3rd wave in Europe - do you think we've done enough?

[Laytwir024]

The EU are so far behind on their vaccine programme and there is a bigger anti-vax belief system there. Do you think we've done enough to avoid a third wave?

I am a medic with a science degree, no other special qualifications. I think I understand how this thing transmits. I think we will have another wave (3rd or 4th is semantics). We know R is (was 2 weeks ago) between 0.6-0.8, we know opening schools increases it between 0.4 and 0.6. What we don't know is what impact the lateral flow testing and mask wearing for secondaries will have (0.1-0.2?) or the impact of vaccination (which will mean fewer hospitilisations and deaths we hope). I think opening schools has almost certainly pushed R above 1, rule of 6 on 29th will make little difference. It's the April 12th relaxation I am watching, I think casss will already be rising but BJ will push ahead because of the economy/ furlough etc. I think if he goes futher on the 17th of May and particularly the 21st of June hospitals will start to fill up again in August. If we keep to tier 2 restrictions we might get away with it.

Yes of course opening borders in May will contribute. I am pleased this is a least a discussion in the mainstream media, I was horrified last summer when nobody (except in healthcare and on here) was talking about the risks of opening up.

Errr... I think the UK's third wave is the one that has us currently locked down. Is it me or you who can't count?

?? - we've had three lockdowns, but only two waves (peaking April and Jan)

As ever, Boris has been so focused on remaining popular that he's thrown the doors open

I think that's because he's a Tory and every instinct is to get the economy going again.

Life is a shit sandwich; the more bread you have, the less shit you eat. It's vulgar, I agree.

@XingMing it’s also wrong. You eat exactly the same amount of shit with both sandwiches - the amount of bread is irrelevant.

There is a lot that can be in the UK now we have cases under control to really consider how we are going to avoid a fourth wave. What are we happy to give up, what is essential.

I agree that tier 2 restrictions is probably going to be the safest way to avoid more waves.

The government need to be honest about life getting back to 'normal' in June - and stop right now promising such things. I don't think we can go back to big events in June or mass international travel.
We either choose the Australian model - close the borders - drive the infection down and live 'normally' or we will continue to live with the fear of mutations undoing all the progress of the vaccines. Or we don't and face the future waves that will come as result. I would love a holiday just as much as anyone but we have some hard choices to make.

The vaccine assuming it continues to work with the new variants, will not really fully kick in until the end of the summer, and even then we will still have millions of unvaccinated children.

I would prefer a cautious approach. No big events. Staying outside where possible over the summer. Dining inside in small groups. And no international travel this year. If this year has taught me anything, and I was all for reopening - it has taught me we can't outgun covid. The minute we reopen en masse it will roar right back. A moderate model is needed. Not ambitious, not partying like the 1920s or we will simply see the hospitals flooded again and lockdowns again, and I am not sure the nation could cope with another one.

I’m in favour of monitoring and maintaining the lockdown roadmap as set out currently but am not in favour of international travel being permitted. Sorry to those with family overseas and in tourism but travel generally is non-essential. All the countries who stamped on this early had good track and trace and closed borders. It will be madness for us to have come this far and fall at one the latter hurdles for the sake of the great summer holiday. Schools HAVE to remain open. Businesses have to start opening. You do not have to have 2 weeks in Greece, much as we’d all like to.

Amused by the number of posters wanting to “close the borders” as well. When Trump imposed a travel ban a year ago he was condemned. Now lots of posters on here are calling for the exact same thing!

I tend to feel we need some heavy care around border opening. Very frustrating because I'd like to go abroad this year, but I'd like a normal life more. I have been assuming that we will have red list countries for a good while after "restrictions have been lifted".

Re 2nd vs 3rd wave - the 2nd lockdown in Nov was to try and calm the second wave down but it did nothing really so we're still in it - picture of hospitalisations attached with the blip it caused on the way to the peak of the second wave.

Not ambitious, not partying like the 1920s or we will simply see the hospitals flooded again

@Itsalonghaul Why would we see hospitals flooded again when the vast majority of people have been vaccinated?

@XingMing

Errr... I think the UK's third wave is the one that has us currently locked down. Is it me or you who can't count?

