Do you think roadmap will go as planned?

[HforHavana]

Obviously Boris has stressed that these are only guidelines and are subject to change at any given time.
What are your thoughts? Do you think it will go as planned? Maybe a few push backs along the way which pushes us back a month or 2? Or do you think it's unrealistic and we will still be in this situation at the end of the year?

I’d rather have the four horsemen of the apocalypse round for tea than a member of SAGE.

Dd2 said straight after the news on Monday that ‘we won’t be having a summer then’, as in cases will go high and then they’ll be able to justify keeping us in lockdown.

She can see through it and she’s 10.

Mitigation has been bought in to secondary schools, such as testing when going back , masks on inside
Our school already has ventilation and zoned areas to keep year groups apart as much as possible
How did people think we would manage to go and fit hepa filtration into every classroom , I mean thats just unrealistic

While I accept there are few mitigations that you can make in secondary schools - even a rota system would probably cause (even) more work for teachers.But I asked probably 6 months ago on a thread about schools, what realistically do they want to happen.
I know schools have been underfunded for years but I think was never feasible to increase ventilation/make more windows, fit perspex screens and enlarge classrooms or reduce class sizes in every school, in the time frame between xmas and the beginning of March.
However if they could build several nightingale hospitals in a matter of weeks, maybe if they had started in the summer holidays last year (and continued Jan-March) some sort of changes could have happened....although I imagine what's practical in one school wouldnt work in another due to the age, design and layout of the building(s), so more complicated than the hospitals...

The Sage papers that were published the other day were not exactly optimistic about opening up the lockdown, even with the vaccines, so that's a bit of a worry.

This is a worry.

Sage are not paid to be optimistic. That's not their job. If they were being upbeat and jolly about it all they would be failing their primary function.

So you’re trusting BJ over the scientists ... because he’s upbeat ...

I think our biggest threat is a homegrown vaccine resistant variant.

I think this too - but according to posters here scientists have this covered and can create vaccines at speed to manage all variants...

@ThatchersCold

Dd2 said straight after the news on Monday that ‘we won’t be having a summer then’, as in cases will go high and then they’ll be able to justify keeping us in lockdown.

She can see through it and she’s 10.

Did you explain to her that cases will be irrelevant unless they transmit to hospitalisation... which yes there will be some but a tiny amount as the elderly and vulnerable have been vaccinated?

@AledsiPad

Yep, I do. Because, unlike most of MN, I live out in the real world, where people are so lockdown fatigued that there's absolutely no hope of (or need for) compliance once 75%+ of the adult population are vaccinated. It just won't happen. So, yes. The country will open up, broadly in line with the magical dates, and everything will be fine, eventually.

I agree, I've said this before but virtually no one i know irl is complying fully anymore.

No.

I think if they’d published two or three steps they’d gave some chance of things going more or less to plan.

@Randomschoolworker19

No because there still aren't any significant mitigating measures put in place to keep schools safe.All very good getting the children back but means absolutely nothing if we have to close them again in 2 months time. I not only want them open but to stay open.

Yes the vaccine is amazing! However the vast majority of people in schools haven't been vaccinated and neither have the most easiest of solutions been adopted, e.g, masks in all schools, perspex screens for tables, HEPA air filters to improve ventilation, temperature checks on arrival.

You could do more but those would take more time and investment.

I want it to work, I'm praying it does.

Mainly agree with this, but don't think he will close schools again. Getting all kids back on a rota system for a bit may have made the plan achievable - with lower numbers so less of a baseline to spread from and more vaccinated in the community before opened up to all. Doing it this way is madness. And no that does not mean I want lockdown to last forever, have no concept of risk, shouldn't travel by car etc etc. It means just like locking down before things go completely off the charts means less time in lockdown, less impact on economy and health etc, opening all schools for everyone with the numbers this high is madness and pisses over a lot of sacrifices people have made.

@Chatterbox1987 have they actually confirmed that though? As last week they were saying that lockdown won’t end until there are fewer than 1000 cases a day. Which doesn’t seem likely to happen seeing as you can still contract covid with the vaccine, and kids won’t be vaccinated.

Yes but because we're heading into summer, mostly.

