3rd wave in Europe - do you think we've done enough?

[Laytwir024]

The EU are so far behind on their vaccine programme and there is a bigger anti-vax belief system there. Do you think we've done enough to avoid a third wave?

Mumsnet has never respected the EU and been waiting for this moment.

This is silly.

Anyway I bet if you looked at remainer vote / threads there were more than the opposite.

Overall mood re travel in summer seems to be cooling - via radio commentary.

I suppose they need to see what is going on with variants and vaccines.

@babyyodaxmas

Well 3 reasons; a) vaccine is not 100% (none is and coukd never be) so 5-10% of vaccinated population is still suseptible b)A proportion of low risk individuals do get very sick and need hospital care ( maybe 2-3%) 2% of 29 million is 400,000 that is a huge number c) Some vunerable people either can't or won't be vaccinated 85%-90% take up is considered good but that leaves 10% unprotected.

You’re not factoring in immunity from natural infection. Not everyone who is unvaccinated is still vulnerable to infection.

I think the government is now finally after a year taking this seriously and we have been doing well with the vaccine programme

I can’t believe how the French government have been behaving. I’d be furious if I lived there. Twatting around destroying public confidence in the vaccine and now in this mess and having to lock down again

I think we might get a large number of infections in winter but not bad enough to lock down, even if there are thousands of deaths that’ll be like a bad flu season and just time to live with it. Perhaps the government should be using the summer to try and increase NHS capacity so it’s not on the edge of being unable to cope as it was every winter even before Covid.

From what I can work out, most EU countries have given a first dose to around 10% of the population. People pick on France but it's progress is pretty average.

The UK is on 26million first doses / population 67million so around 35%?

It's not terrible! Comparatively slower of course but i had assumed it would be in the low single figures based on the way people have been talking. I'm listening to LBC live and he's talking in hyperbole about how France is killing its people with the slow rollout, and I've been told on MN that (as a resident of Spain) I am felt sorry for.

I'm having my AZ next week and am optimistic for the (at least late) summer!

I don’t fund it amusing @Dongdingdong lots of people were concerned about borders and thought the govt were too late in doing so last year. Not clear what your point is. Are govt not allowed to change policy based on evidence and prior learnings?

@KeepWashingThoseHands where did I say that the government aren’t allowed to change policy?

And @Itsalonghaul - judging by your comment, you’re another poster who clearly doesn’t understand the difference in protection levels offered by one dose of the vaccine versus two.

@QuentinInQuarantino

From what I can work out, most EU countries have given a first dose to around 10% of the population. People pick on France but it's progress is pretty average.

The UK is on 26million first doses / population 67million so around 35%?

It's not terrible! Comparatively slower of course but i had assumed it would be in the low single figures based on the way people have been talking. I'm listening to LBC live and he's talking in hyperbole about how France is killing its people with the slow rollout, and I've been told on MN that (as a resident of Spain) I am felt sorry for.

I'm having my AZ next week and am optimistic for the (at least late) summer!

European countries have tended to do more second does as well, as they stuck to the three week period (rightly or wrongly). They'll have a lot of the most vulnerable (80+) fully vaccinated at least.

However, there's scant chance of the majority of the working age population being vaccinated this summer, therefore the idea of millions of Brits trotting off to Spain, France and Italy again June-August is foolish.

Mumsnet has never respected the EU and been waiting for this moment.

WTAF? If you did a poll of remain vs leave on MN I’d say it would be 90% remain. Leave voters have been subject to a barrage of abuse and nastiness on this forum for years. Then the vaccine fiasco happened and the “EU can do no wrong” brigade went very quiet.

However, there's scant chance of the majority of the working age population being vaccinated this summer, therefore the idea of millions of Brits trotting off to Spain, France and Italy again June-August is foolish.*
*
Yes even in their optimistic projections the EU said 70% by the end of the summer. It was really hard to find like for like statistics due to the one dose/two dose thing, and the uk talking about percentage of adult population and other countries just percentage of population! You can make things sound much better or much worse depending which you choose!

But if the Brits are vaccinated they'll be able to travel won't they? I know Spain has been a big supporter of vaccine passports.

@Dongdingdong

Mumsnet has never respected the EU and been waiting for this moment.

WTAF? If you did a poll of remain vs leave on MN I’d say it would be 90% remain. Leave voters have been subject to a barrage of abuse and nastiness on this forum for years. Then the vaccine fiasco happened and the “EU can do no wrong” brigade went very quiet.

Yes agree with this and I voted remain. Although the EU do no wrong brigade are still around

@QuentinInQuarantino

However, there's scant chance of the majority of the working age population being vaccinated this summer, therefore the idea of millions of Brits trotting off to Spain, France and Italy again June-August is foolish.* * Yes even in their optimistic projections the EU said 70% by the end of the summer. It was really hard to find like for like statistics due to the one dose/two dose thing, and the uk talking about percentage of adult population and other countries just percentage of population! You can make things sound much better or much worse depending which you choose!

