so scared of a 3rd wave

[Thedarksideofthemoon30]

"Boris Johnson has warned the effects of a third wave of coronavirus will "wash up on our shores" from Europe.
The PM said the UK should be "under no illusion" we will "feel effects" of growing cases on the continent."

anyone else worried that the planned out of lockdown now won't happen?

@Laytwir024 why would I be angry about a virus? It's biology. I personally think it's the people who are clamouring for lockdowns to last forevermore are the ones who need to get some perspective and accept that infectious diseases exist and will kill people.

This is the third wave same as we are having in Ireland. Only big and extremely worrying difference is we have only 10% of our population vaccinated. Also in the UK while 50% of adults have had their 1st vaccine they need their second to be vaccinated fully or 94% or whatever the figure is this week.

@ekidmxcl

We’ve got to get control of the number of cases (I don’t think 5000 new per day is controlled) and we also have to control Covid coming into the country. Until then, we will have a shitty existence.

The amount of testing though has sky rocketed though since schools returned, the fact that cases haven't risen and merely maintained surely indicates that the positivity rate is actually decreasing, and the people being tested are actually the ones are supposed to be one of the biggest contributors of spread

We really wouldn't be facing so much risk if EU had vaccinated their populations faster than they have. Quibbling about the efficiency of the vaccine was only a screen to hide their unorganised bureaucracies.
'They' will get the SA variant worse, 'they' will prolong the life of that SA pool.
We will suffer.
None of that is the fault of Boris or the Government. (unfortunately we can't even blame the Test & Trace Tart).

It is beyond our control.
I hope and expect that it has no more effect than delaying some of these dates by a week or so.

These latest comments are all crowd control! Don’t be fooled. 72% of all positive cases in France are the Kent variant so that 3rd wave has already been and gone in the uk and is currently firmly the dominant strain with the South African and Brasilia’s strain holding around 5% of cases.

They can see the British public are getting restless (London and Bristol protests) and questioning the slow release of lockdown and so they must send out more doom to re-scare everyone and make sure everyone sticks to the rules!

All the way through there has been a risk of civil disobedience and just as the crowd started to turn they have rolled out another fear campaign. I agree with a previous poster, there will soon be a discovery of a new strain

I think the opposite is true. Continental Europe is now seeing the effects of the Kent variant, we had the 2nd and 3rd waive together, they have managed to slow down the spread because they had the knowledge that we didn't have when we discovered the Kent variant. Now it's spreading out of control on the continent, just like it spread here back in January.

I think Boris got it wrong. Quelle surprise.

Germany is imposing some level of lockdown because they have a measure of when ICU would be overwhelmed - 100/100,000 positive cases. Sick people are hospitalised and referred to ICU. That's why they have a low death rate.

In the UK 100/100,000 does not have the same response. That's why we have one of the highest death rates in the world.

Even if vaccination was 100% effective against all known variants and as yet unknown variants and everybody had been effectively vaccinated we would face a long uphill battle to average.

All this ‘the situation in Europe’ what the exact situation we were in in Jan/Feb? Why do we think that will last well in to the summer? It’s only March. We’ve had the Kent variant wave here already. We passed in on to Europe..

Isn’t he saying it to justify sharing jabs with the eu?

We still have a lot of the population unvaccinated

The demographic of the 50% who have been vaccinated is responsible for 99% of deaths.

I find the Brazil news more frightening. Their situation is awful.

I thought the wave in Europe was the UK/Kent variant. I am so tired of it all now. The approximate dates for releasing the lockdowns were keeping me going. I am hoping that the vaccine works to prevent major illness. I would like a relatively normal life now, and every country to be able to get in with the vaccine.

If Europe get on with theirs then that will be good for us and them. I hope that we get enough vaccine in now for the rest of our program. I am hating all of the petty political squabbling that is also going on.

All these "new" variants will "rip through schools " and the "flocked beaches " in the warmer weather and we're back into lockdown yet again because these super spreader children aren't vaccinated and people are "selfish " for wanting a day at the seaside, I mean you can see coming a mile off can't you, and the most scary thing is people will fall for it again and happily accept it

Yes. It’s so fucking depressing. People’s reaction to covid has scared me so much more than the virus itself during the last year.

@Judashascomeintosomemoney

Also big issue is the variants. Europe will probably create loads of new variants as they are so behind with vaccines There was a virologist on R4 this morning saying the thing the scientists most worry about now is A finding a variant that can evade the vaccines and B not seeing it coming because it comes from somewhere with less genome sequencing than eg UK or SA. I don’t think the government really think we’ll be at huge risk of a third wave as such but are using this language to say ‘don’t get your hopes up about going on any foreign holidays this year’. The always dip their toe in the water to gauge reaction first don’t they

There's been some talk of a variant showing up in the Breton area of France that isn't detected by the tests we're currently using, so that's a concern... Still very few cases from what I read though so hopefully by the time it shows up more, they'll have adjusted the tests.

