Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Random musings....

Oxford & Cambridge are likely to have higher resident population than registered, but I don't think that explains it, as vaccine data is linked to GP practice so will show wherever person is registered with their GP.

There may be people registered with local GPS who are currently overseas, not sure if numbers would be significant though.

Vaccine hesitancy likely to be an issue.

At the hub I work at We have found as we have reached younger age groups that appointments outside working hours are important - we have had spare appts early afternoon for a couple of weeks and then been busy from 5 pm onwards.

As I mentioned yesterday, people who won't be paid for sick time are more worried about potential side effects.

Areas that are mostly wealthy often have worse services for those who are deprived than areas that are mostly deprived...

Cities sometimes have a higher number of small GP practices. Not sure if relevant to ox & camb, but smaller practices tend to have fewer admin resources to run patient searches to update records & call / recall patients.

Finally - and again I don't see that it would be significant numbers - but science parks will employ people who have had early access to vaccine through trials. Don't know how this is counted in records though.

the trials is an interesting point actually. I know a number of people who volunteered for trials. i think they mostly found out which they'd had when it came time for their actual vaccine (they were mostly health care workers, so got it early) but I don't know how/if that would be counted. I wonder also if the skew towards much younger people in the practice and fewer older people would mean that smaller variations in the uptake would end up making the percentages look worse, even if it really only means a small number of people not taking them. The percentages aren't wildly different from each other, really, even from the top areas to the bottom ones.

Just reported that last comment! Not meant for here

In terms of population estimates, this is from the notes section of the weekly NHS vaccinations file, and the rationale for why I've been using the NIMS figures (which of course being live can change each week, not hugely of course).

Population/cohort size (denominator) definitions

Alongside these data, the publication includes estimates of cohort sizes, which can be used as a denominator to calculate approximate vaccination uptake percentages. Two denominators are used:

1. Office for National Statistics (ONS) 2019 mid-year population estimates are provided as the official statistics and the best publicly available population estimates. This publication uses ONS denominators for National, Regional, Integrated Care System (ICS) / Sustainability Transformation Partnership (STP) and Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) geographies. These estimates are consistent with the UK COVID-19 vaccines deployment plan and therefore provide a reference point on progress. They are the most accurate estimates available at national level, however they are less robust at smaller areas and are subject to a degree of uncertainty as they are 2019 estimates based on the 2011 Census.

2. National Immunisation Management System (NIMS) denominators are also provided for Middle Layer Super Output Area (MSOA), Lower Tier Local Authority (LTLA) and Constituencies. NIMS denominators facilitate management of the vaccination programme at more granular levels and should be used when calculating vaccine coverage for public health purposes. NIMS denominators may provide an overcount if individuals are no longer resident in England, but may also be subject to some undercounting as they currently do not include individuals without an NHS number. Coverage can be viewed as being ‘at least’ the figures presented using the NIMS denominator. The NIMS denominators are based on the resident population and therefore people will be counted in the denominators if they live in England, even if their GP practice is in Wales or Scotland and they receive their vaccination outside of England. Therefore, when looking at lower levels of geography, areas near the borders may appear to have lower vaccine uptake rates than other areas of England.

An interesting exercise is to compare the ONS and NIMS figures at LA level - Oxbridge standout again. I do wonder whether Sir Humphrey was on to something

Census 2021 data is someway off still - as the mop ups continue into May for starters.

@PurpleWh1teGreen

Just reported that last comment! Not meant for here

I thought you'd just extended your random (but very relevant) musings into something truly random.

Thanks for that @boys3. Cambridge and Oxford are the types of places where low skilled jobs in hospitality have been overwhelmingly filled by migrant workers, mostly European (Poles/Romanians) in recent years. The cities' economies will have been badly hit with the absence of both students and foreign tourists (and not much pick up of domestic tourists, who tend to prefer countryside and seaside). We know that there was a large exodus of foreign born workers (who aren't all young) over the last year, which is likely to have been disproportionately from areas such as these, which could mean the population figures are out. This could also affect London - compounding the low uptake from BME populations there.

And wouldn't hold your breath for 2021 census figures to come to our rescue - I remember it being 2013 before we got even the headline tables from 2011, so doubt they'll be much faster this time round.

The percentages aren't wildly different from each other, really, even from the top areas to the bottom ones.

