normality sooner rather than later.

@Lalalablahblahblah

Does anyone have an idea as to whether the under 30s now needing to receive Pfizer or Moderna will mean that the 30-49s will have to wait longer now? I guess if the Moderna delivery is going to be reserved it will, won't it?

I’ve seen in the news today that below 30s have had their appointments cancelled ans they will need to wait now longer. I’d expect that taking into account a 45yo person is more at risk than a 21yo one they’d prioritise the 45 one

Weekly update on variants:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-cases-data

Not huge changes in terms of percentages.

Local news just told us Dorset 70% had first dose of vaccine, Cornwall 66% and Devon 65%. That seems pretty good to me, not sure I'm right but sure someone will let me know.

and would like to be able to return to some kind of normality sooner rather than later

The problem is tieing normality to vaccination of these groups, SAGE does not believe the vaccines are good enough to make much difference at all to transmission, if we "trust the scientists" on this, then there's nothing that vaccinating these groups that makes a material difference to the options for normality. You either accept the risk of transmission when it doesn't lead to hospitalisations, or you remain with severe restrictions.

@Lalalablahblahblah

Wow. Is that % of adults or of population? Either way it's bloody amazing

Yes that's what he said. I thought it sounded good. I suppose we are all counties with alot of oldies so we will probably slow down but with those sort of numbers we should really feel a benefit. Having said that they seem to be doing emergency planning as they are expecting a huge influx of visitors on Monday. I hope it gets a bit warmer, I always feel so sorry for families who are camping when it is cold and/or wet. They are worried how the coastal path is going to cope.

@sirfredfredgeorge

and would like to be able to return to some kind of normality sooner rather than later

The problem is tieing normality to vaccination of these groups, SAGE does not believe the vaccines are good enough to make much difference at all to transmission, if we "trust the scientists" on this, then there's nothing that vaccinating these groups that makes a material difference to the options for normality. You either accept the risk of transmission when it doesn't lead to hospitalisations, or you remain with severe restrictions.

That's really not true. The latest Sage modelling shows clearly that they expect vaccines to prevent transmission at about the same rate as they protect from symptomatic disease. So somewhere between 60 and 95% reduction in transmission depending which vaccine and how many doses. A vaccinated person will be much less likely to transmit the virus, especially once they've had both doses. Though you're right that they haven't as yet made any rules about testing (which is mostly voluntary anyway) dependant on whether or not people are vaccinated.

@ancientgran

Local news just told us Dorset 70% had first dose of vaccine, Cornwall 66% and Devon 65%. That seems pretty good to me, not sure I'm right but sure someone will let me know.

I saw it too @ancientgran and they definitely said those were the %ages of adults over 16, so it's amazing progress. It also probably explains why our local GPs have stuck rigidly to the age timeline as I don't know of anyone under 50 without underlying health conditions who has been jabbed yet.

@sirfredfredgeorge

and would like to be able to return to some kind of normality sooner rather than later

The problem is tieing normality to vaccination of these groups, SAGE does not believe the vaccines are good enough to make much difference at all to transmission, if we "trust the scientists" on this, then there's nothing that vaccinating these groups that makes a material difference to the options for normality. You either accept the risk of transmission when it doesn't lead to hospitalisations, or you remain with severe restrictions.

Disregarding the fake news about vaccines not reducing transmission, my normality includes going to gigs, restaurants, holiday without having to have another stick stuck in my throat and up my nose. And hopefully when all teachers and parents are vaccinated, no more need for whole classes to be sent home for one case. .

So somewhere between 60 and 95% reduction in transmission depending which vaccine and how many doses

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/970807/S1140_SPI-M-O_MediumTermProjections.pdf

Is 48-75%? 48% is nowhere enough for herd immunity given all the unvaccinated groups.

The 60% minimum in your range might be enough if there's sufficient herd immunity in the other groups, but for that to happen we need to the low risk people to be catching it.

Even at 100% success in preventing transmission, it will not prevent cases alone (R0 of over 4 means we need kids vaccinated for that) with the lower rates sage believe you get, we're far from normality. The restrictions might be light but they certainly need to include test, trace and isolation.

@Lalalablahblahblah

Does anyone have an idea as to whether the under 30s now needing to receive Pfizer or Moderna will mean that the 30-49s will have to wait longer now? I guess if the Moderna delivery is going to be reserved it will, won't it?

Our staff have been advised that the Moderna roll out has had ministerial approval in England today, but due to temperature requirements will be available in fewer centres.

It Looks like most hubs will be doing second doses of AZ /Pfizer for the rest of April and a few will move to first doses of Moderna, although obviously it varies by area. I would advise anyone still needing to book to keep an eye on the national booking system.

Thanks @KikoMiko, I'm glad I didn't imagine it. I thought at the time it seemed high. Roll on freedom!