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so scared of a 3rd wave

262 replies

Thedarksideofthemoon30 · 22/03/2021 15:40

"Boris Johnson has warned the effects of a third wave of coronavirus will "wash up on our shores" from Europe.
The PM said the UK should be "under no illusion" we will "feel effects" of growing cases on the continent."

anyone else worried that the planned out of lockdown now won't happen?

OP posts:
MarshaBradyo · 23/03/2021 17:24

Lol Tobee I did wonder if I’d typed in Sanskrit

cherish123 · 23/03/2021 17:26

In order to get back to normal, we need to keep up the vaccinating and close all borders for a few months. We are an island. How hard can it be?!

PrincessNutNuts · 23/03/2021 17:28

@MarshaBradyo

It's not negativity. It's experience. smile

But how have you experienced the stage of the pandemic where U.K. adults are vaccinated?

Nobody will be experiencing that for quite some time.

But I listen when Chris Whitty talks, and in my experience he was right when he was talking about winter 2020 being very tough back in Spring 2020.

So when he talks about another surge in late summer or Autumn, I believe him.

Because he's usually right and the "it'll be over by..." predictions have always been wrong.

tryinghardnottocry · 23/03/2021 17:28

This is from the Office Of National Statistics - paste into browser

www.ons.gov.uk/file?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/datasets/preexistingconditionsofpeoplewhodiedduetocovid19englandandwales/january2021updated/preexistingconditionsreferencetable6.xlsx

This will download a EXCEL spreadsheet

Go to tab "Table 1a" look at cell B28

There were 1,549 death from Covid-19 amongst those aged up to 64 in England and Wales for the year to 31 December 2020 (i.e. about 6 a day - Covid-19 deaths did not get underway until 1 April 2020) where no underlying heath issues were shown on the death certificate.

During the year to 2019 there were 1,752 deaths on the road (about 5 a day)

PrincessNutNuts · 23/03/2021 17:30

@MarshaBradyo

Can you not answer a question without a question Hmm

It’s not that hard!

That chart shows me that this long lockdown is working as well as the previous long lockdown.

In what way do you find it encouraging?

Pearshaped20 · 23/03/2021 17:34

I think we need to start opening up our own businesses and get the economy going here and see what happens. Lots of countries are experiencing huge increases in covid cases, I for one would rather get back to normality here first, open the pubs, restaurants music and entertainment venues and get on with life as normal as we can until everyone is vaccinated. I wouldn't look to be going abroad in the near future with expensive testing and quarantining... Not my idea of a holiday

MarshaBradyo · 23/03/2021 17:35

Princess I listen to him too and have found him right pretty much.

However it depends what you’re hearing because the detail / figures is what’s important. Also he has said we will tolerate a certain amount of risk (deaths) and we’ll be largely back to normal.

And what will happen, once the vaccination has rolled out across a wide enough part of the population, so that the most vulnerable are protected but also so that enough people are protected, to actually reduce the risk for the whole society – that’s going to take a rather long period of time, but months, not years.”

Whitty said restrictions will be lifted “stage by stage” and not in one go, which will allow life to get to “basically” how it was before the pandemic.

And on risk:

Then, ultimately, as Professor Whitty explained: “At a certain point, society, through political leaders, through elected ministers and through parliament, will say this level of risk is a level of risk that we think it is appropriate to tolerate.

“Just as we accept that in an average year 7,000 people die of flue, and in a bad flu year, 20,000 people die of flu. We accept that as that is what happens biologically.
“At a certain point you say, ‘actually, the risk is now low enough that we can largely do away with certainly the most onerous things that we have to deal with’.

“This will be a kind of gradual retreat from that, but it is a de-risking process rather than it’s just going to go away. We will de-risk hopefully to a very low level of risk, but I think it’s very unlikely we’ll get to zero level of risk.”

So we can all listen to him and you hear your version presumably but hearing above I reckon we’ll do as he says and vaccinate, go back to normal and accept level of risk.

HouseMoveHell2021 · 23/03/2021 17:39

@TheVampiresWife

I saw this on the BBC and was confused too. Surely our second wave was in October/November (hence LD2) and our third began roughly at Christmas (LD3)? Europe is surely where we were in early January, fighting the dominant Kent variant? And the majority of adults here have now been vaccinated so any new wave would be nowhere near as catastrophic - particularly as we're entering spring?

I can't help feeling that this is yet another one of those times where we're being prepared for shit news by the odd comment. I've been broadly understanding of all the measures until now but if the situation in Europe is cited as a reason to put the brakes on lifting restrictions, I'm not sure I'll have any understanding left.

