3rd wave in Europe - do you think we've done enough?

[Laytwir024]

The EU are so far behind on their vaccine programme and there is a bigger anti-vax belief system there. Do you think we've done enough to avoid a third wave?

[quote bumbleymummy]@BoomBoomsCousin Mutations aren’t always a bad thing.[/quote]
Not if it's passing through the population anyway, because most often viruses mutate into less deadly forms.

However, when the plan is to protect people through vaccination and we already have highly effective vaccines then mutations aren't beneficial as they risk making the vaccination process less effective.

@Laytwir024

But only one dose.

But hopefully you're right.

Two doses would be better (especially for lowering transmission), but a single dose is still great protection against hospitalisation and death. Recent result from Israel on the Pfizer vaccine show the large majority of protection comes with the first dose.

Speaking to my doctor/consultant today at the hospital he said there’s no guarantee they actually work or will make a difference.

Right

No difference to... hospital admissions?

@BoomBoomsCousin Unless it mutates to something less virulent. In that case, it wouldn't matter if the vaccine was as effective or not.

[quote bumbleymummy]@BoomBoomsCousin Unless it mutates to something less virulent. In that case, it wouldn't matter if the vaccine was as effective or not.[/quote]
It will already have probably mutated quite a few times into forms that aren't virulent, but we don't notice those because they don't get passed on. The less virulent mutations don't normally dominate. We would need it to mutate into a less virulent version and at the same time be evolutionarily fitter than more virulent versions.

But, of course, we can't pick and choose the good mutations and stop the bad ones. While it's mutating it increases our risk.

Where I think we may have done a lot is that with the vaccination programme we have turned it into an unpleasant illness more than a fatal one. It may not get us able to go to many places outside the UK this summer, but it will allow our non-holiday life to resume to a large extent.

@poshme

Speaking to my doctor/consultant today at the hospital he said there’s no guarantee they actually work or will make a difference.

Right

No difference to... hospital admissions?

I like you.

Speaking to my doctor/consultant today at the hospital he said there’s no guarantee they actually work or will make a difference.

My doctor (ENT and very experienced - also very honest and open minded) did really say this. I’ve seen him every 6 months for 20 years now.

He’s been vaccinated twice and referring to that said “It may not work

• but at least I’ve done my best” or words to that effect.

Maybe he just meant the vaccine might not work on him.

Whoa @poshme that's quite a graph

People who think they're going on holiday outside the UK: Perhaps not: Essential travel only. Holidays don't count.

www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-declaration-form-for-international-travel

@CuthbertDibbleandGrubb

Where I think we may have done a lot is that with the vaccination programme we have turned it into an unpleasant illness more than a fatal one. It may not get us able to go to many places outside the UK this summer, but it will allow our non-holiday life to resume to a large extent.

It won't get us *anywhere outside the UK unless things change considerably. See here: www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-declaration-form-for-international-travel

@CuthbertDibbleandGrubb

Where I think we may have done a lot is that with the vaccination programme we have turned it into an unpleasant illness more than a fatal one. It may not get us able to go to many places outside the UK this summer, but it will allow our non-holiday life to resume to a large extent.

The vaccination just means it hopefully won't kill us. We'll be distancing and masking for some time yet. Months or years, not weeks. An airborne respiratory virus that mutates quickly. Humanity has fucked mother earth over for some decades. We're gettign some back.

Only those travelling for essential purposes are to be allowed out of the UK until at least June. Last year. some EU countries only allowed "essential" travel for some months, so this is no different. Except the UK govt is telling UK peeps they cannot go.
www.gov.uk/guidance/coronavirus-covid-19-declaration-form-for-international-travel

Whoa @poshme that's quite a graph
Don't forget though that we have been in lockdown as well which should have had an effect on hospital admissions too.

I think of it like this. If I had a problem and I deployed two potential solutions at the same time, how would I know which one did what?

@poshme

Speaking to my doctor/consultant today at the hospital he said there’s no guarantee they actually work or will make a difference.

Right

No difference to... hospital admissions?

Of course vaccines have helped enormously but that graph includes lockdown impact too.

I don't know. I'm not Chris Witty!

Humanity has fucked mother earth over for some decades. We're gettign some back.

I concur with this completely.

We'll be distancing and masking for some time yet. Months or years, not weeks

No thanks.

@kittensarecute

We'll be distancing and masking for some time yet. Months or years, not weeks

No thanks.

It's not an offer. It's an educated guess, based on the evolution of the virus, and the behaviour of humanity in general. The longer that some people refuse to engage, the longer we'll all (in general) have to engage.

@Dustyboots

Speaking to my doctor/consultant today at the hospital he said there’s no guarantee they actually work or will make a difference.

My doctor (ENT and very experienced - also very honest and open minded) did really say this. I’ve seen him every 6 months for 20 years now.

He’s been vaccinated twice and referring to that said “It may not work

• but at least I’ve done my best” or words to that effect.

Maybe he just meant the vaccine might not work on him.

My GP spoke with me last week, before I went for my vaccine. He told me it wouldn't prevent one from getting CV, nor from spreading it, but that the vaccine would *hopefully prevent CV from killing anyone who does contract it.

I trust his judgement (along with his medical degree and decades of clinical experience) rather more than someone off t'internet lacking said ejumkayshun.

We'll be distancing and masking for some time yet. Months or years, not weeks.

SD costs some sectors a lot so I doubt it. What job do you do that it doesn’t impact you?

Months or years is a good hedging of bets though, a great arse covering trick when making a prediction. So any time from the earliest possible time to any possible future time? Do you do palm readings too?

I trust his judgement (along with his medical degree and decades of clinical experience) rather more than someone off t'internet lacking said ejumkayshun.

Depends how up to date with reading current research papers on the subject your GP is. They're only human too.

@FourTeaFallOut

Months or years is a good hedging of bets though, a great arse covering trick when making a prediction. So any time from the earliest possible time to any possible future time? Do you do palm readings too?

Not arse-covering at all. It's an educated guess based on observations noted. I don't see a viable way out of the barrier methods mentioned. Especially not when so many people claim exemption for measures against an airborne and mutating virus..

No, I *don't do palm readings. I don't engage in woo-woo. Science, and empirical evidence, yes. Woo-woo, and snake-oil sales men/quackery, no.

Over 50s are getting their first vaccine jabs as I write. Until everyone has had both jabs, we cannot say that everyone has been vaccinated. Those receiving a first jab now are not due to receive their second until June.

That still leaves millions to be vaccinated.

3 month wait between jabs.

Virus continuing to mutate.

So yes, it'll be moths, and that could easily stretch into years. It just depends on exactly how people choose to behave in the meantime.

Those refusing to mask/SD are just going to prolong this for everyone else.

It's not an educated guess to say months or years. I mean, you have excluded weeks and decades. You are on solid ground.

Yeah, no one is going to social distance for years. How will single people start new relationships?

Absolutely no one will comply with years of social distancing.