Do you think roadmap will go as planned?

[HforHavana]

Obviously Boris has stressed that these are only guidelines and are subject to change at any given time.
What are your thoughts? Do you think it will go as planned? Maybe a few push backs along the way which pushes us back a month or 2? Or do you think it's unrealistic and we will still be in this situation at the end of the year?

No. I'm living my life as I see fit from end of March anyway, as otherwise I can see this dragging on endlessly, not least for those of us who won't be vaccinated (as we aren't eligible yet to be invited) and therefore won't get a vaccine passport so aren't "allowed" to go anywhere.

Fuck it.

Yes, broadly. There is no reason that it shouldn't.

I think (and hope) stages 1 -3 will go as planned, maybe with only a few weeks' delay.

No way to stage 4 though, I just can't see the review into social distancing (inc WFH) concluding that it will be possible to scrap the 2/1m+ rule/masks/other mitigations as early as this summer without overwhelming hospitals. Hardly any scientists think it will be possible to stop SD until 2022- www.newscientist.com/article/2268030-face-masks-needed-in-the-uk-until-2022-says-poll-of-disease-experts/

I have a sense we'll get as far as Stage 3 and then we might get a bit stuck before the final step.

For the most part, yes.

I think people are forgetting that lockdowns were only ever to stop the NHS getting overwhelmed, not to stop young healthy people catching Covid.

It doesn't matter if cases rise as long as they don't result in too many hospitalizations. I think that's pretty obvious from what's been said.

I think the first 3 stages will happen, stage 3 may end up being slightly delayed, but I can't see the grand reopening happening in June though. Those talking about cases rising, surely we will reach the point where cases don't really matter, but how many of those convert into hospital addmissions? As more and more people are vaccinated, there may still be cases, and these may well go up, but if people don't get seriously ill, I can't see how it will affect things.

Generally, I feel quite optimistic.

It doesn't matter if cases rise as long as they don't result in too many hospitalizations. I think that's pretty obvious from what's been said

^^ this. A million times this.

We cannot have a switch to focusing on cases. Cases aren't the issue.

People need to change their mindsets. Once the vulnerable/old are vaccinated then lockdown should end. The risk to the under 50s unvaccinated is low anyway, cases will be irrelevant as the numbers of asymptotic vaccinated will skew the results. Covid is here to stay, businesses should be allowed to open ASAP, those wanting further restrictions and lockdowns are welcome to impose them on themselves.

@byvirtue

People need to change their mindsets. Once the vulnerable/old are vaccinated then lockdown should end. The risk to the under 50s unvaccinated is low anyway, cases will be irrelevant as the numbers of asymptotic vaccinated will skew the results. Covid is here to stay, businesses should be allowed to open ASAP, those wanting further restrictions and lockdowns are welcome to impose them on themselves.

This !!!!

@crazybutkind

No I don't think it will. Boris knows how fed up everyone is and is telling us what we want to hear. Just my opinion

This,

I don't mind if there are slips, I am expecting it. however with the vaccine program going well at the moment I am feeling more optimistic than I have had for a long time.

I think 1-2 will happen but the rest will take us another year.

All of Boris’ other timescales have slipped without repercussion and I think this will too.

I think it will be broadly in line with what’s set out. I think there will be indoor mixing in may. Mass gatherings with no restrictions in June may be put back but day to day life will be far more normal.

I think it would be ridiculous if it didn't follow the dates as there is starting to be seen a clear seasonality with Covid. Last summer cases were minimal and I don't believe this was down to restrictions. If Boris delays everything opening up to late July/ August then I honestly believe we'd miss the best part of the year to mix as then we'll be back into autumn/winter again as well as being further away from the most vulnerable people having been vaccinated.

@HalfShrunkMoreToGo, I hope for your sake and others in your area it really works

@Mummabeary

I think it would be ridiculous if it didn't follow the dates as there is starting to be seen a clear seasonality with Covid. Last summer cases were minimal and I don't believe this was down to restrictions. If Boris delays everything opening up to late July/ August then I honestly believe we'd miss the best part of the year to mix as then we'll be back into autumn/winter again as well as being further away from the most vulnerable people having been vaccinated.

Yes in some ways it may be better to open up earlier in the summer and deal with the rise in hospitalisations (which all the SAGE modelling scenarios show is inevitable even with vaccines) instead of later in the year with added winter pressures -flu may come back later this year too. We could then go into winter with even more vaccination coverage/natural immunity.

I genuinely believe that most of the road map will go to plan. The only thing I can't see working is the opening of nightclubs and mass sporting events/concerts - It's just ridiculously optimistic. I think we're going to be expected to socially distance into next year, so I can see WFH carrying on as a pay off for opening up most everything else. I'm happy to be proved wrong though and for everything to be completely back to normal by 1 July.

Regarding cases rising in some areas now and cases inevitably rising once kids go back to school, that won't effect the stages unless those cases turn into hospital admissions.

It's still not ideal, as the more cases there are, the more chance we'll have more mutations, but I think that's something the government has realised they need to risk and compromise on.

Do I think it will go to plan? I bloody hope so! I'm starting to feel a little lighter the past few days and it's a good feeling.

I could handle some bumps in the road and small delays, but major set backs or heaven forbid, a return into lockdown? I'm not sure there are many people who take that again.

Yup, not because he has planned it.

But because he let millions get infected in December and January.

It will be quite obvious in the next week or so, if the current levels in hospitals continue to fall through the floor.

I really do. I'm a bit concerned that now restrictions are being lifted more of the rule breakers will come out and ruin it for the rest of us.

Nightclubs are right at the end, but given it's mainly 18+/early 20s that go, I'd like to see them having the option of vaccination before.

I think it will probably be about right. Maybe a delay to nightclubs etc but otherwise I think it all looks quite sensible. This is the best plan they have come up with since this started - it is realistic and actually balances different perspectives and draws a conclusion. It's almost like leadership.......

Agree with the poster who say that some rise in cases is inevitable and that having that rise in July would be much better than having it in September. Finally, the vaccination programme is already starting to make a difference and the impact of that will only grow. It takes a while to filter through (from the initial three weeks after the first jab when the protection is still low, then the period of time where someone would otherwise have been hospitalise and then the time where they might have died is a period of at least a couple of months in many cases.

Many of those who are sadly dying now were infected around Christmas, so it makes sense that, by late April, the situation will be immeasurably better (especially with the additional impact of seasonality)

I think it is broadly about right, as long as we don't tear the pants out of it.

With the vaccinations doing so well I think it sounds like a well thought out plan. We need to at least try. I’m in Manchester and we have been in tier 3 or lockdown for practically the whole time. It’s no way to carry on. I’ve been pretty cautious throughout this but once the majority are vaccinated I’m happy to take my chances.

I hope so, maybe some delays by a few weeks.

I am so scared it won’t be ‘irreversible’ and we’ll be back living with tough restrictions by winter.

Fingers crossed the vaccine will stop that!

It could do if people actually stick to the guidelines , tbf everything he said was earliest dates he gave no guarantees.
We have to hope though don't we and last summer in some places it was not too bad.
With vaccinations going well so far, hopefully these are in our favour as well.

2 words......remember Christmas