Do you think roadmap will go as planned?

[HforHavana]

Obviously Boris has stressed that these are only guidelines and are subject to change at any given time.
What are your thoughts? Do you think it will go as planned? Maybe a few push backs along the way which pushes us back a month or 2? Or do you think it's unrealistic and we will still be in this situation at the end of the year?

Nope. It will probably start off ok then start slipping.

@Missfelipe

No chance. You only have to look on here to see the plans to not adhere to the rules once schools return...

Even before schools return judging by some posts but it will get worse.

We have seen the impact of large gatherings has on spread and combined with rule breaking I think we will get to the end March one, maybe April and then be back where we started.

But the hospitals are full of 50 year old. It’s not about deaths, it’s about capacity. And it’s the unvaccinated age group who are going to be affected when schools go back.

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

But the hospitals are full of 50 year old. It’s not about deaths, it’s about capacity. And it’s the unvaccinated age group who are going to be affected when schools go back.

Do you have a link to that stat?

@ArseInTheCoOpWindow

But the hospitals are full of 50 year old. It’s not about deaths, it’s about capacity. And it’s the unvaccinated age group who are going to be affected when schools go back.

Are they? My mum works at a major hospital with Covid patients and the majority of them are elderly.

@Waxonwaxoff0

For the most part, yes.

I think people are forgetting that lockdowns were only ever to stop the NHS getting overwhelmed, not to stop young healthy people catching Covid.

It doesn't matter if cases rise as long as they don't result in too many hospitalizations. I think that's pretty obvious from what's been said.

Totally this

I think there might be a bit of a tweak on the dates, but roughly we'll get there

ArseInTheCoOpWindow

But the hospitals are full of 50 year old. It’s not about deaths, it’s about capacity. And it’s the unvaccinated age group who are going to be affected when schools go back.

Data please?

How long do we wait for data before we post the latest stats?

Asking cos I am on my phone and may well lose the nice up to date link I currently have open 😁

Post it, don't lose it. Words to live by.

I do think most will go as planned.

Secondary schools won't be straight back on 8th due to testing so that will help things and the Easter break will act as a firebreak.

I think it's more likely after the April 12th opening we may see some slowing if it happens but I also think that'll be dependent on a) the weather which does help and b) how many people move onto the rules before we actually can.

Also I think dependent on the vaccines continuing as they are and the RL data released Monday being accurate in larger numbers.

But I do feel more positive now than I did.

Go on do it @CuriousaboutSamphire

The timetable is to vaccinate all those 50 and over by mid April - hopefully lots of them before then. Schools are going to be in for 2 weeks. And then back home for Easter Break. Which will take us to mid April. Almost lining up with the vaccination programme. Someone might almost think that the scientists of Public Heath England are driving this timetable.

I am no fan of Boris - and I believe the timetable out of this hasn't been driven by him, but by Sage and Public Health England.

@CuriousaboutSamphire

Shall I pass you a shovel.

I'm sure you'll find a soft patch of ground somewhere, all this rain and all.

Remember to take a lid with you!

No thanks.... just being honest and realistic. I'd rather face reality than live in la la land 😊

I don’t think it will be too far off.

But how are we supposed to wear masks in a nightclub? it would defeat the entire point

Oh and I don't believe the hospitals are 'full' of the 50 somethings. But hopefully lessening pressure on NHS will allow any people who need care able to get it.

First stages yes
Nightclubs
Large number sports events
Concerts
no chance by June

I also think the roadmap is very cautious so he doesn’t end up having to not meet it. The vaccine roll out program is making all th difference. If you look at the data it’s a tiny percentage under fifty who end up dying due to this, even less when it’s those who are not classed vulnerable. So logically you’d say we will meet thr timelines.

OK

All hospitalisations, there are 2 age graphs

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsregion&areaName=North%20West

Daily data, scroll down for a nice informative table.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Can't believe I kept both open. I usually click and lose them 😜

I think it will go about as well as it has gone for the last year, with the last plan, or the one before that.

The criteria for opening up is too vague and we know from experience that it won't be adhered to anyway if the ERG have a tantrum.

It might look ok for the first 6-8 weeks or so, because the first 5 week assessment period has a 2 week school holiday in it.

I expect us to hit 200,000 covid deaths by the end of June.

The idea of nightclubbing in June with the inevitable high prevalence seems insane to me.

And I can't imagine other countries wanting to let British people in unless they are also following a high prevalence path.

But most of what this government has said and done this past year has seemed insane to me - but plenty on here seem to like it.

The only confidence I have is that:
*Rishi Sunak will be pushing for another Eat Out To Spread Covid.
*Steve Baker, Charles Walker and their maniacs will lose their shit if the dates are not strictly adhered to no matter what.
*British people will continue to be hospitalised/die of covid in their thousands
*And the virus will continue to mutate.

@PrincessNutNuts you know we have a vaccine yes?

@unmumsymummy21

When he set up the roadmap out of lock down in May last year, it all happened as planned. I'm hopeful it will be the same this time. Especially with the vaccination programme going well.

Christmas didn't happen as he said though. So who knows. But we didn't have vaccines at that time, so that changes things.

I think it will more or less happen as planned. We've already been told to be expected back in the office ! Cannot wait !

@unmumsymummy21 well Johnson also appeared on TV in January advising primary schools to open when there were over 50,000 new cases per day only for him to close them a day later for national lockdown - which doesn't inspire much credibility in his forecasting...

Outside meet ups will definitely be loosened, let's hope the weather is good enough from early spring to enjoy them. Summer was better last year even without vaccines and international quarantines so with those in place it must be better this year.

@CuriousaboutSamphire

OK

All hospitalisations, there are 2 age graphs

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsregion&areaName=North%20West

Daily data, scroll down for a nice informative table.

www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/

Can't believe I kept both open. I usually click and lose them 😜

You can see the slide from the daily briefing here, so if you vaccinate the over fifties and all vulnerable you can see th enormous reduction it would have on hospital admissions and deaths,

Hey @FourTeaFallOut and @ringringdia

Let's not argue, let's make a plan to have some fun and go clubbing in June instead.

I unfortunately think that with uncertainty of the effect of vaccines on transmission and a relatively relaxed hotel quarentine system variants will be a problem. I hope it all goes to plan, we do have the vaccines, the weather and a much improved test and trace on our side.