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Vaccine supply about to significantly reduce

987 replies

DareIask · 17/03/2021 16:51

Looks like Europe may have got their way

OP posts:
StarCat2020 · 19/03/2021 12:23

It is an odd way to look at it
I might have the wrong end of the stick here but are you saying that people are odd for mixing once they received one dose of vaccine?

sleepwouldbenice · 19/03/2021 12:28

@WombatChocolate

Marsha, there are lots of reports that the Telegraph and other media published the hoped for timescales AFTER a government media briefing. Perhaps they interpreted what was said optimistically, it it was following a government briefing which focused on the fact they had increased vaccine supply for the end of March (that’s the increas in doses being seen now) and it was full steam ahead....ie, not a sudden stop, which has had to happen.

Regarding when everyone would be offered and when everyone will actually have their vaccines is 2 different things. You can consider people have been offered the vaccine when the national booking site opens up to their age. That’s the point when everyone in that group is eligible to book. Not everyone looks there or knows and that’s why letters are sent out too. They can arrive a week later. It wasn’t unrealistic to think all 40s could have been eligible to book on the website by the end of March or Easter. And then people book over a period of time. Some book as soon as the booking site will allow them (sometimes before the front page is updated with their age) and others as soon as the front page updates and others when they get their letter. Some don’t book then because they don’t want to go the mass centres which can involve a journey and instead want to wait for a GP local based invite which might come at a similar time as the national invitation or can be 2-3 weeks later as GPs follow up those who haven’t booked. Then there are those who need several phone calls to actually book (just disorganised) or who need a home visit or a chat with the GP as they are hesitant.

Any individual group takes ages to be done and is never done in total. There are still over 80s and over 70s not done.ll.not because they haven’t been eligible and invited, but because of a variety of these reasons above. The GPs have to keep ‘mopping up’ and will be doing so long after the 18s have all been invited. It’s just the reality. But once the majority have booked, they don’t just wait for the last ones to be done but move into the next group and do mop up at same time. It makes sense when you think about it....we need speed with this, rather than insisting every person over 80 has accepted a vaccine before moving o to the next group. So, all over 50s wouldn’t have been jabbed by the time it was offered to 40s. Some would have booked for 2 weeks ahead and be waiting to go and some wouldn’t have booked for all the reasons mentioned earlier. It was never likely all 40s would have actually been jabbed by Easter. What would have been possible was that it was open to booking for all 40s by Easter or even the end of March. The it’s up to people to actually get on and book and attend. GPs would later then follow up those who didn’t.

It’s a complex system. People are invited in priority order by the national system. GP led system is at slightly different points across the country, largely reflecting different age demographics. But people don’t get jabbed in exact order. Some don’t book, some don’t attend....and the programme keeps rolling out, even when they don’t. They are followed up (often many times) but that’s alongside the rollout to younger groups, not instead of rolling out to younger groups.

60s were offered 2 weeks ago, 55s last week, 50s this week, so 45s could well have been booking next week. That’s what the media said and that’s what the rollout pattern looked like. And that was with factoring in 2nd doses and mop up of those not done in earlier groups. That was the plan. But now supply means there’s enough to offer to all the 50 s who will book and do the mop up and do the 2nd doses which absolutely must happen....but not enough toe spandex the rollout behind that.

45+ are just unlucky the supply problem came as it was about to get to them. It could have happened 2 weeks ago and impacted 50s.

The over 45s haven’t just ‘got ahead of themselves’ and been expecting something there was no basis of . The system was moving speedily towards them being offered, Sir Simon said at briefings to the public (about 2-3 weeks ago when phase 2 was mentioned) that there would be a move immediately from phase 1 (over 50s) to phase 2 (under 50s) and the government briefed the media at the end of last week about how brilliantly it was going and they then reported 40s were imminent. But it’s true that the government official timescales never give dates for individual grouos and only ever gave 15 April and end of July as dates for phase 1 and 2. But within those dates, people following have a sense and the media reports and government indicates where individual age cohorts might be within those broad timeframes. That did happen and it is that which has now changed.

Upper 40s didn’t imagine it or get ahead of themselves or want to queue jump or deny 2nd dosers their jab or the 80s who still haven’t been done e theirs. The government was geared up to rollout to 40s and had to pull back. The letter on NHS England to vaccine providers (the letter which caused the fuss on Weds and is still there) clearly tells sites to pull back and close bookings and not post the slots they were expecting to post. It was a very real step change.

Totally agree with you again I also volunteer at a vaccine clinic. They had a small bump in supply first 2 weeks of March for whatever reason. Then we received emails saying we were scaling up dramatically from mid March onwards due to better supply and to meet the needs of doing second doses as well as continuing with first at a pace It is not just the newspapers that expected to crack on with the over 40s /45s shortly🙄
MarshaBradyo · 19/03/2021 12:29

It is not just the newspapers that expected to crack on with the over 40s /45s shortly🙄

No but that is not what I was saying.

