Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Yes, I agree with all of that boys. Was just trying to draw a picture of Corby and Peterborough really. I think you are right that most of the more itinerant workers are young.

According to East Northants press, Corby has been struggling to play catch up , having been one of the last areas where the vaccine was rolled out. They have opened another vaccine centre to try to ease backlog.

Some low numbers today.

Thanks @boys3, brilliant analysis, as always. As Index of Multiple Deprivation stats are calculated at the MSOA level it would be great to look at these correlations in more fine-grained detail. Does anyone know if the vaccine take up data is available at lower levels than Local Authority level?

They must be because our local newspaper (Manchester evening news) did an interactive map a couple of weeks ago by MSOA. It might be that the data is only published monthly though. I’ll see if I can find it and if it gives the source

Actually MSOA are in the weekly publication - see link and scroll down to the spreadsheets for each week, MSOA tab
www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/

@alreadytaken

J&J is a single dose vaccine. Offer it to lorry drivers and see who takes it up - some may be happy to take a day off/ their employers may agree. But how common are side effects from j&j anyway?

It's an adenovirus vector with very similar side effects to Oxford astrazeneca by the looks of the trial info.

@NotN0wBernard

Thanks *@boys3*, brilliant analysis, as always. As Index of Multiple Deprivation stats are calculated at the MSOA level it would be great to look at these correlations in more fine-grained detail. Does anyone know if the vaccine take up data is available at lower levels than Local Authority level?

as ceeveebee says vaccination numbers at MSOA level are a specific tab in the weekly NHS report; and the same report also includes age banded MSOA populations for both NIMS and ONS population estimates. So using the former take up at MSOA is easily calculated for each age band, and overall. MNHQ need to allow pdf uploads

however deprivation is at LSOA level, rather than MSOA. Whilst deprivation is aggregated up to council level, I've not seen it at MSOA level - which would be the ideal thing. Whilst it is simple enough to identify which LSOAs sit within each MSOA that's about as far as it goes. If every LSOA is in the same or a very similar deprivation decile that would be great but when you start to get a wider range within a MSOA things start to get difficult.

No more than speculation, but gig economy could be relevant to those not wishing to take time off work due to side effects.

Yes @PurpleWh1teGreen but that’s of little relevance yet because we’re not trying to vaccinate the main age group involved in the gig economy currently.

@boys3 LSOAs are all roughly the same size though (give or take) so you could potentially create an average figure for the MSOA by taking a simple average. You'd want to use the score though, rather than the ranking. And then see how that correlates with vaccine uptake. Would be a little crude but would give you an idea. I'm not sure the LSOA data is all that great though currently - a lot of small area data comes from the census - and we're now 10 years out of date with that.

What's the denominator for vaccine uptake btw? Is it population estimates? Or people registered with GPs? If the latter, the rates may all be a little lower than claimed because of unregistered people - disproportionately young and BME groups, eg migrants without a legal right to be here. But population estimates may not be very good either at present!

Just a quick thought with 60 or so posts before this thread is full.

Are there any useful new links people think should be added to the opening post? Genomic sequencing data for example?

Much to my embarrassment I've noticed looking back that the copy and paste had some links not working so I have a hopefully corrected version ready.

So anything new post asap and whether it is me or someone else who starts the next thread these can be added.

@boys3 - if you wanted to, you could map LSOA to MSOA using this: geoportal.statistics.gov.uk/datasets/fe6c55f0924b4734adf1cf7104a0173e_0.
Deprivation stats are here by MSOA: geoportal.statistics.gov.uk/datasets/3db665d50b1441bc82bb1fee74ccc95a_0.
I thought footprints had it at MSOA as an option, but it's not coming back as a result, I'll search a bit more.

May I suggest adding the ECDC reports and key links? There's a lot more data there now and we are all looking at EU figures with deep interest these days.

Maybe explicitly do the vax stuff too? Covidvax.com, ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

The public health profiles here have some interesting data.

