Do you think roadmap will go as planned?

[HforHavana]

Obviously Boris has stressed that these are only guidelines and are subject to change at any given time.
What are your thoughts? Do you think it will go as planned? Maybe a few push backs along the way which pushes us back a month or 2? Or do you think it's unrealistic and we will still be in this situation at the end of the year?

2 words...remember vaccines.

Mitigation has been bought in to secondary schools, such as testing when going back , masks on inside
Our school already has ventilation and zoned areas to keep year groups apart as much as possible
How did people think we would manage to go and fit hepa filtration into every classroom , I mean thats just unrealistic
Primaries can hopefully have more outside time if weather improves
Some people are just never happy

Broadly, yes.

Vaccine + summer = good times :)

I'm already seeing people assuming life will be completely back to normal on June 21 - I'm naturally cautious and think that, at the very least, there may be some numbers limitations on events/ social distancing going on.

I'd love life to be completely normal, but I also don't want to spend a lot of time and/or money on things that may not be able to happen.

@emmathedilemma

2 words......remember Christmas

We did not have vaccines then. Not a comparable situation.

Interestingly, I suspect the calculation is that people are more likely to follow the rules if they can see the end point? It may not work, but I think it's a decent try. I think they had to learn the lesson of the disaster over Christmas and I think this is an attempt to reset, whilst allowing a really slow pace so that any future disasters can be averted.

I’ve seen two things today.

Cases rising in 60(?) areas of the U.K.
Schools in Italy are closing in some places and they’ve had social distancing and masks in schools. The Kent variant is the reason why. What worked for the first strain isn’t working now. And Boris is opening ALL our schools with no mitigation.

So, l don’t think any of his roadmap will work.

I think so yes, because the vaccine program is so so fast in being rolled out, and the cases and hospitalisations are dropping quickly also. I think there will be a push to make it earlier. Than what’s been presented. I don’t think thr government will bow to it, but unless there is a significant event, then I’d say yes it’s going to hit plan.

I think that the combination of vaccines and better weather will mean that much of it will go to plan. There may be niggles but, given the current data, public compliance rates and Covax coming on line and positively affecting the wider world, we could see most restrictions gone by this autumn/winter.

I do think that there will be any number if smaller restrictions, masks, 2 metres, the introduction of yearly shots for a few years, etc. Things that will stay with us this winter and beyond. And I would expect very large gatherings to be closely monitored, foreign travel etc to be monitored, restricted in some ways, depending on many factors.

But mainly I think that this should be relatively realistic, barring utter distasted obviously.

Why wouldn't it be? Specifically...

The thing is cases can rocket with the return of schools but it doesn’t matter (broadly to society) if they don’t convert to hospitalisations.

The vast majority of hospital admissions are in the over 70s who have (largely) been vaccinated.

This is a different ballgame with two highly effective vaccines being rolled out at the rate of knots. You need to change your yardstick.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

I’ve seen two things today.

Cases rising in 60(?) areas of the U.K.
Schools in Italy are closing in some places and they’ve had social distancing and masks in schools. The Kent variant is the reason why. What worked for the first strain isn’t working now. And Boris is opening ALL our schools with no mitigation.

So, l don’t think any of his roadmap will work.

It’s really not about cases now, it’s about hospitalisations. And cases are over all going down.

In addition italy has only done 3.2 million vaccines versus the uk at 18.2.

It’s not about eradicating Covid. It’s never been about that, it’s about making it something we can live with. And when the vulnerable are vaccinated, and we are not there yet, but will be in a few weeks, then the illness rate will be very very low.

Jeez what a depressing post ... lockdowns can't go on so something has to give more and more people losing jobs losing their mental health so there will be massive civil unrest as people are getting angry !

@AledsiPad

Yep, I do. Because, unlike most of MN, I live out in the real world, where people are so lockdown fatigued that there's absolutely no hope of (or need for) compliance once 75%+ of the adult population are vaccinated. It just won't happen. So, yes. The country will open up, broadly in line with the magical dates, and everything will be fine, eventually.

This

I don't think it will work, no.

Cases may not 'matter,' but they will when schools are sending classes home left, right and centre to isolate.

Chaos not knowing if your child will need picking up / can go to school tomorrow.

If numbers rise steeply do we think he will just open regardless?

I think the reality of that still needs to sink into real life thinking. We've been told it for a year but will now have to look at schools and accept what it actually means.

Infection rates that do not translate to hospitalisation is acceptable. It always has been. It will continue not be as that is how we will get businesses back open, the economy started across all sectors.

But they aren’t all vaccinated yet. And that is the point. Kids will be mingling with older parents and the spread goes on.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

I’ve seen two things today.

Cases rising in 60(?) areas of the U.K.
Schools in Italy are closing in some places and they’ve had social distancing and masks in schools. The Kent variant is the reason why. What worked for the first strain isn’t working now. And Boris is opening ALL our schools with no mitigation.

So, l don’t think any of his roadmap will work.

Cases don't matter now, what matters are hospital rates. And Italy haven't done anywhere near the amount of vaccinations that we have.

They will go to plan right up to the local elections so that people will vote Tory and they may well falter after that!

He has tried to appease us before the May elections and Cheltenham Races which is coming up. Holidays abroad will be allowed in June otherwise I think the public would not be happy especially when Davros G7 summit is happening in June. The leak their intended plans to the press anyway to gage public reaction, corrupt evil con artists who should be in jail.

But many will be, more every week. The most vulnerable have been in enough numbers to make a measurable difference.

Isolation because of infection will stop, eventually, we'll just live with it, vaccinating those who need it with yearly boosters.

As pp said, your yardstick has to change now!

I’m cautiously optimistic, we can’t do this forever. It may be slightly delayed but I’m hopeful things will be very different by August.

ArseInTheCoOpWindow

But they aren’t all vaccinated yet. And that is the point. Kids will be mingling with older parents and the spread goes on

But it won’t matter if people aren’t going to hospital 🤷‍♀️

Also cautiously optimistic.

The eldest and ECV are moving towards 2nd vaccines, the numbers on first vaccines are amazing. These 2 facts alone are going to go huge ways to mitigate the risks.

We are moving into spring, the time of year that respitory illnesses usually start to fall.

And the opening timetable seems very cautious and steady.

Masks in secondary schools and regualr lateral flow tests will help in schools greatly.

And the vaccination programme will continue through all of this.

So yes, very cautiously optimistic.

@MrsFrisbyMouse

Also cautiously optimistic.

The eldest and ECV are moving towards 2nd vaccines, the numbers on first vaccines are amazing. These 2 facts alone are going to go huge ways to mitigate the risks.

We are moving into spring, the time of year that respitory illnesses usually start to fall.

And the opening timetable seems very cautious and steady.

Masks in secondary schools and regualr lateral flow tests will help in schools greatly.

And the vaccination programme will continue through all of this.

So yes, very cautiously optimistic.

Masks will do bugger all. Lateral flow tests are almost as useless.

When we ran the DFE helpline to get advice about isolating contacts last term they actually said ' doesn't matter if you were wearing a mask.' One member of staff was. Still sent home.

Shall I pass you a shovel.

I'm sure you'll find a soft patch of ground somewhere, all this rain and all.

Remember to take a lid with you!