Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 6th April 2021

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UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
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Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control) rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
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⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

@MRex

Do you mind if I steal your figures on the risk of AZ clots please?

[quote Summerofcontent]@MRex

Do you mind if I steal your figures on the risk of AZ clots please?[/quote]
Of course not, help yourself. They would be better if aligning population to the risks outlined, but as a quick version they will do.

Thank you, it's just a quick, let's get this in context, which is needed

1 in 4 of those died, let's assume even distribution but multiply by 2019 population from Statista:
20-29: 2.75 per 1,000,000 (8.66m) = 24
30-39: 2 per 1,000,000 (8.9m) = 18
40-49: 1.25 per 1,000,000 (8.42m) = 11
50-59: 1 per 1,000,000 (9.07m) = 9
60-69: 0.5 per 1,000,000 (15.54m) = 8
Total estimated deaths of vaccinating 100% of UK population: 70.
More people than that died of covid on 21st March 2021 alone.

Comparative risks to younger people are starkly different beyond 30; ONS deaths of covid week 1 2020 to week 11 2021.
20-29: 180
30-39: 635
40-49: 2013
50-59: 6475
60-69: 14299
I'll leave the older deaths. They're here: www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/weeklyprovisionalfiguresondeathsregisteredinenglandandwales.

Should say 60+, not 60-69 above. Also
"Total estimated deaths of vaccinating 100% of UK population: 70."
Should say
"Total estimated deaths of vaccinating 100% of UK over-20s: 70."

We should also remember this is based on 3 people having died age 20-29; that's a very low number to judge estimates by, particularly if they may not all be vaccine related or it's just a bit of bad luck.

Thanks, that makes the risk even smaller.
I'm 50 with underlying conditions so there's no question is a benefit to have, but looking at those figures it makes you wonder why people are getting so worked up over it.

Someone on another thread posted this link to clots of a similar nature associated with Pfizer and Moderna.
If I'm reading it correctly (it's entirely possible I'm not) it also gives the risk of clots after the MMR and varicella vaccines which seems greater again, yet we happily use those vaccines

onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/ajh.26132

it makes you wonder why people are getting so worked up over it

I think it's a lot because covid is so remote a risk to many young people, that it's already discounted as irrelevant in risk terms, but they remember "you're selfish granny killers for going to the beach, the shops, out for more than an hours exercise" that being told actually this other thing we're saying you need to do for others actually might kill you, and you know it's very unlikely but we've not been very clear on the subject, and still aren't.

It's not about the risk (for some it is for sure, health anxiety is real) it's about the coercion.

@sirfredfredgeorge you make a very interesting point above. I hadn't thought of it this way before from the perspective of young adults, but I agree. I would feel similar. I kind of do anyway and I'm 41 (though have decided I will take the jab when offered it).

I see what you're saying.
For me, everything I've done so far is to protect others. Wear a mask, social distance, my job being risked (hospitality) and I see having a vaccine as something I'm doing to protect myself.

I can understand that young people, for whom the risk of covid is minimal, the vaccine is just one more thing they're doing for others.
Even this, frankly ridiculous, idea of covid passports is to benefit others

I wouldn't underestimate the desire on the part of young adults to get this pandemic over with. They're well aware that their personal risk from Covid is low, and the vaccine risk very low too, but they'd happily take either risk or more if it lets them get their lives back. They're not averse to keeping those around them safer too.

Hello all. Been away from this board recently.

I have been reading about the mechanism underpinning this rare type of blood clot and it has highlighted again the fact that we are still waiting on further data on Pfizer.

There have been cases of (slightly different) autoimmune reactions from Pfizer vaccine and I believe the FDA will be reporting in a couple of weeks.

Read this interesting medical magazine article linking Pfizer-associated vs AZ-associated deaths and severe adverse events.

www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/91813

That’s a helpful paper everythingthelighttouches

I was initially concerned listening to R4 this morning that Prof Andrew Pollard was arguing that second doses of AZ are safe because they haven’t seen as many clots. Which you would expect given that fewer second doses have been given...

However the explanation of the suspected mechanism is more reassuring.

