Vaccine supply about to significantly reduce

[DareIask]

Looks like Europe may have got their way

And that’s not to do with vaccination or not but variants more prevalent in Europe

@WombatChocolate

Would you go on a European holiday this summer?

I feel that we might just need not go abroad this summer (unless for essential reasons) as so much if Europe won’t be vaccinated and we need to keep Brazil variant out as much as poss.

It’s a shame, but it strikes me as odd to go to all this effort with lockdown and vaccines and then to send millions off to a place where the virus is still going strong and the population aren’t vaccinated.....and that’s with all our kids who aren’t vaccinated and might not be a big risk of dying but are good at transmitting it.

Do you see it differently? I guess lots of people do because people are talking about foreign hols.

Yes I’ll. my family lives abroad so if I can I’ll. and yes I’ll go on holidays to another country. A country which had managed COVID thousand times better than the uk and which will have its population vaccinated by summer so I won’t be a risk to this country.

Each person has reasons to want to travel abroad. Same as those that want to go to the pub. In the uk new variants can also arise (specially if people don’t get vaccinated as much as needed) so I won’t tell anyone don’t go to the pub stay at home this summer .. but don’t tell me where do I need to spend my time if I’m allowed to

No. Not telling you what to do, just interested in different reactions to the possibility. If we are allowed to go, of course you will be free to choose for yourself.

And yes, you’re right that people have all kinds of reasons for doing all kinds of things.

As Marsha says, it’s headline news this morning that travel abroad this summer is very unlikely anyway. With much of Europe going into another lockdown and places like Germany talking about exponential growth in infection, the case against opening travel is going to be getting weaker rather than stronger.

@MarshaBradyo

This morning is the first time I’ve heard the phrase extremely unlikely when talking about European holiday

Scientist though, yet to see government position

Hoping to go abroad myself this summer but tbh I do think the risk of letting in variants that don’t respond to the vaccines, is just too high

I think all the Germans arriving in Majorca over the next few weeks may put paid to anyone going on holiday...........

I wouldn't go abroad this year anyway and actually I would prefer that a mandated 14 day hotel quarantine for all returning travellers was put in place.

Whilst I am sure it would have happened anyway, it was returning travellers, especially from Spain, that drove our 1st 2 waves.

We surely can't make that mistake again. I know that is not good news for people with family elsewhere and maybe if things were OK in their home country then special dispensation can be put in place, but we need to prioritise UK 1st and its safer if we limit foreign travel until the pandemic is fully under control.

Sorry...meant stronger rather than weaker...as you can probably tell.

Both my husband and I have had the first vaccine, but we will wait till next year to go abroad. I don't love the hassle of flying at the best of times and we don't go abroad every year anyway.

Just being able to visit places and go out to eat sounds like bliss right now, so I'm content to wait a bit longer for the rest.

I wouldn't want to go abroad this year to be honest, although I don't have family to visit. I expect I would feel very different if I did.

We've booked Florida for next April but it can be moved until the following year if necessary so I'm comfortable about booking and deciding later on.

Regarding quarantining on return, I seem to remember reading that Israel offer the option of a hotel or a GPS tag to quarantine at home. Given the choice I would choose the tag and my home over some crappy hotel!

It seems silly to jeopardise everything we've achieved to risk it all for a week in the sun. There are still so many unvaccinated and we don't know enough about variants.

Essential travellers and those wishing to see family could quarantine.

Hopefully they don't open up travel before those who are getting vaccinated here have had both jabs at least. A new mutation infecting someone after their 1st vaccine sounds like a recipe for vaccine resistance of the variants to increase.

I’m cautiously optimistic about the roadmap being irreversible.

I’d prefer we were even more cautious about variants than go backwards.

May 17 is when travel regulation is set to change so I’ll guess we’ll see. Personally I wouldn’t book France or nearby but obvs people can take the risk.

I'm not expecting to go abroad this year, maybe not for the foreseeable future. I can easily live without foreign holidays for a while longer if I have to.

O think it’ll be a miss of conditions
Red country > hotel
Orange country pcr and/or home quarantine
Green country pcr

And this is my suspicion seeing what other countries are doing around the world regards opening. It doesn’t make sense that the country I want to go to on holidays that have had around 6k cases in the whole pandemic and is doing really well in vaccinations needs to hotel quarantine. I’m safer there travelling alone and not being surrounded by people than in the town centre in the pub area where I live . It does make sense that if I travel to Germany and they’re having an strong wave I can enter back with no conditions. So yes I agree that we’ll need conditions but I don’t think it’ll be black or white but a mix of conditions.