I think it'll be a swift reverse along the 'roadmap' in autumn. Some shitty variant will hit and older people will start dying again. They'll have a vaccine or a near vaccine and start rolling it out, but we'll need to lock down till then. Probably with schools far, far too late again and so having to be closed for ages again.

I would be 0% surprised if Boris made the same identical mistakes as before.

Obviously I sincerely hope this isn't true. Wouldn't it be lovely to leave it all behind in the past to become a memory? But I just don't trust our government.

@MistakenAgain

I think our biggest threat is a homegrown vaccine resistant variant.

That's what worries me most too.

@ThatchersCold

Dd2 said straight after the news on Monday that ‘we won’t be having a summer then’, as in cases will go high and then they’ll be able to justify keeping us in lockdown.

She can see through it and she’s 10.

There was a Sky news tweet about sending all the schools back on March 8th and so many of the quote tweets and replies were clearly mainly young people saying " Oh shit. Summer's cancelled, Why don't they learn?!" Then #Lockdown4 trended.

Hang on I'll see if I can find it...

Here it is:

twitter.com/skynews/status/1363621117030711303?s=21

I think the biggest mistake Boris has made is used the word “irreversible”. I know he’s arrogant....but I think he’s going to find these words coming back to bite him on the bum.

As another person said, cases don’t matter anymore, it’s hospitalisation rates and as long as they stay low I hope we will be allowed to return to our normal lives.

I do wonder what will happen in future with regards to positive cases in schools - will classrooms still be sent home for a week and how long is this likely to go on for? It can’t be done indefinitely can it? That level of constant disruption just wouldn’t be manageable.

So you’re trusting BJ over the scientists ... because he’s upbeat ...

No, I didn't say that @Dustyboots. I didn't say that anywhere. I trust the efficacy of the vaccines. I trust the 80% of the population willing to roll up their sleeves to take it. I trust the capacity in the system to deliver it. I trust the seasonal nature of the virus and the wiggle room afforded by better weather ahead. I trust the MHRA. I trust the JCVI. And I'm not a total and utter doomster who crushes hope for entertainment.

@ThatchersCold I'm going to go with Chris Whitty over a 10 year old.

Mostly but I can't imagine large concerts especially indoors going ahead in June, most of the outdoors stuff will though, expecting a lot of testing to happen

Broadly, yes, it will.

The vaccines look good, and very few people are interested in a Zero Covid strategy in this country (thankfully)

Most virologists agree that the virus is probably on its way to becoming a troublesome but manageable hazard. I can live with that.

As long as deaths and hospitalizations are fairly minimal, I am not sure I care much about "cases." The people who are afraid of long covid are welcome to stay indoors for years on end, I guess.

@BlackBrowedAlbatross

The Sage papers that were published the other day were not exactly optimistic about opening up the lockdown, even with the vaccines, so that's a bit of a worry.

That's their job. Worst case scenario modelling. They are Professional Pessimists! They have to be.

And the decisions are ony partially based on SAGE data!

The people who are afraid of long covid are welcome to stay indoors for years on end, I guess. No, they can get their vaccine at some point this year and live normally!

If this is (hopefully) going to be a manageable illness that we have to live with I wonder how/when guidance will change re isolation periods...?
For norovirus, or D and V bugs the patient is generally advised to stay home until 48 hours since last "episode" (although DDs school have no 48 hour rule)
For chicken pox you must stay in for approx a week until spots have dried up.
I imagine there is a quarantine period for measles or mumps but they are more rare, I'm not sure what it is.
But all of the above only apply to the patient themselves (often with a small child, a parent may often be confined inside by default) but not their household, family, classmates, work colleagues etc...

Probably not exactly - but this was about not overwhelming the NHS.

What else can we do - stay in??? No.

@ringringdia this article was published last week.

www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.independent.co.uk/news/health/covid-lockdown-lifted-daily-cases-b1803218.html%3famp

How do you propose we will get to under 1000 cases a day when all schoolchildren are back at school en masse and secondary pupils are being tested twice a week, on top of all the other testing that’s going on?

I believe Boris is telling people what they want to hear but can’t see any of it actually happening.

Just read that Israel is undergoing a new wave as so many people have not taken up the jab.