3rd wave in Europe - do you think we've done enough?

[Laytwir024]

The EU are so far behind on their vaccine programme and there is a bigger anti-vax belief system there. Do you think we've done enough to avoid a third wave?

I'm hoping our increased number of vaccines have made a big difference, although I know we have some shortfalls coming up.

I think we have already had it.

It depends what happens with new variants and how effective the vaccine will be, IMO.

And whether we can keep South Africa out.
If its a dominate strain in France or nearing that... Do we allow travel between here and France?

Well schools have been open for a couple of weeks and the figures are still looking relatively low so I’m trying to remain hopeful. I know there have been lots of mistakes made but I think the vaccine & slow unlocking make sense. It will never go away but hopefully it will become manageable. I don’t think the slight vaccine delay was unexpected given that people will start needing their second soon.

In truth, I’ve not a bloody clue

The problem is the South African variant seems pretty resistant to natural immunity, and immunity from the vaccines we’re using. If it takes root here we’ll be pushed back so far and locked down until new vaccines are available.
I don’t see how this summer can go well if we relax international travel given it’s 5-10% of the cases in Europe.

Probably enough for now. But not sure about the coming winter.

Most of the countries are suffering now the British variant which we had back in rhe summer.
Im Spanish and most of the cases belong to this variant. Also they’re so far behind the vaccination programme comparing to here that will affect them more. Spain is talking about a 4th one

People appear to be very keen to resume holidaying abroad.

We have lots of lorry cargo from Europe

The somewhat glib 'we're not protected until we're all protected' does have a kernel of truth.

If re-imported this summer, it could go muck up the planned relaxation of restrictions

Something I don't understand - the South Africa wave obviously originated in South Africa, so why aren't their cases high if it is resistant to immunity? They are out of lockdown and their cases are still low.

Honestly, I do. France is up to something like 36k new cases per day and in the midst of a variant regime change, whereas we are still, even with ramping up testing to well over 1m per day and the schoolchildren returning en masse, on a downward trend, unbelievably.

We have immunised 50% of the adult population, the risky half no less, and our move out of lockdown is painfully slow.

I think we'll be fine on that front

@Pleasegivemeyourwisdom

In truth, I’ve not a bloody clue

Yep this

Its expected around October after summer holidays, if we are to get one at all. I suspect we will have a major rise in cases, but if we are all vaccinated the cases will be minor and not need hospitalisation.

I really very much hope so. I’ve a close family member who is a Whitehall medical advisor: there is absolutely an acknowledgment of a potential 4th (we’re in the 3rd) wave but all are hoping beyond hope that the brilliant NHS vaccine rollout is ahead of it.

We had this wave. It started here.

See January.

@Waxonwaxoff0

Something I don't understand - the South Africa wave obviously originated in South Africa, so why aren't their cases high if it is resistant to immunity? They are out of lockdown and their cases are still low.

Partial herd immunity.

It’s not immune to your own immune system if you had it. It potentially evades the immunity generated through current vaccines.

@Doomsdayiscoming thanks, I'm not very clued up on these things!

Do none of you lot read the serious papers, or do you rely on Facebook? The vaccines we are using in the UK are working big time. The main variant across Europe is the Kent version we identified in late Nov/December. The AZ vaccine appears to be effective against the Brazilian variant. Look at the UK statistics. Since December when DM86 had her first jab and mid-Jan when she had the second, the UK has vaccinated almost everyone over 55 who has accepted immunisation, and infection rates and death rates have plummeted. Now call up the same set of stats for France, Germany and Italy... and compare the two side by side. It should tell you what you need to know, factually and numerically, and it's pretty conclusive evidence.

I'm no immunologist, and know FA about virus mutation, but a population that is almost 50% (and rising) vaccinated is much better placed to fight off the fourth/fifth and further waves. Just take the vaccine when you are called for it. Herd immunity works and protects the people who are too weak as well by limiting the transmission vectors.

Yes I think we have done enough. More than the countries who don't trust the AZ vaccination. For whatever reason.

Is there any need XingMing?

By done enough? I presume you mean “we had this new variant that we identified as becoming dominant in late November (or earlier) and we decided to have Christmas anyway, because that’s what Jesus would have wanted, and then let it rip through the country”.

France’s death per million people is far lower than the U.K.

And even with their current wave, it will stay that way.

I expect international travel will be important for the Government, then another lockdown and no education for the children due to that, if our vaccines do not work. The news said that travel to Greece was a big cause of rise in cases, yet current plans are to allow travel and therefore businesses and education mat suffer due to rights of people to travel.

No, because a significant proportion of the infections in Europe are the South African variant, not the Kent variant (up to 10% according to the news article below).

www.theguardian.com/world/2021/mar/19/south-african-covid-variant-uk-neil-ferguson

Our borders are pretty wide open to admit the SA variant from Europe and the government doesn't seem to care.

We have survived a couple of months with drastically reduced travel and could continue and amplify these restrictions if the government was inclined to do so.

The government is is IMO out of touch with what the public want. Yes, most want an end to internal restrictions but would be happy to have even more external restrictions if that meant that life within the UK could return to come normality.