But if the Brits are vaccinated they'll be able to travel won't they? I know Spain has been a big supporter of vaccine passports.

I think in theory yes but the new variants in EU (France at least) may be the limiting factor for travel.

European countries have tended to do more second does as well, as they stuck to the three week period (rightly or wrongly). They'll have a lot of the most vulnerable (80+) fully vaccinated at least.

But the AZ vaccine is more effective when the gap between first and second doses is delayed. They’d be far better off getting the jab into more people quickly, as the UK has done.

Dongdingdong

Mumsnet has never respected the EU and been waiting for this moment.

Crap, we love the EU.....or did 🤦

@QuentinInQuarantino whereabouts in Spain do you live and how old are you, if you don’t mind me asking? I have a family member in Spain who’s in her 70s and she’s still heard nothing

"I think in theory yes but the new variants in EU (France at least) may be the limiting factor for travel."

What do we know about those variants so far? What's their MO? Is there a concern they may be vaccine resistant?

Mumsnet was/is the most ardent remain forum in the world! Devoted to the EU for decades and would hear not a word against it. Most of us voted remain and that just tells you everything you need to know about the EU, that even their biggest champions have had enough

The UK is on 40 admistered doses per 100 people, France, Germany and Italy are on around 12.

If we look at first doses the UK is about 38%, France, Germany and Italy are on around 8%

@QuentinInQuarantino

"I think in theory yes but the new variants in EU (France at least) may be the limiting factor for travel."

What do we know about those variants so far? What's their MO? Is there a concern they may be vaccine resistant?

I don’t think we know yet, very early days for so called Brittany variant. But also SA more prevalent in Europe?

Commentator right now on R4 talking about variants being the issue for travel. But it isn’t really known yet

People pick on France but it's progress is pretty average.

Yep, there's a lot of confusion around with "EU" being conflated with [insert European country of your choice], and there's a lot a mischief making going on about numbers of unused vaccines with no thought being given to population size and dose rates - I'll bet there are X hundred thousand unused vaccinnes in the UK at 0900 this Am..for very good reason..

As for quarantine (managed i.e. in a hotel), even for essential workers. Simply putting Europe on the red list and quarantining everybody potentially stuffs up the supply chain, and that would include the supply of vaccines originating in plants in Europe and then road or air freighted into the UK.

@buttery81 I'm in my early 30s but I'm a teacher. I'm in one of the slower regions but I believe all regions are doing public facing workers: education (except HE) police, dentistry, physios etc with the AZ, and working on the 80+ at the moment with Pfizer and Moderna. I heard about it the day before (and then it was postponed for a week due to the recent faffing) so you don't get much notice!

The AZ delay won't affect your family member because they weren't receiving it anyway so they'll be called once the 80+ are done. Hope that helps a little x

I think if UK keep vaccinating at high levels, have boosters for the key variants and vaccines for children, and roll them all out by end of October - then we'll be fine. There will be pockets of less vaccinated areas who who have outbreaks though.

There is a bigger current issue in the supply chain disruption that's just looming from the current EU country choices of more stringent lockdowns or a lot more deaths.

@EasterIssland

Most of the countries are suffering now the British variant which we had back in rhe summer. Im Spanish and most of the cases belong to this variant. Also they’re so far behind the vaccination programme comparing to here that will affect them more. Spain is talking about a 4th one

European countries are suffering from the Kent variant which started in the uk in the autumn causing the huge rise in cases in the south east in December and January. Therefore they are behind us in this wave in my opinion. However I think there is a chance that as the uk opens up this variant may take off again in the uk particularly in areas it didn’t get to in December. However there should be fewer hospitalisations due to vaccination. The South African variant might also start spreading in the uk when things open up as I doubt test and trace have found all the cases and it is already here. I fear it will be used as an excuse to delay foreign travel opening up.

@Dongdingdong

European countries have tended to do more second does as well, as they stuck to the three week period (rightly or wrongly). They'll have a lot of the most vulnerable (80+) fully vaccinated at least.

But the AZ vaccine is more effective when the gap between first and second doses is delayed. They’d be far better off getting the jab into more people quickly, as the UK has done.

This is why, in Spain at least, they're doing the AZ to all the public facing professionals - they can move faster as they don't have to save them second dose. The elderly are getting Moderna/Pfizer.

This has been quite a recent change here and so I'm hoping it leads to a big uptick in rollout speed. (If AZ deliver the Q2 doses and the Johnson ones arrive).

I have a family member in Belgium, late 70s, serious health issues, not a sniff of a vaccine has been offered. They are gobsmacked at how quickly we are vaccinating.