Saying this id see what is happening regards the vaccinations. Seems from other threads people are still invited to book vacs below 50 and also that the government is doing what they can to get more vacs. Hancock said the other day that there won’t be weeks when no new people receive vacs in April. If they want 1-9 done by 15 April they need below 50 from 15-30 so I’m hoping they put themselves in the worse but things can get better when we are in April

I wouldn’t count on significant numbers of 40s being jabbed before May.

The instruction to vaccine centres is to hold off inviting them. When Hancock says there will be first jabs in May, he deliberately doesn’t mention 40s because has tried to play down the fact the roll out to them is delayed by about 6 weeks. First jabs will happen but to 50s who are booking now and who will take a while to all book (not everyone is chomping at the bit) and also to those in previous groups who need another invitation or an invitation to a closer location or a home visit or whatever to get the, done. This mop-up is on-going and will last until after everyone has been invited. Some people have already had 8 contacts to help them get jabbed.

So if 40s get done through May, their 2nd doses will be through August. I’d guess 40s is the age of most parents looking for summer hols abroad in school time. Of course their teens who have the bodies of adults won’t have been jabbed at all.

@EasterIssland

O think it’ll be a miss of conditions Red country > hotel Orange country pcr and/or home quarantine Green country pcr

And this is my suspicion seeing what other countries are doing around the world regards opening. It doesn’t make sense that the country I want to go to on holidays that have had around 6k cases in the whole pandemic and is doing really well in vaccinations needs to hotel quarantine. I’m safer there travelling alone and not being surrounded by people than in the town centre in the pub area where I live . It does make sense that if I travel to Germany and they’re having an strong wave I can enter back with no conditions. So yes I agree that we’ll need conditions but I don’t think it’ll be black or white but a mix of conditions.

It may well be a mix as you say

Makes sense. My comment was because he mentioned everyone 1-9 will be vaccinated before the 15th. That includes those over 50 or cev/cv. So leaves a few weeks of who is going to get it ? However , saying this it doesn’t make much difference 15th of April or 1st may

@Eeriesilence I have no idea how to respond to that! I can only point out that MN is neither representative of the UK as a whole or one homologous entity?

I think all the Germans arriving in Majorca over the next few weeks may put paid to anyone going on holiday...........

I’d booked Mallorca for a few days in June (holiday carried over from last year). Pretty obvious that’s not going to happen. Apparently the Spanish are up in arms because they’re not allowed to travel between regions so they can’t go to Mallorca but the Germans can. But equally I guess the Mallorcan tourist industry is thrilled that the Germans are coming!

I’m also planning a holiday in Spain in September but obviously will be guided by the situation at the time - nice to have something to look forward to but it won’t be the end of the world if it doesn’t happen.

Half of the adult population may have had their first dose but that's only 25% of what needs doing.

Vaccinated will mean both doses surely

@DareIask

Half of the adult population may have had their first dose but that's only 25% of what needs doing.

Vaccinated will mean both doses surely

Well yes but no outlet is claiming that 50% are fully vaccinated. It's an amazing amount of people in the timeframe and the logistics.

Saying only 25% of vaccines have been done is certainly a glass half empty approach isn’t it.

Over 711,000 does given yesterday across UK for first and 2nd doses. These days of big supply are managing over 1% of population each day. That’s massive. It won’t continue like that into April when supply drops a bit, but we must celebrate these weeks when vast numbers are being done.

We should hit 30m by next weekend if we carry on as this week...it’s not until after that when supply will be a bit disturbed.

In the trials of AZ, from 22 days after the first dose there were no severe cases of covid or hospitalisations. It's what we're afraid of isn't it

@DareIask

Half of the adult population may have had their first dose but that's only 25% of what needs doing.

Vaccinated will mean both doses surely

When you are given a vaccine, you are vaccinated. With AZ and Pfizer, you have two vaccinations. Around three weeks after the first vaccination you will have some immunity, the exact amount can't be specified but it's reported to be over 52%. After both vaccinations you will have more immunity. At this point you can say you've been immunised against Covid.

If half of the adult population have had their first dose, then half the population already have a good degree of immunity. This is good news.

@HSHorror are you under 50?