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Original poster

so scared of a 3rd wave

262 replies

Thedarksideofthemoon30 · 22/03/2021 15:40

"Boris Johnson has warned the effects of a third wave of coronavirus will "wash up on our shores" from Europe.
The PM said the UK should be "under no illusion" we will "feel effects" of growing cases on the continent."

anyone else worried that the planned out of lockdown now won't happen?

OP posts:
TheMildManneredMilitant · 22/03/2021 19:38

Agree with pp who said it's just about climbing down over vaccine standoff with EU. I think they'll announce some kind of collaboration/sharing of resource if they haven't done already and use potential 3rd wave threat as justification as in 'we are still protecting ourselves by helping vaccinate our closest neighbours'. Everyone gets to save face.

BrintIg · 22/03/2021 22:27

Developing countries have asked the UK/US/etc. to waive the patents that stop them being allowed to produce the vaccine themselves (at least temporarily, not even forever). This would lead to increased vaccine production and less deaths worldwide, but the aforementioned countries have refused. Why? Because those patents ensure the pharmaceutical companies in their countries (and thus they, indirectly) get/remain very rich.

The point here is that the top cats will have had a discussion weighing up the costs of a third/fourth wave and/or a new vaccine-resistant variant vs. the costs of waiving global patent rules until the end of the pandemic. The fact that they've decided not to waive them suggests they think the former is highly unlikely. At least in their opinion!

MRex · 22/03/2021 22:53

Having a raft of inexperienced people creating substandard vaccines that don't work effectively isn't a good idea. Experienced labs find it hard and make mistakes, so the issues arising from losing all production control could affect worldwide vaccine confidence for decades. Slowing of production relates to lower vaccine yields, but there are also occasional shortages of everything from needles to vials and many ingredients. None of these common issues will be solved by giving away patents. Think about it, if it was just that easy to spin up a lab with all materials and trained staff, then churn out vaccines - why would there not be 50 more for each of these vaccines right now run by the pharma companies?

Patents also don't belong to governments in general, they are the proven intellectual property of the inventors and are therefore not a possession that a government can nor should give away. Pressure to help on a non-profit / minimal profit basis during the pandemic is fair, but no more than that.

AbstractDot · 22/03/2021 23:15

I thought new variants usually evolved to be more infectious but less deadly to survive? So why are all these variants we hear of always bad news? Has a variant been found and highlighted that gives a short milder illness or has a protective effect on deadlier variants, for example!?! When did 'variant' start to equal 'bad'!?

BrintIg · 22/03/2021 23:16

@MRex

Having a raft of inexperienced people creating substandard vaccines that don't work effectively isn't a good idea. Experienced labs find it hard and make mistakes, so the issues arising from losing all production control could affect worldwide vaccine confidence for decades. Slowing of production relates to lower vaccine yields, but there are also occasional shortages of everything from needles to vials and many ingredients. None of these common issues will be solved by giving away patents. Think about it, if it was just that easy to spin up a lab with all materials and trained staff, then churn out vaccines - why would there not be 50 more for each of these vaccines right now run by the pharma companies?

Patents also don't belong to governments in general, they are the proven intellectual property of the inventors and are therefore not a possession that a government can nor should give away. Pressure to help on a non-profit / minimal profit basis during the pandemic is fair, but no more than that.

The labs already exist in other countries, producing millions of vaccines per year. They just can't make these exact ones, because they're patented.

Regarding the legalities of it: www.dw.com/en/rich-countries-block-india-south-africas-bid-to-ban-covid-vaccine-patents/a-56460175

They could. They just don't want to. Suggesting, as I said, that they're not actually too worried about new variants emerging.

RedcurrantPuff · 22/03/2021 23:17

@AbstractDot

I thought new variants usually evolved to be more infectious but less deadly to survive? So why are all these variants we hear of always bad news? Has a variant been found and highlighted that gives a short milder illness or has a protective effect on deadlier variants, for example!?! When did 'variant' start to equal 'bad'!?
Someone posted on here that more infectious but causing less severe illness could still cause more hospitalisations and deaths which I guess makes sense just due to numbers x
PrincessNutNuts · 22/03/2021 23:23

@LaurieFairyCake

I'm a bit baffled by him saying this Confused

We've had our second and third wave combined

Plus so many have now been vaccinated the cases are really low

I don't understand at all Confused

As far as I know 58% of the U.K. population are completely unvaccinated, and only 3.4% have had both doses.
PrincessNutNuts · 22/03/2021 23:30

@Chatterbox1987

We very may well see an increase in cases but deaths and hospitalizations should remain and a very low level... so we will feel the effects but it will be no way near as deadly.
Chris Whitty said recently that all the modelling showed a minimum of another 30,000 deaths.
PrincessNutNuts · 22/03/2021 23:33

@ekidmxcl

We’ve got to get control of the number of cases (I don’t think 5000 new per day is controlled) and we also have to control Covid coming into the country. Until then, we will have a shitty existence.
THIS,
PrincessNutNuts · 22/03/2021 23:42

@SilverGlitterBaubles

I think Boris is softening up for a deal with the EU re vaccines, he can't be seen to climb down of course but it's in his interest to come to some agreement. This and also preparing us for the idea that holidays are out of the question this summer.
Aren't foreign holidays actually illegal?

