Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

[boys3]

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these

Yet again a huge fall in hospitalisations in England.

314 less for the day. 989 for the week (Saturday to Saturday), two days to come.

16.2% for the week with those two days to come. So will easily hit 20% (1214 drop), might even hit 25% (1518). But probably somewhere in between.

Still heading towards sub 3k, (U.K.-wide) in hospital for April 12th.

"that's UK; England is 3,809 vs 5,529 last friday. Which does feel like a big drop, especially as over 1,000 are unconfirmed LFTs."

Thanks, sorry I missed that. Yes a big drop.

@Lalalablahblahblah I'm not a scientist and definately not great on analysing stats etc.

But from my arm chair.. I think it depends on how well variants that evade current vaccines are contained. Personally, if the numbers stay small, deaths and hospital admissions remain small, I think they will continue to roll out vaccines to phase 2. But... if boosters are needed then they will have to prioritise those whilst vaccinating phase 2 with the improved vaccine. No point continuing to roll out an ineffective vaccine.

I'm surprised no one has questioned this during a press conference tbh.

Specimen dates for England

Thursday 18th

First day of reporting 1641 cases, just under 6% lower than equivalent last week.

Wednesday 17th

Second day of reporting 1740 cases added taking total to 3485, 25% lower than equivalent last week.

Last Wednesday spec date had 1740 cases on day 1 and 2510 on day 2 to give 4250 cases after two days of reporting.

This week 1745 followed by 1740.

Tuesday 16th

Third day of reporting 298 cases added, total 4587, 12% lower than equivalent last week.

Monday 15th

93 cases added, total 5519, 3% lower than equivalent last week.

So the current week starting 15th has seen 15,232 cases compared with 17353 at same point last week, a fall of just over 12%.

There is no indication that numbers have been lost or delayed. Tomorrow will confirm that one way or other.

@Lalalablahblahblah

Does anyone think that a programme of delivering boosters is likely to hold up first and second dose vaccinations in the younger age groups of 16-49 year olds? I'm getting more nervous that the 40-49 year olds (of which I am one!) will be the group to suffer the brunt of Covid admissions and deaths going forward. Especially since a lot of us have school age kids...

I don't think the boosters will be ready for that - I think they will be late summer or autumn at the earliest, though I haven't found info on how the trials and development are going. But I would guess it won't be until after the 40s and 30s (and maybe more) are done. I think they'd continue to roll it out until the point where there was no effectiveness at all - the SA variant was so dominant and there was no protection from the vaccine - and hopefully that is unlikely to be the situation.

But that's all just guessing!

[quote amicissimma]@Firefliess, can you provide a source for those data? I can't find anything that gives those figures.[/quote]
I see you've already managed to track down the study on the SA variant and AZ vaccine that I mentioned. The 40% reduction in hospital admissions amongst vaccinated people who catch Covid anyway was mentioned in one of the press conferences a few days ago. Looks to be from here: publichealthmatters.blog.gov.uk/2021/02/23/covid-19-analysing-first-vaccine-effectiveness-in-the-uk/

@Lalalablahblahblah

Does anyone think that a programme of delivering boosters is likely to hold up first and second dose vaccinations in the younger age groups of 16-49 year olds? I'm getting more nervous that the 40-49 year olds (of which I am one!) will be the group to suffer the brunt of Covid admissions and deaths going forward. Especially since a lot of us have school age kids...

I haven't heard of any boosters undergoing trials so almost certainly no, it won't hold up the current roll-out as there don't seem to be any boosters on the immediate horizon.

We have been assured by manufacturers that they can engineer boosters for variants quickly, and we have been assured that boosters would not need to undergo the full regulatory approval process as they are not significantly different from the parent vaccine.

However since the world is most definitely struggling to manufacture enough vaccine for its population, I don't see how or where they could start producing boosters at the same time as producing vaccine.

@Doomsdayiscoming

Yet again a huge fall in hospitalisations in England.

314 less for the day. 989 for the week (Saturday to Saturday), two days to come.

16.2% for the week with those two days to come. So will easily hit 20% (1214 drop), might even hit 25% (1518). But probably somewhere in between.

Still heading towards sub 3k, (U.K.-wide) in hospital for April 12th.

Brilliant thanks for this

I hadn’t thought about hospitalisation for a while

Does anyone have insight to the ‘3rd wave’ in Europe?

Eg what this means. What is the R?

Are cases high yet? I’ve googled a few countries but cases don’t seem that high yet

But interested in R and what will come next

I could see them replacing the second doses due to younger people with an adapted vaccine that's effectively a booster. Older people might be queuing up for boosters as often as they're told to, but persuading young people to come back for a second shot of an increasingly ineffective vaccine (assuming that by then it's mainly the vaccine-resistant strains that are spreading) might get in the way of getting them to then come back a third time for a booster.

