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Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March

982 replies

boys3 · 17/03/2021 18:25

UK govt pressers Slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics Attendance explore-education-statistics. service.gov.uk/find-statistics/attendance-in-education-and-early-years-settings-during-the-coronavirus-covid-19-outbreak
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHs England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSAO Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
CovidMessenger live update by council district in England www.covidmessenger.com/
Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, tests, ONS deaths Dashboard app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjoiZGYxNjYzNmUtOTlmZS00ODAxLWE1YTEtMjA0NjZhMzlmN2JmIiwidCI6IjljOWEzMGRlLWQ4ZDctNGFhNC05NjAwLTRiZTc2MjVmZjZjNSIsImMiOjh9
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe Uk data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK read https_www.ecdc.europa.eu/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.ecdc.europa.eu%2Fen%2Fcases-2019-ncov-eueea
Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=gbr&areas=fra&areas=esp&areas=ita&areas=deu&areas=swe&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&byDate=1&cumulative=1&logScale=1&per100K=1&values=deaths
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

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We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
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OP posts:
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89
Dementedswan · 19/03/2021 18:55

Just going by data posted . But like I said, I'm lucky I've I've a jab in my arm. I'm pleased about that. Just worried about effectiveness against variants. Plus I believe Pfizer is more effective overall....

I stand ready to be corrected.

CappuccinoCounter · 19/03/2021 18:55

Wouldn't the current vaccine just be replaced by the new one so the contract would just continue with the updated vaccine being delivered?

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that new contracts would be required. I don't know if that has to do with the order that they'd be processed in; the contracts are to deliver a specific thing now, and I don't know how much lead time that requires to make the current ones. But I think the idea is that they need to be fulfilled (or scrapped) rather that just replaced with the new vaccine.

So in that case, the UK would need to get on and order boosters - perhaps taking a chance on it, the same way it did with ordering all the initial doses (over-ordering)

MRex · 19/03/2021 19:10

@Dementedswan

I wish I'd had the Pfizer Sad I know any vaccine is better than none, but this is very discouraging.
Oh come on, data thread is supposed to be a haven where we rely on facts. Novovax and Janssen are the only vaccines tested in stage 3 trials in SA. Oxford, Pfizer and Moderna all have similar efficacy reductions from looking at blood serum. As per Janssen and Novovax, the most likely outcome is drastically reduced hospitalisations and deaths, but a lot more cases get mild and moderate symptoms. That's still not great because it can keep transmission going and risk other variants, hence the need for boosters, but it isn't as disastrous as people keep suggesting. What's fucking disastrous is the slow pace of vaccinations in countries who have vaccine sitting there unused while citizens needlessly continue to get sick and die. What is really needed is for everyone to stop grumble-spreading needless panic about fantastic life-saving vaccines.

And by the way there are trials for Oxford AZ and Moderna variants too.

Dementedswan · 19/03/2021 19:12

Hopefully variants of concern can be kept under control. Personally speaking as someone with everyone in the family with underlying conditions, apart from our dc, the only children in the family. I find this extremely concerning . Dh has had Pfizer, the GPS and I have had oxford. I appreciate we are lucky we have had first jabs.

ceeveebee · 19/03/2021 19:40

[quote Frazzled2207]@ceeveebee

Unfortunately this chart by Richard on Twitter suggests there is indeed a problem with the case figures for north west today. Very few with specimen date of two days ago. I suspect it’s a processing delay unfortunately[/quote]
Yep - looking at RP131’s tables thread, yesterday Greater Manchester had 457 positives with 108 or 24% day-1 and the rest mostly day-2

Today Greater Manchester has only 177 cases of which 74 or 42% day-1. Feels like too big a drop to be true.

Frazzled2207 · 19/03/2021 19:44

rubbish isn't it. Hopefully the picture will become clearer tomorrow - it could still be a drop, but I don't think it's that much of a drop!

ancientgran · 19/03/2021 19:45

@CappuccinoCounter

Wouldn't the current vaccine just be replaced by the new one so the contract would just continue with the updated vaccine being delivered?

I'm pretty sure I read somewhere that new contracts would be required. I don't know if that has to do with the order that they'd be processed in; the contracts are to deliver a specific thing now, and I don't know how much lead time that requires to make the current ones. But I think the idea is that they need to be fulfilled (or scrapped) rather that just replaced with the new vaccine.

So in that case, the UK would need to get on and order boosters - perhaps taking a chance on it, the same way it did with ordering all the initial doses (over-ordering)

Seems madness to keep producing something that has been replaced by a more appropriate product. Say the current vaccine became totally useless because of mutations would we still have to buy the contracted amount of it? Doesn't make sense to me.
Doomsdayiscoming · 19/03/2021 20:03

Does anyone have any data for ventilation?

From the peak of 4077 (24th January) it took 32 days to half to 2047 (25th February), and then 18 days to half again to 1016 (15th March). I think it looks likely we’ll reach sub 500 before 3rd April (18 days from 15th March). Currently: 879.

I thought this would take much longer to decrease, but it’s still falling (especially in England) at great pace.

