Do you think roadmap will go as planned?

[HforHavana]

Obviously Boris has stressed that these are only guidelines and are subject to change at any given time.
What are your thoughts? Do you think it will go as planned? Maybe a few push backs along the way which pushes us back a month or 2? Or do you think it's unrealistic and we will still be in this situation at the end of the year?

I think April 12th changes will happen but not so confident about the ones after that being on the earliest dates specified.

@Waxonwaxoff0

The difference between now and Christmas is that we are getting hundreds of thousands of people vaccinated every day now! What are people not getting about that? It's not the same situation.

They don't want the solution. A lot of people don't want normal, they want this life to continue.

I can't believe that even the most dramatic and stubborn pessimistic can find this life preferable. That is a really depressing thought.

But you have to wait until the second vacine to confidently say you are protected. Then I think we will have to have regular boosters Also if there is a new variant of the virus, it might be too strong for the vacine to cope with and then we will need a stronger vacine and then another variant and a stronger vacine and so all these stronger and stronger vacines will eventually cause damage to our bodies.

How did the panemic start in the first place? I am still not sure. We certainly did not have this four years ago

No you don't, you can assume high levels of protection from a single dose of the vaccine, especially when you look to indicators like serious illness and mortality. Look at the reduced rates of hospitalisations in Scotland. There are maginal gains in protection following the second dose but it offers more longevity.

I can't imagine anyone is finding this life preferable, so that's a silly thing to say.

Being realistic and not expecting this government to be able to deliver the magical summer people think will happen is sensible.

@Waxonwaxoff0

The difference between now and Christmas is that we are getting hundreds of thousands of people vaccinated every day now! What are people not getting about that? It's not the same situation.

Exactly

I've read it on here and elsewhere "we've been here before and didn't learn then!"

This time we're in the midst of vaccinations, surely that's a huge difference!

@FourTeaFallOut

I can't believe that even the most dramatic and stubborn pessimistic can find this life preferable. That is a really depressing thought.

You can tell who definitely doesn't prefer it because we're the ones who want to do it right this time and not make the same stupidly over-optimistic, reality-denying mistakes all over again.

Third time's the charm!

Or we can refuse to learn any lessons, and do this whole cycle another few more times for another year, and thousands more British people will die.

Why will it need to be stronger?

Don’t they just change the position of the spiky things on the virus?

You and I won't agree princessnutsnuts - there's nothing realistic about minimising the potential of vaccines and pretending that we are stuck with the same cases:hospitalisation:deaths ratios we were saddled with before now.

@FourTeaFallOut

You and I won't agree princessnutsnuts - there's nothing realistic about minimising the potential of vaccines and pretending that we are stuck with the same cases:hospitalisation:deaths ratios we were saddled with before now.

We don't know what those ratios will be outside lockdown but SAGE don't seem to think covid is over so neither do I.

We do know that ignoring the R number, pretending that cases don't matter, and allowing high prevalence to build is how we get new variants because last summer is how we got the current variants of concern.

And we do know that in June millions of people won't have had any vaccine yet, and millions will only have had the first jab.

And we do know that the government is ignoring what SAGE recommended. AGAIN.

So I don't have the child-like faith in the vaccines that some people have.

But I look forward to all the same "Covid is Over" posts that we had last summer.

Be as rude as you like, it won't change anything. It's nothing to me.

I just think remember the Christmas shambles.

This article below is quite good on the vaccines and their efficacy. As they keep saying, vaccination is unfortunately not a silver bullet that will make this go away in a few weeks.

The other thing is that while it's great that 18M people have had their first jab, that's about a quarter of the population and they are not yet fully vaccinated. Only about half a million people are, or approaching 1% of the population. Pretty soon they will have to stop giving people their first dose in order to give those 18M their second. We have a way to go yet.

www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/pfizer-vaccine-vs-oxford-astrazeneca-moderna-covid-jabs-difference-compared/

Yes actually I think the plan will roughly be met. Subject to a new variant giving us a little more grip. However even then one way or another we will open up again as planned.

The thing they won't commit on is wearing masks and social distancing. Plus foreign travel. They really don't know for sure and are just hoping at this stage. That is what I can't be sure about as well.

I have predicted just about everything else right so far since March. Which means I have a good track record. No idea why Whitty hasn't got me on a phone hotline.

@FourTeaFallOut

Be as rude as you like, it won't change anything. It's nothing to me.

Here I will lend you my kitten ❤

@PrincessNutNuts

i asked a question earlier which was not answered. How did this pandemic start? I think it came from Hong Kong? I wonder how they feel knowing they caused all this?

@Flute56

i asked a question earlier which was not answered. How did this pandemic start? I think it came from Hong Kong? I wonder how they feel knowing they caused all this?

No one knows for sure @Flute56.

There's a lot of received wisdom that people think they "know". But we don't yet.

@HforHavana

Obviously Boris has stressed that these are only guidelines and are subject to change at any given time. What are your thoughts? Do you think it will go as planned? Maybe a few push backs along the way which pushes us back a month or 2? Or do you think it's unrealistic and we will still be in this situation at the end of the year?

Nah. The moment he said no reversals he gave it away. No-one but no-one can guarantee this. To be fair he's true to form, playing to the gallery as per fucking usual.

Well look, Truly and FourTea, I haven't supported any of the plans so far from "80% of us are going to get it, and 1% of us are going to die," " Many families are going to lose a loved one before their time" to date.

I don't even support the way they're doing the vaccine rollout. I'd prefer that the most vulnerable had the most protection we could give them as soon as we could give it to them rather than make them wait three months for it while thousands of them get covid, get seriously ill and die.

But maybe this new plan is the one I'm wrong on?

Maybe the government will release clear indicators of when it will be safe to proceed with each stage of the open up?

And maybe they won't ignore them like last year?

Maybe Rishi Sunak won't be stupid enough to spend taxpayers money spreading the virus in another Eat Out To Spread Covid?

Maybe we won't have to have Lockdown 4?

Maybe I will be dancing my completely un-vaccinated arse off in a night club in June?

Let's see, shall we?

A new covid variant from Brazil has now been discovered in the UK and there are 6 cases. I wonder if that will set us back to square one and a new lockdown

@Flute56

A new covid variant from Brazil has now been discovered in the UK and there are 6 cases. I wonder if that will set us back to square one and a new lockdown

Yeah course it will

I don't trust BJ one bit. My gut feeling told me not to listen to any of his promises - I've been let down too many times before by allowing myself to believe in his lies. Summer holidays and Christmas cancelled are examples of the biggest disappointments that we'd never have booked had we not been encouraged to. So I won't be doing it again.

This time - I haven't even looked at this mapped out plan. I have no idea when we're meant to be allowed to do what because I'm convinced it won't happen - and I won't believe it until it does.

This Brazil variant though ... maybe they knew this was coming. Perhaps they put the road map out there to momentarily lift our spirits before they were predictably crushed again.