Do you think roadmap will go as planned?

[HforHavana]

Obviously Boris has stressed that these are only guidelines and are subject to change at any given time.
What are your thoughts? Do you think it will go as planned? Maybe a few push backs along the way which pushes us back a month or 2? Or do you think it's unrealistic and we will still be in this situation at the end of the year?

"Coronavirus (COVID-19) latest insights - Office for National Statistics" www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights

Looks like vaccine confidence has improved over the last few months, ONS data suggests 91% of our population are happy to get the jab.

@ThatchersCold we can't and won't live like this indefinitely.

Case numbers won't matter much longer - once people are vaccinated, only hospitalisations will. As Chris Whitty has said - people will still die. It will just be at a level that the NHS can cope with and we will have to live with the level of deaths.

Lockdown is simply to protect the NHS for being overwhelmed not to protect us on an individual level.

Regarding the 1000 cases a day idea, I don't believe that is part of the actual road map, is it? Wasn't that just something that was being speculated in the run up to the announcement?

No, nothing in the road map about 1000 cases that I recall.

*That's their job. Worst case scenario modelling. They are Professional Pessimists! They have to be.

And the decisions are ony partially based on SAGE data!*

It's pretty clear that this decision is not even partially based on SAGE data, given that they are warning of the consequences of opening up over three months from April and the govt have announced it anyway. IIRC, they warned against opening up in December, the govt did it anyway, and thousands of people died in the following weeks. So call me old-fashioned but I would prefer it if govt policy was actually endorsed by their scientific advisors.

No. There will be changes. Nothing with this fucking virus has gone as we hoped so far. Hopefully nothing too major but I think it will be later than June and not sure we'll ever get complete normal back for a couple of years yet. This summer will be amazing though compared to what has become.our shitty normal.
One this with Covid you can ALWAYS bank on is that it will fuck up anything planned in advance.

I expect huge steps back come the autumn and I dread totally hink what Xmas and next winter looks like but I'm not expecting normal.

@InsaneLockdowner 'dread to think what next winter will be like' and huge steps backs come autumn.

Do you think the vaccines will make no difference?

How can they keep vaccinated people locked down? They'll need some serious scare tactics. Otherwise they'll close things, damage the economy further and people will mix anyway.

The only people that don't think this coming to an end are on MN.

How can they keep vaccinated people locked down?

This could be a big issue - I think compliance with lockdown has been partly down to people's fears for their own health and the health of their loved ones. They may not be as interested in "protecting the NHS" after all this time if they personally feel safe.

No it wasn’t mentioned in the roadmap as Boris wanted to keep it all jolly and positive and optimistic to keep people on side. But seeing as members of the cabinet, not random obscure scientists, said it only last week I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the 1000 cases a day thing is used as a reason not to open everything up.

@BlackBrowedAlbatross

*That's their job. Worst case scenario modelling. They are Professional Pessimists! They have to be.

And the decisions are ony partially based on SAGE data!*

It's pretty clear that this decision is not even partially based on SAGE data, given that they are warning of the consequences of opening up over three months from April and the govt have announced it anyway. IIRC, they warned against opening up in December, the govt did it anyway, and thousands of people died in the following weeks. So call me old-fashioned but I would prefer it if govt policy was actually endorsed by their scientific advisors.

That's the point I was making. SAGE offers it's data and the government makes its decisions based on that and other information. They have been at odds very often.

You can cavil as much as you want about the mechanism. It won't please many people, whilst delighting others. But changes have to be made and we have to accept that there will be more deaths, we can't stay locked down for much longer and we have to just get on with it.

Speaking as an 55 year old with underlying health issues, still waiting for my jab, I will be going out more, sensibly. And I look forward to the unlocking of the economy and a slow walk into a more normal life.

I expect huge steps back come the autumn and I dread totally hink what Xmas and next winter looks like but I'm not expecting normal

Why? Nearly Everyone will be vaccinated, and the new vaccines for new strains, like they do with the flu already being rolled out, that’s estimates sept. Do you know something everyone else doesn’t? Or do you think the vaccines aren’t effective?

I actually do, yes. In fact, I think things might be brought forward.

And I look forward to the unlocking of the economy and a slow walk into a more normal life.

That's good for you. I guess it depends on how many deaths are acceptable, which will be different for everyone, and whether you mind if the NHS is entirely taken up with treating COVID patients for longer and we end up in lockdown 4.

Personally if Sage are suggesting that the govt's plan could lead to more people in hospital than at the January peak, that means it's not quite right. I would prefer something slower so that NHS waiting lists (and staff) can start to recover and we can maybe avoid more lockdowns. I am not worried about myself at all, I work from home and I'm having a second dose of the vaccine next week. But just thinking about the economic fall out, the cost to people's health (mental and physical, COVID and non-COVID), education and livelihoods if that were to happen.

Next year I will have DC in Y13 and Y11. I would really like them to spend all of next year in school, even if that means slowing the roadmap so that it takes until September instead of June.

ThatchersCold, so you think that we won't be able to unlock unless we get fewer than 1000 cases and your dd thinks that we will be awash so many cases that we'll have to lock down in the summer? You have covered all your bases for hopelessness in your house, don't you?

I really hope so! But I cant see how it can because we are not all vaccinated and there are new strains about. I think we could have done but with for instance this new SA strain, one child going into school with that, passing it onto other pupils all waiting for their LFT is going to cause a big problem?

I have things booked -a festival to go too so I sincerely hope so I am not a lock down lover or a doom monger but I cant see how it will work with the all back on one day BOOM school strategy?

Nicely clipped. And I included the info on my age and health so you'd know I am one of the vulnerable.

But like our esteemed journalists you weren't interested in the full picture. Just the soundbite!

Pshaw!

I'm pretty sure we've exceeded SAGE's reasonable worst case all the way though.

So when SAGE say that of all the scenarios they modelled led to a second wave except for opening up slowly and carefully over 9 months...

But our Prime Minister is opening the schools with a bang in March and says we'll be nightclubbing in June...

The experience of the past year - where the Prime Minister's optimism has been consistently wrong, and SAGE have been consistently right - tells me there is no realistic cause for optimism right now.

That and the fact that the criteria for opening up are so laughably vague.

I felt quite hopeul watching the statement from Boris the other day and then a friend of mine said she does not beliee anything he says. I tried to convince her by saying Boris knows things are far from perect but the fiures show that things are moving in the right direction. She just laughed and said she fully expects we will have another lockdown

@Flute56 People who believe the worst often assume they are smarter or in possession of some sort of extra knowledge.

I think it's a coping mechanism, people are worn down.

Vaccines should prevent any further lockdowns or what's the point?!

I dunno. People were saying Christmas mixing would cause another lockdown, and it did. I'm not surprised people have lost faith in the government and don't believe a word they say.

Once everyone is fully vaccinated, and we are 6 months down the line, are we still going to have to test if we have symptoms and isolate etc?

I dunno. People were saying Christmas mixing would cause another lockdown, and it did. I'm not surprised people have lost faith in the government and don't believe a word they say.

@Stellaris22 - What you say is blindingly simple and blindingly obvious. Yet so many people are unable to see this.

The difference between now and Christmas is that we are getting hundreds of thousands of people vaccinated every day now! What are people not getting about that? It's not the same situation.

No!
This has huge potential to be Christmas in repeat imo
(Not rtt btw)