Technically we never suppressed the 2nd wave. So we are on wave 2.5.

I don’t fund it amusing @Dongdingdong lots of people were concerned about borders and thought the govt were too late in doing so last year. Not clear what your point is. Are govt not allowed to change policy based on evidence and prior learnings?

dong Because most people will not have had two doses of the vaccine by the summer. At best, the older generation will be fully vaccinated and the vulnerable, but everyone else will not be fully protected. Even if all adults are vaccinated by mid July - they will still not be fully protected until they have the second dose in mid October. In the meantime covid will continue to spread.

And this is assuming that one of the variants is not resistant to the vaccine. In order to prevent this from happening we need to make sure people travel as little as possible this summer.

You might find it amusing, I do not. Millions of lives are at stake if we get this wrong. We need, just for once, to learn our lessons and become much more realistic. I say that as someone desperate to fly anywhere!
We will give away all of the progress we have made if we do that.

www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(21)00143-2/fulltext

Just leaving this here

Thanks baby that outlines the modelling and confirms the vaccine alone is insufficient to contain outbreak (in other words some restrictions will still be needed) Not forever, but for now certainly.

Honest question - if vaccinating the most vulnerable / those likely to end up in hospital why would we have another overwhelm in hospitals even if we did open up? If positive cases are on the rise, but it’s mild cases treated at home (like cold/flu) then I’m not sure what the problem is? We know we can’t eradicate COVID so we have to learn to live with it.

@XingMing

Do none of you lot read the serious papers, or do you rely on Facebook? The vaccines we are using in the UK are working big time. The main variant across Europe is the Kent version we identified in late Nov/December. The AZ vaccine appears to be effective against the Brazilian variant. Look at the UK statistics. Since December when DM86 had her first jab and mid-Jan when she had the second, the UK has vaccinated almost everyone over 55 who has accepted immunisation, and infection rates and death rates have plummeted. Now call up the same set of stats for France, Germany and Italy... and compare the two side by side. It should tell you what you need to know, factually and numerically, and it's pretty conclusive evidence.

I'm no immunologist, and know FA about virus mutation, but a population that is almost 50% (and rising) vaccinated is much better placed to fight off the fourth/fifth and further waves. Just take the vaccine when you are called for it. Herd immunity works and protects the people who are too weak as well by limiting the transmission vectors.

The problem with other countries not being vaccinated is a mutating virus which brings new vaccinne-resistant variants to the UK.

@XingMing we are not there yet with vaccines but I hope it helps

Well 3 reasons;
a) vaccine is not 100% (none is and coukd never be) so 5-10% of vaccinated population is still suseptible
b)A proportion of low risk individuals do get very sick and need hospital care ( maybe 2-3%) 2% of 29 million is 400,000 that is a huge number
c) Some vunerable people either can't or won't be vaccinated 85%-90% take up is considered good but that leaves 10% unprotected.

@Lumene

It depends what happens with new variants and how effective the vaccine will be, IMO.

This is all there is to say.

We don't know really. The worst thing about all of this is we don't know what's next and we are not in control

@Dongdingdong

Amused by the number of posters wanting to “close the borders” as well. When Trump imposed a travel ban a year ago he was condemned. Now lots of posters on here are calling for the exact same thing!

Trump's travel ban was pretty illogical given it was rife in the country already though

@miimblemomble I agree with everything you said.

Also, there are worrying reports out of China this morning where a health worker has the virus AND had already received his two doses. Hopefully just an anomaly and not a vaccine resistant strain emerging because the world can't close its borders indefinitely.

International travel, regrettably, needs to remain off the table for most and highly tested/quarantined for essential travel.

@GoWalkabout

International travel, regrettably, needs to remain off the table for most and highly tested/quarantined for essential travel.

For how long though? How long can we realistically keep going like this?

@waxonwaxoff0 it may be another year. We can't save everything, sadly. If we can keep the UK going without it then better than nothing right?
Most of my family are abroad btw. I dont want this at all. But I agree we also need to live with this.

@Humphriescushion

I agree @ miim the nationalism , gloating and some of the comments on mumsnet about the eu has been shocking and truly depressing.

Mumsnet has never respected the EU and been waiting for this moment.