Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

This article says 5-10% of cases in France are the SA strain. And the Kent strain is now dominant there. www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/europe/952335/how-dangerous-is-south-africa-covid-spread-europe
That's 5-10% of a lot of cases.

That's 2,500-5,000 cases, quite significant.

@MRex

That's 2,500-5,000 cases, quite significant.

Yes and that's every day.

Daahboard is updated but no figures from Wales today. Will be a bit of a correction next weeks as various countries aren't reporting everyday.

3402 / 52

For Wales can use last Friday as a proxy, 152 cases.
Very happy with that!

Was 6187 cases last Friday, so a decent drop!

numbers looking very positive today though they might be skewed by less children taking LFTs (though obviously those LFTs are skewing the numbers in the first place). Probably not directly comparable with last friday.

Vg article saying how well things are going in Israel, who are a few weeks/months ahead of us in terms of the vaccine. Everything is open. www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/02/really-good-place-israel-nearing-covid-endgame

Yes, there were fewer LFD cases than in last Friday’s results - 651 today compared to c1,300 positive for this time last week (England).
But even adjusting for that there is a very good drop in reported cases.

And reported cases down again in Trafford for the 4th day running, hope we will see the weekly rates back on their way down again in the next few days

Couldn’t see that anyone had posted the ONS infection survey yet
A decrease since the previous week in England of about 10% (163k to 148k)
An increase in primary aged children though from 0.4 to 0.6.
And some regional differences with northern regions flat, decreases in south east and west

www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/01april2021

The ONS survey is extremely good though, a few weeks of schools open, enough for multiple cycles of infection so plenty of time to see an increase if schools alone opening drove it, but it resuming down after the previous weeks flat/up is very positive.

confidence probably says broadly flat, but tbh, I'm not sure we're going to get much more than broadly flat anyway, nor necessarily want it, the zero covid push of last spring/summer was a waste.

I'm not sure that between 2 to 3 weeks is enough to see multiple cycles. It does look positive though. Of course we idealy want more than broadly flat. What a strange thing to say.

Cases were doubling in 3-4 days in the original outbreak, that means with an R0 of only around 3.5, we must have 2-3 cycles every 14 days, so it's 3-4 at least. I would also suspect that the cycle time has reduced - since more cases are being caught and people are isolating with symptoms so it's more pre-symptomatic spread rather than later, but it may not be, we know it can't be that many less cycles though as people aren't infectious after 10 days

Of course we idealy want more than broadly flat. What a strange thing to say

We do not have any vaccines which remotely come close to sufficiently effective to eliminate it, as the CMO has said, it's a virus we'll need to live with.

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7201952/

Has 4 days Tianjin, 5.2 for Singapore for the generation interval, and yes pre-symptomatic spread more common in Tianjin, so probably yes interval lower the more you pick up.

I think flat after school re-opening is very positive. It means R will start going down as more people get vaccinated and more immunity kicks in. Even now we are only seeing full impact of vaccination from 3 weeks ago. The trend should keep improving.

Anyone else feels they should introduce step 2 within the second phase? Say, from 3rd of May (so 3 weeks after 12th of April) you can form a bubble with another household and meet inside, 10 people outdoors/3 households, and a pub meal indoors for same household only. Instead if going from 6 to 30 people overnight from 17th of May. All numbers are going to be so low by then a lot of people won't care about rules anymore anyway.

Personally while there is the still the rule of children having to self isolate and therefore having to be homeschooled, then no I won’t want to mix with people indoors. Our primary has already had 5 classes having to close in the 4 weeks since they returned to school and the case rates in our area were supposedly very low before then (ie borough was 40/100,000, MSOA was 0-2...)

@CarrotPuff

Anyone else feels they should introduce step 2 within the second phase? Say, from 3rd of May (so 3 weeks after 12th of April) you can form a bubble with another household and meet inside, 10 people outdoors/3 households, and a pub meal indoors for same household only. Instead if going from 6 to 30 people overnight from 17th of May. All numbers are going to be so low by then a lot of people won't care about rules anymore anyway.

I’m not sure of the specifics but anything remotely medical should be back to completely normal by 12th April, in my opinion.

GPS, hospital clinics, etc should be operating completely as they were pre-covid. Actually, they should be in overdrive.

By 17th May at current rates there will be under 500 people in hospital with Covid. Completely unacceptable to postpone any sort of treatment/diagnosis for anything else.

Not sure NHS staff quite feel up to overdrive ATM...

I agree that the NHS badly needs to start catching up on the backlog. But I know from friends who work in hospitals that the problems from Covid aren't just about beds being taken up by Covid patients. It's also because of the infection control measures they have put in place to try to stop spread in hospitals - it's reduced ward capacity, means they lose time in operating theatres with extra cleaning between patients, and staff take longer for everything because of changing into new PPE between each patient. These things seem unlikely to go away anytime fast to me, suggesting we need significant investment in the NHS for the next few years to help it cope.

Based on the most recent detailed NHS weekly vaccinations summary file published 1st April and using the NIMS population estimates percentage vaccinated by age band for each council in England.

Broken down by region and sorted by highest percentage of all aged 50+ vaccinated, with the final column showing relative placement as compared with all 314 Councils for which data is provided.

Starting with North West and North East

South East

South West

I work in NHS and we're very, very far from being back to normal on 12/04. The lack of forward planning is actually quite astonishing, especially for someone who's worked in private sector before. We still have to wear masks at all times/SD even though 95% of staff have had 2 vaccines already. And we still need to do LFTs twice a week. I would love to know how many positives we've had since January.

London