I do wonder how we're doing with procuring boosters. A lot of the world are so far behind in vaccination, but presumably have orders placed - won't those orders have to be fulfilled before we or anyone else can get new orders in for booster shots? I think the government really does need to ramp up vaccine supply, preferably within the UK, as well as looking at the supply chains involved.

I find it very concerning

@Lalalablahblahblah

Does anyone think that a programme of delivering boosters is likely to hold up first and second dose vaccinations in the younger age groups of 16-49 year olds? I'm getting more nervous that the 40-49 year olds (of which I am one!) will be the group to suffer the brunt of Covid admissions and deaths going forward. Especially since a lot of us have school age kids...

No - a booster from AZ won't be ready until the end of the year. They may update the Pfizer one, but they won't bother revaccinating those already vaccinated until they've done everyone else.

The current vaccines are still thought to offer high protection against serious illness from the SA and P1 strains - they just don't stop people testing +ve as well and are thus likely to have a lower impact on transmission.

NB, there's no guarantee a booster will be effective anyway.

Concurrent with the vaccine program they'll run trials with the boosters for possible deployment next winter.

I’m slightly suspicious about the low figures today - only 2 cases reported in my entire borough (both with a specimen date of yesterday) and yet there are 5 classes in self isolation in our primary school, 3 cases in the past two days...and we are just one school of over 100 in the borough. Strange

@ceeveebee
Me too. My LA has had consistently between 40 and 70 cases a day for weeks.
Today there are 11

Yes there are trials of the boosters underway, or at least of Pfizer. I don't know how long it will be for results to be known, though. I think new contracts with the suppliers would be needed, and I don't know how that would fit in with contracts of the current vaccine - I guess it would depend on how ineffective it ended up being as to whether they needed to keep fulfilling those orders, or could transfer some of it to new versions. They might need to be paid for all the current orders regardless before they'd do new ones, who knows. I don't know what the sort of breakdown of costs is in terms of ingredients, time, labour, etc, and how far in advance different stages of the process are being done. I hope that the UK gets on with ordering new boosters, though, as I think it will be needed, and I think there will be competition for the supply. I hope that domestic production ramps up too, both here and in many other places, so that politics becomes less of a factor.

I’m right in thinking you are NW as well aren’t you @Frazzled2207? Wonder if there has been some delay in a NW testing centre?

I'm wondering how the cases are dropping when covid messenger shows so manyboroughs ( mine included ) as rising

@ceeveebee
Yeah I’m in GM. Not heard anything locally about delays so will be watching tomorrow’s figures more closely than usual

Two more deaths at Sidmouth care home that makes 7, police investigation continuing. Ten residents still in hospital.

@CappuccinoCounter

Yes there are trials of the boosters underway, or at least of Pfizer. I don't know how long it will be for results to be known, though. I think new contracts with the suppliers would be needed, and I don't know how that would fit in with contracts of the current vaccine - I guess it would depend on how ineffective it ended up being as to whether they needed to keep fulfilling those orders, or could transfer some of it to new versions. They might need to be paid for all the current orders regardless before they'd do new ones, who knows. I don't know what the sort of breakdown of costs is in terms of ingredients, time, labour, etc, and how far in advance different stages of the process are being done. I hope that the UK gets on with ordering new boosters, though, as I think it will be needed, and I think there will be competition for the supply. I hope that domestic production ramps up too, both here and in many other places, so that politics becomes less of a factor.

Wouldn't the current vaccine just be replaced by the new one so the contract would just continue with the updated vaccine being delivered?

@ceeveebee

Unfortunately this chart by Richard on Twitter suggests there is indeed a problem with the case figures for north west today. Very few with specimen date of two days ago. I suspect it’s a processing delay unfortunately

I wish I'd had the Pfizer I know any vaccine is better than none, but this is very discouraging.

@Lalalablahblahblah

Does anyone think that a programme of delivering boosters is likely to hold up first and second dose vaccinations in the younger age groups of 16-49 year olds? I'm getting more nervous that the 40-49 year olds (of which I am one!) will be the group to suffer the brunt of Covid admissions and deaths going forward. Especially since a lot of us have school age kids...

No. Partly because August is likely the soonest date and most wanting a vaccine will have had it by then. All that will change regardless is switching the virus insert into the vaccine at a point in time. Some delayed people in 16-29 might only get the variant twice, some delayed people in 30-40 get one of each, 40+ all likely to need to return for a third booster. They'll keep the first and second doses going on schedule, but add third dose boosters as next stage in the plan. You can see on the FT plan that there's space to start from September even if nothing speeds up. Most likely will be mixed vaccines at some point, it's logical that would work best, but then I have a question that I've no idea how they would work out who gets which different one for their variant.

@Dementedswan

I wish I'd had the Pfizer I know any vaccine is better than none, but this is very discouraging.

Why?

I’ve missed this