Do you think roadmap will go as planned?

[HforHavana]

Obviously Boris has stressed that these are only guidelines and are subject to change at any given time.
What are your thoughts? Do you think it will go as planned? Maybe a few push backs along the way which pushes us back a month or 2? Or do you think it's unrealistic and we will still be in this situation at the end of the year?

No I fully expect delays. Can’t see us getting to level four.
Will be interested to see what happens to rates in schools albeit not sure how accurate they will be with the Easter holidays.
I just hope we can have a summer similar to last year.

If the vaccine data continues to be as promising as it has been thus far I don't see why it would slip. It's not comparable to last year and Christmas. I think this whole situation is just showing people's true colours, optimistic or pessimist, and some just down right love the misery.

Given that the plan is an acceptance of significant rise in hospitalisation and death (despite vaccination) whatever you do and whenever you do it - what constitutes failure in relation to pandemic response when morbidity and mortality no longer count? If you can't measure failure, how do you measure success? Change the goalposts?

I would love to know what Chris Whitty thinks..I feel he wanted a much more cautious approach to schools opening but has had to keep quiet...

I am just not expecting anything until it happens.

But I think we will probably be ok up to a point to mixing outside.

@KeepOnKeepingOnAgainandAgain I think so - there will be a level of hospitalisations and deaths that will be “acceptable” from Covid.

The whitster himself said the other day that 10-20 thousand flu deaths happen each year as a matter of course

@KeepOnKeepingOnAgainandAgain

Given that the plan is an acceptance of significant rise in hospitalisation and death (despite vaccination) whatever you do and whenever you do it - what constitutes failure in relation to pandemic response when morbidity and mortality no longer count? If you can't measure failure, how do you measure success? Change the goalposts?

Like there’s an acceptance of deaths and hospitalisations from flu etc?

No.

And the cynic in me thinks they are only doing this because the elderly Tory voters have been vaccinated and protected. Everyone else is collateral damage now.

No because schools are going back Big Bang. I think it will slip by a couple of months. And I hope the majority continue to follow the rules

It depends on when the NHS gets overwhelmed again.

@Dustyboots not if but 'when'

Do you have a crystal ball?

Or say 'sadly' 'I'm afraid' 'unfortunately'

I think it will happen, because the government know the majority won’t comply if not. I think they’ve been cautious with the no mixing inside for three more months. Who’s going to comply if they push that back further? I certainly wouldn’t.

You’ll have to if the NHS gets overwhelmed again. How will you have a choice Racoon?

@Dustyboots

You’ll have to if the NHS gets overwhelmed again. How will you have a choice Racoon?

I’d choose to see my family and friends anyway (as would they, as they’ve already said). I accept I wouldn’t be able to go into pubs or shops if they were closed but I’m not too worried about that.

Lol

I think with the amount of hokey cokeying we had last year AND at the start of January with the opening of Primary School’s shit show, I’m keeping an open mind.

I am however optimistic because of the vaccine roll out! I’ve booked a mini UK break for August so I HAVE to be looking forward to a brighter future!

We shall see.

@tiredmum2468 that made me chuckle!

@crazybutkind

No I don't think it will. Boris knows how fed up everyone is and is telling us what we want to hear. Just my opinion

Completely agree! It’s just some respite for a little while again and to boost the economy in my opinion.

I just wait and see. In theory it sounds good but maybe not in practice

School has the potential to be a mess again with isolating bubbles. I've booked a haircut, an Easter break, a summer break and a eurotunnel ticket. So, fingers crossed.

I guess we'll find a level of deaths that are acceptable. Last April I read MD in Private Eye, who has been pretty much a voice of reason - he was saying that 50,000 deaths of flu is a bad year, but would barely make the news. I decided that until there were 50k deaths I'd not be too horrified. I'm pretty horrified now, but I guess that we'll be accepting 50k covid deaths in a winter season. Especially if flu takes a back seat.

The Sage papers that were published the other day were not exactly optimistic about opening up the lockdown, even with the vaccines, so that's a bit of a worry.

Sage are not paid to be optimistic. That's not their job. If they were being upbeat and jolly about it all they would be failing their primary function.

It would be like MI5 providing an assessment of national security threats and going, "yeah, actually, it's probably going to be fine, we're not worried". You'd be like, "Excuse me, it's your fucking job to worry".

Yes perhaps I shouldn't have used that word.

What I mean is, they forecast that if things opened up at the end of April, there would be a fourth wave and the number of deaths would double. And this, which is not exactly a ringing endorsement of the road map. They think that things are still quite precarious, even with the vaccines.

Relaxation of a significant number of restrictions over three months starting from the beginning of April could lead to hospital occupancy higher than the January peak whereas relaxation over nine months would result in a much smaller peak.

(That last para is Sage, not me.)