@Doomsdayiscoming
Anyone posted about the continuing falls in people in hospital in England?
Looking like another decent week coming up. Today’s fall was pretty huge: 312.
That makes it 408 for the week (Saturday to Saturday), or 6.7% for far with 4x big days to come. Should hit 20%, perhaps 25%.
Don’t want to jinx it but by 12th April at 20% per week, it will be 2500-3000 in Hospital in England, representing a 90% drop since the peak in January.
If cases haven’t spiked massively due to schools going back then I honestly see no reason to not move certain things into the 12th April slot from the May timetable.
Hospital admissions lag behind cases, so the current falls are reflecting weeks of restrictions.
Most of the scientists think opening schools will push R over 1, probably only slightly, but enough to cause cases to rise. I think a sudden spike is unlikely from the current low case numbers, but as soon as R is above 1 exponential growth kicks in.
We currently have a race between vax and virus, if transmission falls after vaccine (almost certainly the case), then eventually this will bring R back below 1.
We will probably have a 3rd wave, it will be manageable, as it will be mainly people under 50 catching it, so less pressure on the NHS and fewer deaths, but it's still going to effect a few young people badly, and the 5% who aren't covered by a 95% effective vaccine, a tragedy on a personal level, but not a disaster at population level.
If it was realistic and sensible to open faster, the gov would be doing it. As it is they're trying to balance health and economic damage, to come up with the least unpalatable mix. I don't think opening more quickly is really viable, even if the numbers are looking great now.