I presume very few new patients are going onto ventilation now? Vaccine effect?

MargaretThursday · 19/03/2021 20:08

One thing that concerns me, is when we locked down it was the areas with the Kent variation that was rife that were really high numbers, predominantly the south.

I know it had been detected further north, but not the the proportions down here. With reopening schools, I wonder whether we will see similar rises in the north as the Kent variety gets more of a hold up there.

Doomsdayiscoming · 19/03/2021 20:15

@MargaretThursday

One thing that concerns me, is when we locked down it was the areas with the Kent variation that was rife that were really high numbers, predominantly the south.

I know it had been detected further north, but not the the proportions down here. With reopening schools, I wonder whether we will see similar rises in the north as the Kent variety gets more of a hold up there.

But numbers have always been higher in the north throughout the last 12 months.

The south was an easy target combined with a more contagious variant = super spread.

Plus a load of people have been vaccinated in the North now. I think that cancels out the effect. Add in warmer weather allowing for social impacts on transmission. I don’t see any risk at all.

CappuccinoCounter · 19/03/2021 20:19

Seems madness to keep producing something that has been replaced by a more appropriate product. Say the current vaccine became totally useless because of mutations would we still have to buy the contracted amount of it? Doesn't make sense to me.

I don't know. I'm just remembering from an article I read, and would like to know more. But I guess it comes down to how much needed to be invested to design the product in the first place. If we guaranteed to buy so much of the vaccine in order for them to recoup the research and production costs, then that would still have to be met, I guess, depending how far along in the process of making it they were (I don't know what sort of lead time this requires). They might be able to stop making it and switch to something else, but whether that would save much in terms of costs, I don't know. They might end up being paid, but not end up producing it if it's totally useless by then - but I suspect it wouldn't be totally useless.
Just like lots of countries invested in vaccines that didn't work. You don't necessarily get the money back because of that - it's a gamble, and the UK backed some that worked and some that didn't. I imagine that it's similar if the vaccine stops working - if you've promised to buy a certain amount of it, you're probably still liable to pay that, whether you still want the product in the end or not. I'm sure it's much more complicated than that really, but research has huge costs that will only be met by people investing in the potential for a product, regardless of the outcome. I'm sure the governments will have to invest in the potential for boosters, just to get the research and trials underway, even if they ultimately fail (which I don't think is likely, but of course would be a theoretical possibility).

SpringisSpinning · 19/03/2021 20:24

Why is it discouraging?

What's the main fear re south Africa varient.. Is it that we can't tweak vaccine fast enough to combat it, and then another strain may emerge?

Someone mentioned 40% reduction.. That's good isn't it? Similar ish to flu vaccine?
Also I thought I read that merely provoking an immune response was good?

Generally?

Has anyone heard, been aware of better type lateral flow tests developed?
Wouldn't this be a huge game changer if very actuate fast tests were made and we could all quickly check ourselves everywhere?
Before going out, being allowed into venues.. Flights... And so on... School.

MarshaBradyo · 19/03/2021 20:31

I’ve just read a post about a ‘French variant’

Does that exist?

I’ve had a g&t but generally feel I’m losing it as I thought we were in a good place (as much as we can be) but keep seeing posts despairing

MRex · 19/03/2021 20:31

I've seen a fair few comments about what is it isn't included in contracts around variants. Which is amazing, because the contracts haven't been published in full with all clauses, so we don't know. Contracts can also be changed for mutual benefit, and frequently are. The majority of the vaccine creation process is identical, that's why they don't need the same number of steps for regulatory approval. The only "spanner" to throw in is that certain sites are serving multiple countries, so they would need to switch at a time that works for all orders. That kind of coordination really shouldn't be beyond the wit of mankind, but recent EU events suggest there will be a certain level of headlines and (perceived or actual) mild chaos to get there.

MRex · 19/03/2021 20:32

@MarshaBradyo

I’ve just read a post about a ‘French variant’

Does that exist?

I’ve had a g&t but generally feel I’m losing it as I thought we were in a good place (as much as we can be) but keep seeing posts despairing

Yes, the Brittany one. Looks like the Finland one as it "doesn't show up on PCR tests". (A statement that has been repeated many times, but none of us have yet been able to get our heads around).
Doomsdayiscoming · 19/03/2021 20:34

@SpringisSpinning

Why is it discouraging?

What's the main fear re south Africa varient.. Is it that we can't tweak vaccine fast enough to combat it, and then another strain may emerge?

Someone mentioned 40% reduction.. That's good isn't it? Similar ish to flu vaccine?
Also I thought I read that merely provoking an immune response was good?

Generally?

Has anyone heard, been aware of better type lateral flow tests developed?
Wouldn't this be a huge game changer if very actuate fast tests were made and we could all quickly check ourselves everywhere?
Before going out, being allowed into venues.. Flights... And so on... School.

Investors have piled in on a company called Avacta. Check the share price. People have made millions.

A friend works there. She told me a while ago the test was rubbish. Investors don’t seem to care: the price jumped when a press release said it was effective at detecting the Kent variant (this was a week or two ago). No shit! It would be a crap test if it didn’t!