MarshaBradyo · 19/03/2021 12:33

@StarCat2020

It is an odd way to look at it I might have the wrong end of the stick here but are you saying that people are odd for mixing once they received one dose of vaccine?
I’m not vaccinated yet but dh now is. I don’t think he’d meet his parents who also are, because of restrictions.

I get some might but I had thought guidance was to wait for restrictions to lift.

BungleandGeorge · 19/03/2021 12:39

People worrying about someone else getting something they’re not! I know lots of people who are vaccinated, they’re not mixing, we’re still in lockdown, it’s still not allowed and punishable with a big fine. Support bubbles, childcare bubbles are allowed for all. The rules are no different for those who have been vaccinated

StarCat2020 · 19/03/2021 13:01

@MarshaBradyo
Thanks, that's what I thought you meant.

Sometimes I read posts on here and I am not sure whether I have understood it right.

I think that could be a stupidme problem though??

StarCat2020 · 19/03/2021 13:21

Bugger posted that too soon.

Above link is "the science" used to inform the roadmap.

Quartz2208 · 19/03/2021 13:39

thanks StarCat

There are still many people in vulnerable groups who do not have protection; neither directly (either because they have not been vaccinated or because their vaccination has not prevented them from becoming infected then ill) nor indirectly from wider population immunity (because many younger age groups have not yet been vaccinated or infected).

I think sums it up for me. The under 50s not having vaccinations in terms of the vaccination effect impacts everyone. The under 50s are going to be those that have always driven spread.

We dont distinguish here between things that vaccinated can do and non vaccinated so it shouldnt make any difference to seeing people at all

Unmellowbirds · 19/03/2021 13:50

I'd hope if under 50s follow the guidance that is in force and as it changes, they should not significantly increase the spread.

Just as those who have been vaccinated should.

Piggywaspushed · 19/03/2021 13:53

The BMJ paper out today does show there is an increased risk of infection and hospitalisation for parents of school age children. it is small in most groups (not the shielded!)and the data has its issues but it is still an increased risk. These are , in all likelihood, the unvaccinated populations.

PrincessNutNuts · 19/03/2021 13:55

The "one jab" old ladies round my way just ride the bus to socialise. So they're not congregating together - but they are. But not breaking any rules.

They have flasks and sandwiches and bus passes and they get off for a wee every couple of hours and just get back on the next one.

Grin
StarCat2020 · 19/03/2021 14:26

@Quartz2208
Glad you found it helpful.

Squidwardrules · 19/03/2021 14:34

@StarCat2020

Bugger posted that too soon.

Above link is "the science" used to inform the roadmap.

Am I misunderstanding this document? It seems to be based on between 85% and 75% of under 50s being vaccinated? That’s not going to happen now presumably?
StarCat2020 · 19/03/2021 14:59

Am I misunderstanding this document? It seems to be based on between 85% and 75% of under 50s being vaccinated? That’s not going to happen now presumably?
The document lists many possible scenarios but no doubt about another wave, just the size of it.

Under 50s (or at least 18-50s) will get vaccinated or "have the offer of a first dose by 31 July).

EerieSilence · 19/03/2021 16:43

@CuriousaboutSamphire not true. There's enough of "the EU are bullying us" on this thread even though India just did the same.
I really don't get the obsession with the EU in the UK right now. You just keep looking back instead of focusing on future. You approve of your own country's misdeeds wholeheartedly (didn't the UK cancel most of their overseas help while blaming the EU for not supplying the Third World with vaccines, breaking the agreement on Northern Ireland while making a huge scandal out of the EU's very short-termed brain fart which didn't live to see the next day), browse the Daily Fail which has become the most favourite newspaper on Mumsnet from the look of the things, at least in the post-Brexit world for anything that the EU is doing to the poor UK or even what they do and it doesn't involve the UK to discuss it on Mumsnet. Why? Don't you have your own country to take care of? Your own issues? Why still deal with the issues of a community you don't belong to anymore?

HopelessBlue192 · 19/03/2021 16:47

This is essentially to create an illusion of scarcity (all it really means is that less vaccines available for first doses a second doses will be done) so that those under 50 who appear to be less likely to take up the jab, suddenly want it because there's more demand and less supply.

WombatChocolate · 19/03/2021 16:53

Hopeless...no it isn’t purely this. As a poster up thread who works in a. Vaccine centre said, the centres were all geared up to deliver more to 2nd dosers and expecting it to expand on 1st does too (as it actually is this week) into April too.

There has been a step change and it’s come as a surprise to those in 40s expecting to be added to eligible group in next week, and to those working in delivering the vaccine.

Northernsoulgirl45 · 19/03/2021 17:32

@Dongdingdong no I hadn't even given the timeliness a second thought before that thread. I and others on that thread said we felt it optimistic and we were shot down. I knew my ECV dh had only just been done so it seemed optimistic.
Maybe if they hadn't had supply problems it would have.