"No person may, without a reasonable excuse—
(a) leave England to travel to a destination outside the United Kingdom, or
(b) travel to, or be present at, an embarkation point for the purpose of travelling from there to a destination outside the United Kingdom."

PrincessNutNuts · 22/03/2021 23:43

@KOKOagainandagain

We just don't know about the effect of lockdown with vaccination and seasonality with vaccination with partial vaccination of some.

Likewise the easing of lockdown in spring with the partial vaccination of some.

We also don't know about the response of a dynamic virus to partial vaccination of a subset of the population during a pandemic. Especially if you increase spread internationally.

Science is used to closed systems where the change in one variable whilst keeping others the same results in objective data.

That is not possible in a fast moving open system where politicised social factors become effective and where people can't wait for clear data because of real or perceived hardship in the here and now.

THIS.
PrincessNutNuts · 22/03/2021 23:49

@LysistrataVickers

And what's the fucking point in vaccinations then.
Vaccines help. A lot.

But they're not instant magical solutions.

Particularly at the point we're at where 58% of the U.K. population hasn't had one yet and only 3.4% have had both doses.

PrincessNutNuts · 22/03/2021 23:58

@AbstractDot

I thought new variants usually evolved to be more infectious but less deadly to survive? So why are all these variants we hear of always bad news? Has a variant been found and highlighted that gives a short milder illness or has a protective effect on deadlier variants, for example!?! When did 'variant' start to equal 'bad'!?
Covid isn't having any trouble surviving.

We keep saying things like "The number of cases doesn't matter" and letting it spread.

Also maths. The more transmissible it is the faster it gets round, so the faster it gets to people it can make seriously il.

And some of the new variants are more deadly. As well as more transmissible.

We generally only hear about the Variants of Interest that we don't know much about yet, and the Variants of Concern which we know enough about to be, um, concerned. There's not really any need to hear about any others. There aren't any Good News Variants.

PrincessNutNuts · 23/03/2021 06:37

The "Blame Europe for everything" strategy never gets old for this government does it?

I think they can already see the roadmap faltering at the second hurdle and are lining up their scapegoat.

MarshaBradyo · 23/03/2021 06:45

@PrincessNutNuts

The "Blame Europe for everything" strategy never gets old for this government does it?

I think they can already see the roadmap faltering at the second hurdle and are lining up their scapegoat.

Blame them how?

Which statement are you referring to? The wash up one? Is this not going to happen

FourTeaFallOut · 23/03/2021 06:49

In what way is the roadmap faltering at the second hurdle? Is it case numbers remaining lower w-o-w this week compared to last week, the reduced hospital admissions by 20% or the number of deaths falling 40%?

MarshaBradyo · 23/03/2021 06:50

@FourTeaFallOut

In what way is the roadmap faltering at the second hurdle? Is it case numbers remaining lower w-o-w this week compared to last week, the reduced hospital admissions by 20% or the number of deaths falling 40%?
This too.
FourTeaFallOut · 23/03/2021 07:04

I mean, I'll admit, holidays abroad are well and truly on the ropes but that's not the second hurdle by anyone's account, is it? Being able to meet up with others outdoors seems like a far more fundamental approximation to normal that jetting off on holiday and that it coming next and I don't see how that could be in jeopardy.

TheOneWithTheBigNose · 23/03/2021 07:48

I hate the language being used currently around international travel. ‘Jetting off on holiday’ etc. I haven’t seen my family for 16 months now and have no prospect of seeing them any time soon. Also, it is now illegal to leave the country.

MarshaBradyo · 23/03/2021 07:51

@TheOneWithTheBigNose

I hate the language being used currently around international travel. ‘Jetting off on holiday’ etc. I haven’t seen my family for 16 months now and have no prospect of seeing them any time soon. Also, it is now illegal to leave the country.
Wasn’t it illegal before today? From the stay at home order date.
FourTeaFallOut · 23/03/2021 07:55

Half of our family are in NZ, including two nieces we have never met, so I have some sympathy for your distaste for the 'jetting off on holiday' phrase I used but it's just how it is, isn't it? When it comes to the whole of the population, travelling abroad has less impact on the day to day freedoms in life than being allowed out of your own front door with a handful of other people.

TheOneWithTheBigNose · 23/03/2021 08:00

No @MarshaBradyo. There is now a £5000 fine for travelling without a reason sanctioned by the State.

Frazzled2207 · 23/03/2021 08:06

@Chatterbox1987

We very may well see an increase in cases but deaths and hospitalizations should remain and a very low level... so we will feel the effects but it will be no way near as deadly.
This is what I am hoping. Feeling the effects does not necessarily mean back to square 1 again. As it stands, cases are static, deaths and hospitalisations are tumbling.
MarshaBradyo · 23/03/2021 08:09

@TheOneWithTheBigNose

No *@MarshaBradyo*. There is now a £5000 fine for travelling without a reason sanctioned by the State.
Is it just the fine?

It was illegal before as didn’t an MP say there’s no point in booking something that is currently illegal - a few weeks back

SilverGlitterBaubles · 23/03/2021 08:12

@PrincessNutNuts

The "Blame Europe for everything" strategy never gets old for this government does it?

I think they can already see the roadmap faltering at the second hurdle and are lining up their scapegoat.

Agreed, things may not happen as planned so they need to blame the EU.