Also here

blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/03/30/blood-clots-and-the-az-vaccine-revisited

And here

<a class="break-all" href="https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/08/health/immune-thrombocytopenia-covid-vaccine-blood.html?fbclid=IwAR2vpKDqbaiCxPpMySRwcc3sFKgZTluF1WfYZy5gLd2W2WDxEjVMzucE8sg#click=t.co/NmRIHhJH2c" rel="nofollow" target="_blank">www.nytimes.com/2021/02/08/health/immune-thrombocytopenia-covid-vaccine-blood.html?fbclid=IwAR2vpKDqbaiCxPpMySRwcc3sFKgZTluF1WfYZy5gLd2W2WDxEjVMzucE8sg#click=t.co/NmRIHhJH2c

America seems to be doing very well on vaccines - better than the UK now, with overall 19% of population fully vaccinated (I think UK is 10%) - and yet I hear a lot of reports that virus rates are still very high in places. I know there are lots of regional variations in virus rates, vaccine rates, mask-wearing, lockdown and other issues, but I'm surprised that with that many fully vaccinated, it's not been a more dramatic success. Is this to do with the Brazil variant that is becoming more prevalent there and the vaccines working less well, or is it just too soon to see the effects of the vaccine, as the program only seems to have really taken off quite recently?

America seems to be doing very well on vaccines - better than the UK now, with overall 19% of population fully vaccinated (I think UK is 10%) - and yet I hear a lot of reports that virus rates are still very high in places.

I think there are a few factors at play:

• One dose strategy adopted by the UK turned out more efficient in having an immediate impact on infections and transmissions.
• The level of infections we are seeing now is reflective of vaccination rates 4 weeks ago (3 weeks for developing immunity and 1 week incubation period). On March 10 UK vaccinated 34% of adults while US was at 19%. For comparison, Chile (which is now seeing a spike of infections) was at 23%.
• UK "has already lived" through the spike of B117 variant. Highly susceptible people were already infected back in December so our level of acquired immunity may be higher than in other countries (including the US).

I have attached the one dose only vaccination chart for UK, US and Chile.

thanks, I hadn't realised the one-dose difference was as big as that - I can see that could potentially have a big effect on case numbers. I hope it means that rates will soon still fall in the US

the variant issue is interesting too. I thought the B117 had already taken off in the US but maybe not so much as here where we are hopefully almost through it.

Also, in some states many things are still "open" (indoor dining, shops, etc.) so of course virus rates can still be very high. They really are only just finishing vaccinating their most vulnerable.

Now that vaccine availability has been opened to most people, as my friend put it, "it's going to pushy white people."

They also haven’t done as well as the UK at protecting their most vulnerable - the figure I saw yesterday was 75% of their 65+, compared to around 95% I think for us (with at least one dose). Plus as already said we have given around 60% of our adult population one dose, compared to about 40% for them

Yes, good point, that would certainly affect death/hospitalisation rates (though I haven't seen as much data about that, only general case rates).

I did see some data about 'breakthrough' virus cases in a number of vaccinated people in Michigan - they said 'fully' vaccinated, although within 2 weeks of the second, which people were using as evidence that they could have been infected before vaccination or caught it at the vaccine centre etc. I still thought it seemed a surprisingly high number given that it was the second dose, and we've had more success than that with first doses. The fact that they are doing the second doses 3/4 weeks after the first might have an effect there though.

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19infectionsinthecommunityinengland/characteristicsofpeopletestingpositiveforcovid19inengland8april2021

The three symptoms reported by those testing strongly positive were not the official three, but cough (OK yes), fatigue and headache....

@Firefliess. The road analogy is helpful, worthy of JVT.
I have a DS who has had one dose of AZ and I came on here looking for a reassuring statistic, it turned out he'd already come to the same conclusion.

fatigue and headache....

But remember it's not just the symptoms that you do have, it's the usefulness of those symptoms as a predictor to make it worth testing. So if the majority of fatigue and headaches are not covid, then it's a poor predictor. Which consumes test resources and potentially has people isolating needlessly.