MargaretThursday · 19/03/2021 20:41

But numbers have always been higher in the north throughout the last 12 months.
Not in December/January. If you look at the regions the 7 day average peak in January per 100k for NW was about 650, NE about 485 and Yorkshire was only 385 whereas the SE peak was around 776 and London was over 1000.

I follow various areas.
My parents' are NW. Their borough was high in November, but then in December and January, they were right down at the bottom end of LittleOwl's wonderful table, I think they were about 280th for ages. Now, despite falling mostly week on week they've been in the top 100 consistently.
Another area I follow is in the SE. They got up to nearly 1000/100k and in the top 50. Now they're under 25k and right down at the bottom of the table.

The north didn't do as big a peak in January, which is when the Kent variation was causing havoc, but has dropped slower since then.

Dementedswan · 19/03/2021 21:20

I'm north east. 3 weeks ago my local area had 192/100000 which is very high. Today its 42/100000. Due to us being cv and jab imminent we haven't sent our dx back to school yet. Bow we've both had a jab, they will be back I school after Easter hols on 12tg April I'd be a lot happier if I'd had the Pfizer

boys3 · 19/03/2021 21:44

@ceeveebee @Frazzled2207 the figures for the North West do look too good to be true. Just taking the first four days of this week as reported so far 28% lower than this time last week's confirmed cases for the firstfour days. Tables with each NW LA atttached.

Plus which I should have highlighted more strongly is the total number added in England to Wednesday's second day of reporting being almost identical to the first day's number is something I'm pretty sure has never happened before or got even close to, so quite why it should start now raises doubts.

Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March
Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 17th March
OP posts:
ancientgran · 19/03/2021 21:49

@CappuccinoCounter

Seems madness to keep producing something that has been replaced by a more appropriate product. Say the current vaccine became totally useless because of mutations would we still have to buy the contracted amount of it? Doesn't make sense to me.

I don't know. I'm just remembering from an article I read, and would like to know more. But I guess it comes down to how much needed to be invested to design the product in the first place. If we guaranteed to buy so much of the vaccine in order for them to recoup the research and production costs, then that would still have to be met, I guess, depending how far along in the process of making it they were (I don't know what sort of lead time this requires). They might be able to stop making it and switch to something else, but whether that would save much in terms of costs, I don't know. They might end up being paid, but not end up producing it if it's totally useless by then - but I suspect it wouldn't be totally useless.
Just like lots of countries invested in vaccines that didn't work. You don't necessarily get the money back because of that - it's a gamble, and the UK backed some that worked and some that didn't. I imagine that it's similar if the vaccine stops working - if you've promised to buy a certain amount of it, you're probably still liable to pay that, whether you still want the product in the end or not. I'm sure it's much more complicated than that really, but research has huge costs that will only be met by people investing in the potential for a product, regardless of the outcome. I'm sure the governments will have to invest in the potential for boosters, just to get the research and trials underway, even if they ultimately fail (which I don't think is likely, but of course would be a theoretical possibility).

I thought the govt gave £60 million for research for the AZ vaccine. Surely that must give us some rights. It was the main one we gave funding to if I remember correctly. Just seems madness to keep making the original one once they have an update and I can't see how that could be justified ethically. I guess we just have to wait and see.
Frazzled2207 · 19/03/2021 21:50

While disappointing I’m sure delays at individual testing centres or the reporting will happen from time to time and it would be unrealistic to make us aware of each one. Just fingers crossed they get it sorted quickly.

boys3 · 19/03/2021 21:57

Seems a long time since BigChoc was with us. Wouldn't her insights be great on the latest situation in Germany.

Although the RKI's weekly updates are always insightful www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Maerz_2021/2021-03-18-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile

OP posts:
JanFebAnyMonth · 19/03/2021 22:29

[quote boys3]Seems a long time since BigChoc was with us. Wouldn't her insights be great on the latest situation in Germany.

Although the RKI's weekly updates are always insightful www.rki.de/DE/Content/InfAZ/N/Neuartiges_Coronavirus/Situationsberichte/Maerz_2021/2021-03-18-en.pdf?__blob=publicationFile[/quote]
I was thinking exactly the same as I heard that Angela Merkel has warned that the lockdown they're just coming out of is going to be repeated very shortly.

MRex · 20/03/2021 06:22

[quote MarshaBradyo]MRex ok thanks found it

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.forbes.com/sites/joshuacohen/2021/03/17/latest-covid-19-variant-discovered-in-france-isnt-detected-by-standard-pcr-tests/amp/[/quote]
Thanks.
Eight of 79 Covid-19 patients turned out to be carriers of the new variant, nicknamed “le variant breton.” Initially they tested negative with gold-standard PCR tests, despite presenting with typical symptoms of Covid-19. But later, coronavirus infection was confirmed with analysis of blood samples and tissue in the respiratory system. All 8 patients have sincedied.
Blood samples or tissue. That's not easy. Perhaps the new type of LFD should be a pinprick blood test rather than a spit test. Blood raises a million approval health concerns presumably, making it unsuitable for mass venue use?