Although one vaccination is not ‘fully vaccinated’ the first vaccine has a high percentage of protection. More than the flu jab each year. So we are saying the fact that even though 50% of adult population have had a very effective first jab, that will have zero effect on cases and hospitalisations going in to summer?

When last summer we had zero vaccinations. And low cases and hospitalisations/deaths.

Either the vaccines are effective or the studies are lying. If they are not effective and have no impact on loosening restrictions then what’s the point in having them? Boris needs to be very careful right now. We have a high vaccine uptake. If nothing changes despite that then people won’t bother. And that would be a disaster.

@TheOneWithTheBigNose

We still have a lot of the population unvaccinated

The demographic of the 50% who have been vaccinated is responsible for 99% of deaths.

But the ones who are blamed for spreading it are the unvaccinated ones

@Delatron

Although one vaccination is not ‘fully vaccinated’ the first vaccine has a high percentage of protection. More than the flu jab each year. So we are saying the fact that even though 50% of adult population have had a very effective first jab, that will have zero effect on cases and hospitalisations going in to summer?

When last summer we had zero vaccinations. And low cases and hospitalisations/deaths.

Either the vaccines are effective or the studies are lying. If they are not effective and have no impact on loosening restrictions then what’s the point in having them? Boris needs to be very careful right now. We have a high vaccine uptake. If nothing changes despite that then people won’t bother. And that would be a disaster.

Exactly this. At the moment, Boris is doing more for the anti vax movement than the anti vaxxers themselves.

@quiteathome

I find the Brazil news more frightening. Their situation is awful.

I thought the wave in Europe was the UK/Kent variant. I am so tired of it all now. The approximate dates for releasing the lockdowns were keeping me going. I am hoping that the vaccine works to prevent major illness. I would like a relatively normal life now, and every country to be able to get in with the vaccine.

If Europe get on with theirs then that will be good for us and them. I hope that we get enough vaccine in now for the rest of our program. I am hating all of the petty political squabbling that is also going on.

100% agree with this

That didn't take long www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9389207/New-York-Covid-variant-evade-vaccine-triggered-immunity-UK.html

sorry for the daily fail link

@Delatron

Although one vaccination is not ‘fully vaccinated’ the first vaccine has a high percentage of protection. More than the flu jab each year. So we are saying the fact that even though 50% of adult population have had a very effective first jab, that will have zero effect on cases and hospitalisations going in to summer?

When last summer we had zero vaccinations. And low cases and hospitalisations/deaths.

Either the vaccines are effective or the studies are lying. If they are not effective and have no impact on loosening restrictions then what’s the point in having them? Boris needs to be very careful right now. We have a high vaccine uptake. If nothing changes despite that then people won’t bother. And that would be a disaster.

No - that's not what they're saying at all.

Last summer we were emerging from lockdown with a very low level of community cases and about 2 months behind where we are this year - i.e. we went into lockdown in March and emerged mid summer. This year we are emerging far earlier.

The vaccines will have an impact on hospitalisations/deaths, but with significantly more contagious strains in circulation, if we relax too soon, or allow lots of cases to be imported, then we'll have a big third wave of infections.

There's a vocal minority who appear unable or unwilling to grasp the risk this presents despite being told NUMEROUS times by just about every scientist involved - a high level of new cases, will undo most of the benefits of our vaccination program, and will eventually have to be combated with another lockdown.

I think Boris is softening up for a deal with the EU re vaccines, he can't be seen to climb down of course but it's in his interest to come to some agreement. This and also preparing us for the idea that holidays are out of the question this summer.

@Beebityboo

That didn't take long www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9389207/New-York-Covid-variant-evade-vaccine-triggered-immunity-UK.html

sorry for the daily fail link

It's been known about for a while, so I doubt it poses any more danger to the UK than the P1 or SA variants - i.e. they're all denoted variants of concern and there'll be localised surge testing should any community cases be detected.

Clearly though, this same kind of variant has now popped up independently in 3 population centres all of which possessed a high existing immunity level. It's EXACTLY what people are warning of when they talk of the dangers of allowing the virus to spread in a partially vaccinated population.

I really don't understand any of this. We have 12 cases per 100k in my area.

We have had our 2nd wave.
There will be a 3rd wave possibly next winter.
It might be sooner because of what's happening in Europe.

We just don't know about the effect of lockdown with vaccination and seasonality with vaccination with partial vaccination of some.

Likewise the easing of lockdown in spring with the partial vaccination of some.

We also don't know about the response of a dynamic virus to partial vaccination of a subset of the population during a pandemic. Especially if you increase spread internationally.

Science is used to closed systems where the change in one variable whilst keeping others the same results in objective data.

That is not possible in a fast moving open system where politicised social factors become effective and where people can't wait for clear data because of real or perceived hardship in the here and now.

If you think our government are competent enough to put together orchestrated lies then you are really are nuts. Whining about how a virus behaves really is a bit silly.

Oh, and Bristol was a rent a mob magnet. They love this kind of thing. The daytime equivalent was the nazi salute and yellow star thugs who were in London on Saturday. If only covid were a little more selective..