LimitIsUp · 19/03/2021 17:42

EerieSilence

This is why the EU are getting the heat (from an article in todays Times)

Britain is building an alliance against Brussels, Germany, France and Italy to prevent a European Union vaccine export ban hitting crucial supplies of Pfizer-BioNTech jabs.

Boris Johnson spoke to Alexander De Croo, the Belgian prime minister, last night because Belgium, where the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine is manufactured, is opposed to export bans.

The prime minister contacted De Croo, who has been critical of him in the past, to try to ensure that vaccine supplies are not blocked and because Belgium plays a key role with France and Italy.

“We discussed our efforts to tackle Covid-19. We also touched on the importance of global supply chains and on common efforts to speed up vaccine production,” De Croo said after what he described as a “good call”.

The new round of frantic vaccine diplomacy comes before an EU meeting next Thursday with the aim, said sources, of ensuring that deliveries of the Pfizer-BioNTech jab are not disrupted, jeopardising Britain’s vaccine programme and poisoning already tense relations with the EU irreversibly.

Belgium, Ireland, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden are against the threat made by Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission president, to stop exports.

The Belgian government is concerned that export bans would damage the pharmaceutical industry, especially Pfizer’s huge Puurs production site, by damaging supply chains that rely on international trade, including British factories.

On Wednesday von der Leyen, the former German defence minister, who is very close to Germany’s chancellor, Angela Merkel, threatened to trigger emergency powers allowing the EU to seize vaccines or take control of factories that are making jabs earmarked for export.

She said that the EU was targeting Britain as “country No 1” because AstraZeneca was not meeting European delivery promises while supplying the government with jabs from its two British factories.

Following her ultimatum Johnson phoned von der Leyen directly on Wednesday evening to ask what was going on, why she had not spoken to him first, and to seek assurances given last month that the UK would get the Pfizer-BioNTech jabs it had paid for.

Officials and diplomats said Germany, France and Italy support the plan to ratchet up the pressure on Britain, which is being blamed for the EU’s slow rollout of jabs.

The three countries’ governments are concerned that their flagging vaccine rollouts amid increased infections and new lockdown restrictions will tear down Germany’s Christian Democrats in the September elections, damage Emmanuel Macron ahead of presidential votes in France next spring and wound Mario Draghi, Italy’s technocrat prime minister.

In return for continued exports the EU hawks are demanding “reciprocal and proportionate” vaccine exports from the UK’s AstraZeneca factories. This would require the pharmaceutical company to honour its European contract by reneging on its commitments to the government, which funded the vaccine’s development.

“I support the announcements made by the president of the European Commission and the decisions taken to require all laboratories to honour the orders on which they have committed themselves with the Europeans and in particular to demand reciprocity,” Macron said on Wednesday.

On the other side are countries including Ireland, the Netherlands, Poland, Sweden and Belgium who fear that export bans to Britain will severely damage their economies as well as unleash an unprecedented conflict in peacetime.

The EU is escalating vaccine tensions at a time when European governments have stockpiled 18.5 million doses that are going unused, of which 7.2 million are made by AstraZeneca. “This is not rational,” said one EU diplomat opposed to export bans. “It will not end well.”

The doves warn that stopping shipments under contract or seizing production would tear down the international supply chains that Europe’s pharmaceutical industry is built on.

One diplomat said that Pfizer’s supplies of vaccine, with 200 million EU doses expected by the end of June, would quickly grind to a halt if British factories making it were disrupted by what would quickly become tit-for-tat export bans.

“It would be like that moment in Reservoir Dogs. If the EU pulls the trigger everyone’s guns go off and we are all dead,” a diplomatic source said.

Are you serious when you say "Don't you have your own country to take care of? Your own issues? Why still deal with the issues of a community you don't belong to anymore?" - the EU are causing us issues which are obliged to deal with.

Northernsoulgirl45 · 19/03/2021 17:46

Over 40s will be called for vaccines this month304
01/03/2021 09:53LacyEdge

Reasons to be cheerful, March edition: According to the Telegraph, aka the Tory intranet, 40s vaccination is a couple of weeks away, and right on target: www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/03/01/over-40s-covid-vaccines-rollout-track-begin-month/ (paywall, but the headline says it all)

Good news for those of us in our prime (cough ahem)

Pastanred · 19/03/2021 17:48

That article is from 1st March before latest updates

Northernsoulgirl45 · 19/03/2021 17:50

@donewithitalltodayandxmas saw it on the above thread.

Northernsoulgirl45 · 19/03/2021 17:51

I know but I was replying to a poster who said they hadn't seen anything about it.

donewithitalltodayandxmas · 19/03/2021 18:34

@Northernsoulgirl45 so nothing from the actual government, plus things can change all the time , we are still on target overall

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