so scared of a 3rd wave

[Thedarksideofthemoon30]

"Boris Johnson has warned the effects of a third wave of coronavirus will "wash up on our shores" from Europe.
The PM said the UK should be "under no illusion" we will "feel effects" of growing cases on the continent."

anyone else worried that the planned out of lockdown now won't happen?

I'm a bit baffled by him saying this

We've had our second and third wave combined

Plus so many have now been vaccinated the cases are really low

I don't understand at all

Nope

Any thoughts on when this may be the case?

@LaurieFairyCake

I'm a bit baffled by him saying this

We've had our second and third wave combined

Plus so many have now been vaccinated the cases are really low

I don't understand at all

We still have a lot of the population unvaccinated. Also big issue is the variants. Europe will probably create loads of new variants as they are so behind with vaccines.

Fucking excellent. So that's with the wanting to keep government covid powers until September/October. Cool.

This time next year we will still be in the same fucking boat. Given a glimmer of hope every couple of months for it to be snatched away again. Maybe the real pandemic is suicide but we've not been told 🤔

And what's the fucking point in vaccinations then.

I'm confused too. We were always a bit behind Europe until just before December with cases growing here and then the discovery of the Kent variant. Surely that was our 3rd wave and made us switch places in front of Europe who are now catching up with us? Plus we are vaccinating so many. I don't get it.

I thought half of our population were vaccinated. Wouldn't that help?

If the vaccine holds up then any third wave will be greatly reduced in impact as there will be significantly fewer deaths and hospitalisations even if cases go up
The main variant hitting Europe at the moment seems to be the Kent one that caused our second wave so has already been here. Bear in mind that Boris changes the narrative as it suits him and he's under pressure from backbenchers to relax restrictions quicker at the moment so finding reasons why not to. So yeah, not worried yet, a case of wait and see again I guess.

Europe is suffering because of the Kent variant the one we struggled with in December/Jan that coupled with our vaccination program, seasonality benefits and existing immunity means even if we do get a third wave the NHS will not be overwhelmed. They have said this morning the roadmap is still on course. 3rd wave doesn’t mean another lockdown. They would have a very hard time justifying another lockdown when the majority of the vulnerable population is vaccinated. Also there were 10s of thousands marching in London at the weekend over this lockdown those numbers would be even bigger should they try to do this again.

Also big issue is the variants. Europe will probably create loads of new variants as they are so behind with vaccines
There was a virologist on R4 this morning saying the thing the scientists most worry about now is A finding a variant that can evade the vaccines and B not seeing it coming because it comes from somewhere with less genome sequencing than eg UK or SA.
I don’t think the government really think we’ll be at huge risk of a third wave as such but are using this language to say ‘don’t get your hopes
up about going on any foreign holidays this year’. The always dip their toe in the water to gauge reaction first don’t they

I saw this on the BBC and was confused too. Surely our second wave was in October/November (hence LD2) and our third began roughly at Christmas (LD3)? Europe is surely where we were in early January, fighting the dominant Kent variant? And the majority of adults here have now been vaccinated so any new wave would be nowhere near as catastrophic - particularly as we're entering spring?

I can't help feeling that this is yet another one of those times where we're being prepared for shit news by the odd comment. I've been broadly understanding of all the measures until now but if the situation in Europe is cited as a reason to put the brakes on lifting restrictions, I'm not sure I'll have any understanding left.

Here's a few effects of the EU third wave washing up on our shores:

1. EU taking legally acquired UK vaccines to use on their own population, thereby delaying our roll-out
2. Supply chain disruption for food and other goods due to EU lockdowns and illness
3. EU holidays with a range of SA and Brazil variants growing will need to be banned or tightly managed to minimise issues with keeping those strains out of the UK until vaccine boosters arrive
4. Increased genome testing; we have a lot of trade with the EU if nothing else, there is a constant need to track the unwanted variants with increased testing to minimise spread
5. Half the population aren't vaccinated yet, herd immunity doesn't hit until we pass an unknown figure but maybe 70% with 2 doses. People may be less unwell, but many will still need medical support.

It thankfully isn't starting with the NHS being overwhelmed nor very high death rates, in that respect it should be milder, but there are serious problems nonetheless.

I’m not concerned that we will deviate from our current plans to ease restrictions but who knows what will happen in the future and I’m not ruling out tightening up again.

Realistically we’re doing quite well at the moment but there are too many unknowns and unprovable factors to seriously make any promises about where we will or won’t be in six months time.

The vaccines and covid and it’s subsequent varieties are completely unknown quantities at the moment. It’s foolish to whole heartedly believe that we’re nearing the end of all this, it’s impossible to call and can’t be relied on with any certainty until we’re a good few months into stability. Even then global factors are beyond our control. Look at New Zealand; they’ve been living normally and it’s population don’t need to give any headspace to the pandemic except peripherally but they’re not ‘finished’ by any means.

My advice would be to enjoy the relaxations while you can but prepare for anything to come out of the left field further down the line.

He needs to be very careful with his ‘narrative’ people are on their knees, lost businesses, homes, mental health in tatters. If vaccinating at least 50% of your population has no impact then what’s the point?

He’s struggling to justify lockdown going on for another month or two due to low cases and high vaccinations. They’re ramping up the fear message yet again. I predicted a scary new variant will be discovered just before Easter.

@Delatron

He needs to be very careful with his ‘narrative’ people are on their knees, lost businesses, homes, mental health in tatters. If vaccinating at least 50% of your population has no impact then what’s the point?

He’s struggling to justify lockdown going on for another month or two due to low cases and high vaccinations. They’re ramping up the fear message yet again. I predicted a scary new variant will be discovered just before Easter.

Think you are completely right.

I must admit my heart sank when I heard this this afternoon, my own resilience levels are struggling and I doubt I'm the only one feeling this way

No. Fewer and fewer people will comply with these lockdowns.

So much for the “just get vaccinated so we can go back to normal” comments that I keep reading on Mumsnet.

I predict a scary new variant will be discovered just before easter

Or the kids will shoulder the blame again for being disease riddled granny killers ,it'll be one or the other

Urgh! It's just so exhausting now

@Donotfeedthebears

So much for the “just get vaccinated so we can go back to normal” comments that I keep reading on Mumsnet.

Yeah, now it's 'more lockdowns' 'another wave, stay at home'. Rinse and repeat.

They can keep shops and businesses closed (and hammer the economy even more in the process) but he’s going to have a hard time telling people who are fully vaccinated that they still can’t see their families a year down the line. People won’t comply. So he’ll hammer the economy for no reason.

@LaurieFairyCake

I'm a bit baffled by him saying this

We've had our second and third wave combined

Plus so many have now been vaccinated the cases are really low

I don't understand at all

Is it the vaccinations or 3 months of "lockdown" that our cases are currently so low? I suspect they'd be at low levels even without the vaccinations as the downward graph of positive tests is pretty similar to the Mar>Jun lockdown.

@Delatron

He needs to be very careful with his ‘narrative’ people are on their knees, lost businesses, homes, mental health in tatters. If vaccinating at least 50% of your population has no impact then what’s the point?

He’s struggling to justify lockdown going on for another month or two due to low cases and high vaccinations. They’re ramping up the fear message yet again. I predicted a scary new variant will be discovered just before Easter.

We've only just vaccinated 50%. Over half of those have received vaccinations in the last month or so. The effects of vaccination will be kicking it more in the next month or two to coincide with the easing of the lockdowns.

My heart sank too, when I read it. It’s so depressing. I really feel for the kids and the older generation. It surely can’t lead to another lockdown. How the hell are people going to survive all this?