An example would be an area that doesn't necessarily score as high for multiple deprivation, but has a high rate of cardiovascular death below age 75.

fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles

@boys3 - is File 7 any good? www.gov.uk/government/statistics/english-indices-of-deprivation-2019

Sorry, not to do with the recent chat (appreciated though, all!) but this was an interesting article in the Graun about relatively low all-cause death data. It's probably not much we don't already know/have guessed but worth a read anyway.
www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/apr/04/how-is-it-possible-that-the-number-of-deaths-is-now-so-low

[quote Firefliess]@boys3 LSOAs are all roughly the same size though (give or take) so you could potentially create an average figure for the MSOA by taking a simple average. You'd want to use the score though, rather than the ranking. And then see how that correlates with vaccine uptake. Would be a little crude but would give you an idea. I'm not sure the LSOA data is all that great though currently - a lot of small area data comes from the census - and we're now 10 years out of date with that.

What's the denominator for vaccine uptake btw? Is it population estimates? Or people registered with GPs? If the latter, the rates may all be a little lower than claimed because of unregistered people - disproportionately young and BME groups, eg migrants without a legal right to be here. But population estimates may not be very good either at present![/quote]
agree the simple average of the score for each LSOA within an MSOA is the easiest approach.

As such, and still for take up for all aged 50+,

• a graph for all 6791 MSOAs
• a graph for London
• a graph for the East Midlands

Thanks boys3! The relationship does seem stronger at that level, especially the areas with very high uptake which are pretty much all non-deprived. The areas with the lowest uptake are more mixed, suggesting there may be a range of reasons for this - possibly slow roll out in some areas?

@firefliess I think using the overall aged 50+ percentage uptake may hide some of the nuances; especially as April 15th is I think still the target date for getting all over 50s offered and jabbing all those who want it.

I will aim tomorrow if possible to maybe look at 10 year age bands, so 50-59; 60-69 etc to see if the picture changes.

I've attached ; in deference to the regular MN obsession with Oxbridge on the higher ed board ; a graph just for Oxford and Cambridge

@boys3. Not much correlation at all there - suggesting the reasons for low uptake in Cambridge and Oxford is something other than deprivation. Non-deprived non-uk born people getting their news and vaccine hesitancy from other countries maybe? The population numbers cities with a high proportion of students may also be wrong currently, as many are back home with parents (especially Oxbridge who house most of their students themselves so can actually stop them returning) but I don't think that would have a big impact on the over 50s. Odd that they're both so low. Oxford in particular you'd think would have enthusiasm for a vaccine invented in their city!

@Firefliess I'm in Oxford, and while we have some super-rich posh areas, we also have some very deprived wards. There are also a lot of Black and Asian people (tend to be spread across the demographics).

I only know one person (so far) who won't take the vaccine - 60s and European but has lived in the UK a long time.

I don't live/work/know many people in the more deprived areas - it would be interesting to see it broken down by ward.

They were vaccinating at the Central Mosque yesterday though. :)

@zimbolino - see the nice chart that @boys3 made up below. It's comparing deprivation with vaccine uptake by MSOAs (which are roughly ward sized) for Oxford and Cambridge combined (as Cambridge has a similar demographic and similar low vaccine uptake) The data doesn't show any clear correlation. So low uptake in Cambridge and Oxford does not appear to be caused by there being deprived areas in cities better known for their affluence.

A GP in Cambridge says that they started early and were doing really well nationally, but were held back by rules that said they weren't allowed to offer invites to certain groups for a long time (e.g., 55-60s, etc) as they had to be done by the mass vac centres etc. Even now that surgery is not doing anyone under 50, as they are not allowed (other than group 6). So they seem to be following guidelines much more than other places - perhaps that could have something to do with it, if that particular health authority was very restrictive. There are some people who are abroad, or who have registered at home as well as university, or who have not registered at university even if they should, which could contribute to it. Or it could just be that the population estimates are somehow really skewed, because the GPs I know don't seem to think that they are generally getting low take-up at all - everyone is really keen. It's really odd that they are so low in the table, and makes me think that there must be something else going on.

Will they be able to update population figures with census data soon? You'd think the move to online census forms would make data collation much simpler and faster this time.