I'm not sure that 50% counts as the majority! I am still waiting for mine as are most of my friends and family.... will be a while until its the majority!
PrincessNutNuts · 23/03/2021 17:46

@MarshaBradyo

Princess I listen to him too and have found him right pretty much.

However it depends what you’re hearing because the detail / figures is what’s important. Also he has said we will tolerate a certain amount of risk (deaths) and we’ll be largely back to normal.

And what will happen, once the vaccination has rolled out across a wide enough part of the population, so that the most vulnerable are protected but also so that enough people are protected, to actually reduce the risk for the whole society – that’s going to take a rather long period of time, but months, not years.”

Whitty said restrictions will be lifted “stage by stage” and not in one go, which will allow life to get to “basically” how it was before the pandemic.

And on risk:

Then, ultimately, as Professor Whitty explained: “At a certain point, society, through political leaders, through elected ministers and through parliament, will say this level of risk is a level of risk that we think it is appropriate to tolerate.

“Just as we accept that in an average year 7,000 people die of flue, and in a bad flu year, 20,000 people die of flu. We accept that as that is what happens biologically.
“At a certain point you say, ‘actually, the risk is now low enough that we can largely do away with certainly the most onerous things that we have to deal with’.

“This will be a kind of gradual retreat from that, but it is a de-risking process rather than it’s just going to go away. We will de-risk hopefully to a very low level of risk, but I think it’s very unlikely we’ll get to zero level of risk.”

So we can all listen to him and you hear your version presumably but hearing above I reckon we’ll do as he says and vaccinate, go back to normal and accept level of risk.

Yes.

But where you and I seem to disagree is in the timing of this.

I don't see us reaching this point this year.

I hope for it next year.

PrincessNutNuts · 23/03/2021 17:46

@Pearshaped20

I think we need to start opening up our own businesses and get the economy going here and see what happens. Lots of countries are experiencing huge increases in covid cases, I for one would rather get back to normality here first, open the pubs, restaurants music and entertainment venues and get on with life as normal as we can until everyone is vaccinated. I wouldn't look to be going abroad in the near future with expensive testing and quarantining... Not my idea of a holiday
We know what happens.
Ilovecreamycoffee · 23/03/2021 17:52

I'm in an eu country and I am terrified. I was afraid last year when this virus emerged but I saw the public health team working hard at suppressing the virus. I trusted them, I continued all the guidelines and I felt somewhat at ease.

I am now more afraid now that I ever was before. I got the vaccine from work but I am because other people - my family and partner are not vaccinated. I am relying on so many people in the population to do the right thing to help suppress the virus but it's failing. Try not to risk the virus and spread it on to others. I see it left, right and centre every day. I read it every day online. So many people giving up with the public health guidelines because they are bored and want their old lifes back.

When this pandemic emerged and guidelines were introduced, I saw I had a civil duty to do what is being asked of me and follow the guidelines. There will definitely be a third wave and its going be dangerous because of people being too ignorant. They see the vaccines are being rolled out and they think they have a licence to do what they want even though the vaccine roll out is so slow. In Ireland the over 70s in communities still haven't been touched and my understanding of the virus is that its also hitting middle aged people too. A lot of people will be put at risk from peoples ignorance and the 'armchair public health people'.

ddl1 · 23/03/2021 17:54

I think Boris J. has been in so much trouble for underestimating the virus in the past and opening up too quickly, and for e.g. promising people a 'normal Christmas' and then having to backtrack, that he's now being if anything too pessimistic.

Also, I think both our dear Prime Minister and the EU leaders are politicizing the pandemic and the vaccines in their squabbling and rivalries. Boris Johnson and Ursula van der Leyen deserve each other! But neither we nor the EU citizens deserve either of them.

TheOneWithTheBigNose · 23/03/2021 17:54

I'm not sure that 50% counts as the majority! I am still waiting for mine as are most of my friends and family.... will be a while until its the majority!

Err... you do know what majority means, right? It’s a number greater than half. As we hit 50% a few days ago, more than half have now been vaccinated. A majority.

Pearshaped20 · 23/03/2021 17:56

PrincessNutNuts
we know what's happened previously, we don't yet know how effective the vaccine will be against the current variants and how long that protection will last

MarshaBradyo · 23/03/2021 18:00

Princess if you read Whitty’s first comment he would say this year. Do you disagree with his view?

