Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

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It would also be interesting to see if the lower primary increase is due to the children being younger or that the classes tend to be much more defined so the bubbles are smaller

I wonder whether secondary school pupils are more likely to be mixing out of school?

Difficult to compare because yes teens mingle, but primary need childcare, attend wraparound care, also more likely to attend school during lockdown if KWV.

@UserEleventyNine

It would also be interesting to see if the lower primary increase is due to the children being younger or that the classes tend to be much more defined so the bubbles are smaller

I wonder whether secondary school pupils are more likely to be mixing out of school?

I think it's very likely that secondary aged children do mix more out of school. But that won't be the cause of the difference between secondary and primary aged children in this study because it's comparing differences between wave 1 (schools closed) with wave 2 (schools open) - so socialising outside school would presumably have happened in both waves (unless it was socialising on the way to and from school of course)

Though the data is possibly muddied a bit by the fact that there was more legitimate socialising allowed for younger children during the November lockdown - via after school clubs and childcare bubbles.

@UserEleventyNine

It would also be interesting to see if the lower primary increase is due to the children being younger or that the classes tend to be much more defined so the bubbles are smaller

I wonder whether secondary school pupils are more likely to be mixing out of school?

Mine aren't mixing out of school, unless you count online! However if you include walking home in groups or going home on buses as mixing out of school, that will be greatly larger in secondary school.

However primary school are more likely to be in after school clubs or at childminders which could also count as mixing after school.

Going by the police radio (we have one at work) then there aren't too many groups of children going around town, even at the weekend. We can normally tell when the children are out of school by the activity on it.

The Confidence Intervals suggest that the increased risk to shielding people is a real finding, as I understand it.

1 in 340 have covid on the ONS survey up to 13 March.

I've been reading the news today and theyvare saying they cannot keep the South African variant out of the UK. I know there are already cases which are being dealt with by test and trace.

However , they are also reporting that the AZ vaccine is not effective against this variant. I thought I'd ask about it here, rather than Google and scare myself .

At least the shielded are vaccinated. thank God.

Wave One is interesting because for at least the first month(two?) there wasn't testing unless a very serious case. that will have missed some data.

I am pretty sure I caught it from teenagers in mid March. But as a non confirmed case, no data shows that. Those teenagers (returners form a ski trip) almost certainly circulated it to their households.

"However , they are also reporting that the AZ vaccine is not effective against this variant. I thought I'd ask about it here, rather than Google and scare myself ."

I don't know who 'they' are but recent reports eg (more readable) or (more technical) suggest that, in a small group of young people, the AZ vaccine was less effective against mild cases but, "the vaccine is still likely to reduce severe cases and deaths from the South African strain".

@amicissimma it popped up on news feed this morning. I think it was the guardian or telegraph.

I thought I would ask on here as you all seem knowledgeable on stats. I'd probably just get lost in Google

The South African variant does look to me to be a big worry. If the vaccines don't stop transmission then it will spread. The study that showed the AZ vaccine did nothing to stop people catching it had only young people in it - it's a reasonable theory that it might nevertheless stop older people getting really ill but as far as I'm aware there is not as yet any evidence on this one way or the other. Countries with high amount of the SA strain haven't been using the AZ vaccine sufficiently to know.

The latest data on the vaccine effecacy against the UK strain suggested that those who caught Covid after vaccination (second dose) were 40% less likely to be hospitalised. That's not a huge reduction, and it's hard to believe that any vaccine would be any better against the SA strain, for those who catch it anyway. 60% of people who catch it still getting as ill as ever, and no protection at all against catching it does not create the protection we need as a society to open up normal life without overrunning the NHS within a couple of months. I'd therefore expect to see continued travel bans and quarantine requirements this summer (possibly taking in France very soon) and a rush to roll out either AZ boosters tweaked for the SA variant, or some other vaccine (eg Pfizer) used as a booster for those who've had the AZ jab.

@Firefliess, can you provide a source for those data? I can't find anything that gives those figures.

I did read something about giving further boosters to the elderly in august/Sept.

40% less likely to be hospitalised doesn't sound great 😕

Sorry I don't mean to derail the thread... just interested in the numbers and stats behind this.

MedPage's report on the SA AstraZeneca trial results:

www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/91658

Here are sone links for information on variants:

www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201

www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-variants-genomically-confirmed-case-numbers/variants-distribution-of-cases-data

The south africa variant is a worry. Quite a few cases here already and bbc reporting that 10 to 15% of cases in France are now this variant.

4802/101 today

Any idea how the trials for boosters are going? I know that both Pfizer and AZ are working on boosters for the SA strain, and Pfizer had already started small-scale testing (not sure about AZ). Neither of them were thought to need full scale trials and approvals, like the first time round. I wonder how close they are to having them ready? I suppose new contracts etc will be needed for the boosters, so if the UK is keen on getting in on these things early, as they seemed to be last time, you'd hope they'd be well ahead on sorting out the orders?!

From the medpagetoday.com link:

"... there were no cases of hospitalization due to severe COVID-19 in either group, but because of participants' demographic and clinical profile, "the trial findings are inconclusive" with regards to whether or not the vaccine protects against severe disease from the B.1.351 variant.

Exploratory analyses found about 33.5% efficacy (95% CI -13.4 to 61.7) against COVID-19 of any severity more than 14 days after the first dose."

Meanwhile from Canada (Dr. Sumon Chakrabarti, an infectious disease specialist in Mississauga, Ont.) comes: "When you look at deaths and hospitalization, it doesn’t matter if it was Johnson & Johnson, AstraZeneca, Pfizer or Moderna, it was freaking amazing,” Chakrabarti said. “Thousands of participants in the treatment arm of the trials, and not a single person died, not a single person was hospitalized.”

It seems that the picture is not clear. I believe that AZ's measure of 'cases' in their trials was a positive test, regardless of symptoms, while Pfizer just tested symptomatic patients. The Canadians say that "Pfizer and Moderna [were] testing its product when the COVID burden was relatively lower in parts of the world. Johnson & Johnson and AstraZeneca, meanwhile, had their trials later when circulation was increasing, and more transmissible variants were spreading at a rapid pace."

It's so hard to draw any definite conclusions. Personally, I would say that the vaccine in the arm is better than any vaccine (however superior it may appear) in a bottle. It's also the case that scientists are working busily at preparing boosters should they be needed against particular variants.

I wonder if they will be able to do boosters with the flu jabs this winter? It's going to be a massive task if they are done separately.

Infections falling nicely so that's good!

I wonder what's going to happen once the South African variant spreads. A continuation of mass vaccination with another brand or updated vaccine. Maybe tweak the flu vaccine to cover it?

Definately a worry.

At first glance 3809 cases reported today for England is a quite startling drop from the 5529 reported last Friday. Specimen dates to follow.

I think it's 4802

@ancientgran

I wonder if they will be able to do boosters with the flu jabs this winter? It's going to be a massive task if they are done separately.

If SD restrictions are still in/back in place (not the nicest thought I know) I wonder if they’d start considering pouring resources into the delivery of a potential booster for the new variants over a flu vaccine programme?

It’s going to be difficult to predict next winters flus if SD continues in the Southern Hemisphere and we see a repeat of 20/21 conditions and extremely low incidences of flu. It would be a massive gamble but not one that would overly shock me.

@lonelyplanet

I think it's 4802

that's UK; England is 3,809 vs 5,529 last friday. Which does feel like a big drop, especially as over 1,000 are unconfirmed LFTs.