Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council area in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
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Regardless of the variants it is very worrying re Bolton. 75 new cases today. Just hope it’s brought under control before restrictions ease again.
I’m elsewhere in GM- a bit of panicking(scaremongering?) on Twitter about Bolton or possibly even GM facing restrictions AGAIN. You would hope that he vaccine will help slow the spread to at least some extent.

I'm worried too Frazzle and in a different but not too far away part of Greater Manchester.

You would hope that he vaccine will help slow the spread to at least some extent

Hopefully. Depending on the areas vaccine uptake this may be one of the first areas to stress test the vaccines efficacy fairly accurately. I presume that any differences between AZ and Pfizer are being watched closely.

Absolutely STUPENDOUS thread on twitter by John Burn Murdoch on the growth of the new variant and comparison to B1.117 in November/December.

mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1390666080646057988

Hope this link works.

Worth reading the first few comments too as they make good points about the differences in situation between now and then.

The only point I would make is that I disagree with him on his framing of the Gupta lab data on the two mutations in this variant. It is not that the E484Q is driving any fitness of the variant and that its other mutation L452R isn’t doing anything. It is that the combination of the two doesn’t add anything i.e they are not working synergistically.

E484Q isn’t linked to immune escape. That is it’s sister mutation E484K, which is found in the South Africa and Brazil variants.

mobile.twitter.com/GuptaR_lab/status/1388422662595219459

The PHE new report says about half are community transmission, so definitely needs stamping on. Some MSOA that have seen big case bumps this week; Kingshill Avenue, Elmsmead, Queensbury, Alperton - all with close links to India, if those aren't linked with travellers then likely to be the surge test areas. Bow, Heston, Northfields and Footscray possible; as the majority seem to be Ealing and Brent I expect only Heston will get wrapped in.

www.gov.uk/government/news/confirmed-cases-of-covid-19-variants-identified-in-uk
"Cases ofVOC-21APR-02 have increased to 520 from 202 over the last week and almost half the cases are related to travel or contact with a traveller. The cases are spread across the country, however, the majority of the cases are in 2 areas – the North West (predominantly Bolton) and London – and this is where we are seeing the greatest transmission."

Parts of Blackburn and all of Hyndburn ought to be included with all of Bolton for surge testing. Possibly parts of Bury, because Bury and Bolton always seemed to rise following each other in previous waves.

Those who were curious about Lugwardine, Withington & Moreton on Lugg - the Herefordshire cases, this "such as workplaces" makes it fairly clear there was a workforce outbreak (maybe Tyrrell's crisps looks likely for the area): www.herefordtimes.com/news/19274309.herefordshire-public-health-speaks-covid-cases-spike/.

@MRex

Parts of Blackburn and all of Hyndburn ought to be included with all of Bolton for surge testing. Possibly parts of Bury, because Bury and Bolton always seemed to rise following each other in previous waves.

Totally agree. I'm in hyndburn and happy to be part of surge testing.

Not to mention the outbreak in a local high school because some idiot didn't quarantine after returning from... you guessed it... India

@MRex

Parts of Blackburn and all of Hyndburn ought to be included with all of Bolton for surge testing. Possibly parts of Bury, because Bury and Bolton always seemed to rise following each other in previous waves.

At both of those the outbreaks are largely confined to a school, according to local media. One of them now totally shut.

I think the thing to watch to see what's going on with this Indian variant is case rates in London over the next week or so. If it is significantly more transmittable than the usual (Kent) strain we'll see cases start rising as this new strain seems now to be getting to a significant proportion of cases. Alternatively, if cases continue to fall or plateau in London, then there's probably nothing to worry about. The Bolton outbreak, I'm not so sure about - seems more localised, possibly linked mainly to one particular school, might be other explanations for that one.

Ah, so the Accrington outbreak could mean anyone exposed around there has been identified. If it were me I'd still do Bury, because each wave so far the links between Bury and surrounding areas seem to spread covid. No theories why, I don't know the area well enough. Travel hub?

Bury is at the end of a tram link into central Manchester. Maybe that's part of it.

Christina Pagel wrote an interesting thread last night about the B1.617.2:

mobile.twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1390745883495501825

There's an outbreak at Runshaw College (6th form) in Leyland. I don't know that area and whether that falls within Bolton and is driving cases.

www.lancs.live/news/lancashire-news/runshaw-college-confirms-indian-variant-20547273.amp?__twitter_impression=true

Leyland is not Bolton - I think South Ribble area

Zoe's numbers have been going up consistently over past 5 days or so.

The daily estimated transmission rate dropped to an incredibly low level (was it 800 or so?) but it is now on the rise (1,148 reported today). The two regions that seem to be driving the increase are London and North East and Yorkshire.

The absolute level is still very low but it is worth keeping an eye on.

On a more positive note, Tim Spector confirmed that Covid cases logged by vaccinated/partially vaccinated people appear much milder than they used to be.

Cases rising in Bedford.
www.itv.com/news/anglia/2021-05-08/covid-cases-triple-in-bedford-as-indian-variant-identified-in-town

My friend just told me they were all isolating because their kids (sixth form) have both tested positive in Bedford.

I like the response of the Scottish government to an increase in cases in Moray. The have immediately accelerated the vaccine rollout to all adults 18+ in the area, in an attempt to stop it spreading to surrounding areas.

I wonder if this would be possible elsewhere, or if it is only because of the relatively small population that they have the capacity to do it.

That's an interesting idea re vaccination in response to an outbreak. It's not a quick solution though. Even if it could do everyone instantly it's still going to be a couple of weeks before the vaccine is having any effect.

Fingers crossed that even though transmission figures are rising slightly, millions of people are now vaccinated or at least due to be.

We’ve also got to remain cautiously positive that the vaccines can be tweaked for any VOC!

It’s almost certain that cases will increase further again from the 17th May but as long as hospital figures remain low, that’s what we’ve got to hope for.

@Firefliess

That's an interesting idea re vaccination in response to an outbreak. It's not a quick solution though. Even if it could do everyone instantly it's still going to be a couple of weeks before the vaccine is having any effect.

Yes, I think they would need to catch increases very early to get maximum impact.

It would be interesting if they did the same with the area with the second highest level of cases (East Ayrshire, which is less than half the level of Moray at the moment), and see how quickly they can completely stamp it out there.