Miasicarisatia · 23/03/2021 18:00

seems like all bets are still off then:(

Sitchervice · 23/03/2021 18:11

I don't think number of cases is being taken into consideration any more as this is going to be a permanent thing yearly illness that needs jabs

This is what's on BBC - www.google.com/amp/s/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/explainers-52530518

What are the four tests for easing restrictions?
-The coronavirus vaccine programme continues to go to plan
-Vaccines are sufficiently reducing the number of people dying or needing hospital treatment
-Infection rates do not risk a surge in hospital admissions
-New coronavirus variants do not fundamentally change the risk of lifting restrictions

It's not logical to keep us in lockdown forever. And it dosnt mention cases just hospital admissions

TheVampiresWife · 23/03/2021 18:12

@PrincessNutNuts this lockdown has been nowhere near as strict as the first one. Millions more people are at work and more workplaces are open than LD1. Schools have been open for a few weeks. More retail is open so more staff and customers milling about together. There are students on campuses. And even with all of this, hospital admissions and deaths are right down, and over a million and a half daily tests are only turning up around 5000 positive cases.

I'd call that encouraging.

cyclingmad · 23/03/2021 18:15

We should move to the Australian model borders closed so we can live normally again. And borders shut doesn't mean cannot leave it just means for exceptional circumstances actually I think that's what this new law that came in does effectively.

And good thing too, I can go another yr without going abroad but I cannot do any more time locked up with nothing to do or go or see family. I want gyms opens, I want to go swimming and get my hair cut. I want to go chill with my friends and family, maybe go eat out.

HouseMoveHell2021 · 23/03/2021 18:24

@Pearshaped20

PrincessNutNuts we know what's happened previously, we don't yet know how effective the vaccine will be against the current variants and how long that protection will last
fully aware degree educated individual in a professional job here- we are JUST over 50% vaccinated and looking at a slow down. lots hold off implying that most people are vaccinated and its all safe until we are a bit further past the half way point!
Kazzyhoward · 23/03/2021 18:25

@cyclingmad

We should move to the Australian model borders closed so we can live normally again. And borders shut doesn't mean cannot leave it just means for exceptional circumstances actually I think that's what this new law that came in does effectively.

And good thing too, I can go another yr without going abroad but I cannot do any more time locked up with nothing to do or go or see family. I want gyms opens, I want to go swimming and get my hair cut. I want to go chill with my friends and family, maybe go eat out.

Australia doesn't have a tunnel and short ferry crossing with thousands of vans/lorries coming/going every day. You can't just transfer all those journeys onto freight containers without massive changes on both sides of the Channel.

Even "closed" borders doesn't prevent covid spreading. Just look at Isle of Man - they were congratulating themselves about having "normal" lives until a ferry worker caught it and spread it, something like 1,000 infected in just 3/4 weeks and they're now in lockdown again.

Not to mention the Irish situation!

borntobequiet · 23/03/2021 18:25

He said it partially to distract from the fact that we’re busy incubating a “third wave” in schools and colleges.
Today I walked past a number of classrooms with 15 to 20 adults - about half unmasked- sitting well within a metre of one another. They were there for some hours. This happens one day a week, on the other days they are mixing with others at work or at home. But there is magic tape on the floor and hand gel on the wall, and they pretend they are in a “bubble” so of course are safe.

Kazzyhoward · 23/03/2021 18:27

[quote TheVampiresWife]@PrincessNutNuts this lockdown has been nowhere near as strict as the first one. Millions more people are at work and more workplaces are open than LD1. Schools have been open for a few weeks. More retail is open so more staff and customers milling about together. There are students on campuses. And even with all of this, hospital admissions and deaths are right down, and over a million and a half daily tests are only turning up around 5000 positive cases.

I'd call that encouraging.[/quote]
There may be some students on campuses, but they're not actually allowed to do much. Most are spending most of their time in their rooms. The "lucky" few that are getting lab/practical teaching aren't really doing anything else. But most students aren't on campus at all - they're following the rules and staying at home - the general rule/advice is to stay at home unless your course has practical sessions or you can't study at home. In my son's campus flat of 8, there are only 3 living in it at the moment - the other 5 aren't there.

Bagamoyo1 · 23/03/2021 18:29

I think Boris constantly treads a fine line between keeping us positive (so we don’t kill ourselves or riot in the street), and terrifying us so we don’t get complacent and start having parties. Next week he’ll probably be telling us how much progress we’ve made. Then the week after we’ll be back to being scared again.

Vynalbob · 23/03/2021 18:30

Don't think it will happen but I'm seeing more and more groups of kids hanging around after school and 'shoppers' not using masks (worse ever today fit young couple 'in looks' mask less... highly unlikely to be both exempt ... counted 7... everyone stopped for a minutes silence to pay respect...almost wanting another wave.