I'd agree there is a lot of bunching but the gap between min and max, and 10th and 90th percentile points are not small - although the latter for several older bands (70+) are only between 7 and 8 percentage points. I'd expect the 50s gap to close a bit over the coming weeks.

Very random musings boys

So from your last update, it seems they are using resident population rather than registered GP population then. I suppose this could be more relevant in Oxford, Camb and other uni towns with short terms, but not necessarily in over 50s.

Neil Ferguson's comments lead me to wonder whether they will pause the AstraZeneca rollout for younger people:
inews.co.uk/news/health/neil-ferguson-blood-clots-astrazeneca-raises-questions-vaccine-young-people-942691

yes, that's true, the min-max difference is quite a bit bigger than I'd appreciated at first, as I was mostly looking at those nearish the top and nearish the bottom. I was comparing Oxbridge to some of the others, and thinking that although it's low, it's not necessarily outstandingly low, and that relatively small differences in vaccinated numbers of older people might make enough difference in % terms if there were fewer of them in that age group overall.

[quote lonelyplanet]Neil Ferguson's comments lead me to wonder whether they will pause the AstraZeneca rollout for younger people:
inews.co.uk/news/health/neil-ferguson-blood-clots-astrazeneca-raises-questions-vaccine-young-people-942691[/quote]
Is there any credible data yet from Sinovac or Sputnik? I’m wondering if this is going to be seen with all vaccines of this type and whether MRNA is going to be the preference going forward?

I could be massively oversimplifying the issue but I’d be interested in comparisons with other adenovirus vaccines.

2762 / 26 which includes some catch-up for Wales and NI for the days they didn't report (if I'm reading the dashboard correctly?)

Pretty good numbers, even if they may be all over the place for the next few days.

specimen dates for England. With school Easter holidays and the long bank holiday weekend I’m not sure there is much point as the downward trajectory has been pretty consistent since last Monday.

Suffice to say 16,532 cases so far by spec date for w/c 29th March. At this time last week there were 26,537 for w/c 22nd March. Just under a 38% drop.

Just 4 LAs now over 100 cases per 100,000; Corby at 145, then Doncaster 113, Barnsley 110 and Wakefield 108

26 LAs between 70 and 100 per 100,000, all bar one, Mansfield, showing a decline as compared to the prior 7 days.

39 LAs between 50 and 69.

27 between 40 and 49

48 between 30 and 49

70 between 20 and 29

87 between 10 and 19; leaving therefore

14 less than 10 per 100,000

A quick few graphs on case rate by core age groups (as largely since schools fully re-opened the 10-19 rate skyrocketed, and all the rest continued to drop).

This therefore just shows the:

0 to 9 years

10 to 19 years

20 to 59 years

Aged 60+; taking the cut off here, although did think about going from the 50 year olds upwards.

It uses the dashboard data so is the 7 day cases to 31st March; numbers will have dropped further since then as the impact of school hols start to kick in.

Sorted by councils in alphabetical order.

The first set of columns show the rate per 100,000 for the four age bands and overall; then the rank highest to lowest for each of these. Colour code is quintile based - red, highest 20%; orange; next 20%; then pink; light blue and finally green for the lowest 20%.

First set cover:

Adur to Brent

Brentwood to Corby

Cornwall to Enfield

followed by

Epping Forest to Herefordshire

Hertsmere to Manchester

Mansfield to Oadby & Wigston

and then

Oldham to Selby

Sevenoaks to Stockport

Stockton to Wandsworth

finally

Warrington to York

Are we expecting a mega update on the dashboard today? Or will it take a week for them to get over the bank holiday?

@Doomsdayiscoming

Are we expecting a mega update on the dashboard today? Or will it take a week for them to get over the bank holiday?

I don't think we're expecting a big backlog of cases to update, unless of course people avoided getting tested over Easter and are all queuing up at the drive through sites today (which would give us an uptick in cases in a couple of days time). Hospital admissions are due an update for about the last 5 days. Likely to be a bit of a spike in reported deaths as they have been very low recently.

We drove past both a test site and a vaccination site today (not intentionally), both very very quiet.

@MRex

We drove past both a test site and a vaccination site today (not intentionally), both very very quiet.

One of my kids was in one yesterday. He said there were about a dozen staff standing about, no one else getting tested.

Thanks boys3, very interesting and encouraging figures.

@Firefliess

Yeah I’m most interested in hospital data.

U.K. wide in hospital could be due a mega fall. Or it could be few patients were discharged over the weekend.

Guess we’ll find out soon.