@eastegg - I completely understand what you're saying and I've been banging on about it over the last few days because if the trends continue, by the time we're into the next phase, risks of catching the virus will be negligible - yesterdays figures in the Guardian were 2,297 positive tests recorded. If that is accurate, the chances of someone coming into contact with an infectious person in a population of around 55 million is pretty small. Let's say though, for the sake of argument those people have infected, before testing positive, 10 people - that's around 22,000.
For the sake of argument, half of them test positive - okay, another 10,000 or so. The other half are either asymptomatic, or don't get a test with symptoms. A proportion of them may - nay probably will - still isolate. Hospitalisations have dropped dramatically, 3,356 in hospital yesterday. 10 deaths yesterday. It seems that high risk environments are much better now.
Whichever way you cut it, even with the new variants, the measures being put in place seem illogical and heavy handed and discriminatory, when they are primarily designed to prevent hospitalisations and deaths. The vaccine appears to be having the desired effect and Lord knows I'm absolutely in favour of keeping the virus in check by proportionate means. Into all this you have to factor in seasonality, which is cited in this article this morning.
www.theguardian.com/theobserver/commentisfree/2021/apr/04/how-is-it-possible-that-the-number-of-deaths-is-now-so-low
It appears that this lockdown, despite the apparent proliferation of alleged 
"Covidiots", has had a significant impact.
Yesterday, because as an independent retailer I'm keeping an eye on 12th April, I tried to find data online about whether schools re-opening is causing an uptick in cases, and I could find virtually nothing. On MN I've seen a few references to bubbles bursting and children having to self isolate, so it would seem the testing regimes, which don't apply in a blanket fashion, plus contact tracing is obviously having a positive effect.
Also in the Guardian we have:
www.theguardian.com/world/2021/apr/05/twice-weekly-lateral-flow-covid-tests-england-lockdown-boris-johnson
Sounds great, doesn't it? But klaxons are sounding. As they should be, they are voluntary, but they also have (according to someone on Sky News which I have on in the background) a quite high error margin. So a negative LFT test before an event might mean a person with an erroneous test result, and asymptomatic, might still be infectious and with 20,000 crammed into a stadium, with the idea that social distancing can be reduced in these settings, statistically, apparently, quite a few will be infectious, and depending on the vulnerability and susceptibility of the person sitting next to you, which appears to be very individual, and because the vaccine doesn't render you completely immune, nor completely stop transmission, and you will have a mix of vaccinated, and not yet eligible for vaccine but with a LFT negative test that may have a high margin error, these densely populated mass events become a testing ground rather than a genuine way of getting us out of lock down safely.
So, we have an underlying potential population wide "Typhoid Mary" scenario going on here, because if you don't know you've been in proximity with an infected person, who may also be asymptomatic, and you haven't been notified to isolate, we still don't have a clear picture of actual cases.
So the idea of variants occurring being the fault (which I have seen stated here on a few threads) of irresponsible mixers, is another psychological stick to beat people with, when, due to the nature of the virus it's now nigh on impossible to pin down who, and why and how, in the wider population. That's not to minimise the successful efforts to contain localised out breaks seen when the new variants popped up.
This all feeds into the fear and confusion model of controlling this virus which has been in place from the beginning.
Whichever way you look at it, the horse has bolted - so many cock ups with T&T, so many fabulous ideas which have faded into obscurity even after huge amounts of money have been poured into them - what DID happen to Operation Moonshot?
And with all this, still seeing our families is the biggest risk, not mass gatherings apparently.
I've stuck to the rules, wearisome as it has become but my brain is a pretzel with trying to keep up, be hopeful, assess personal risk, avoid fines etc etc etc, and now everything that is proposed going forward seems like an exercise in being lead by the nose. I'm even deeply cynical of the numbers - they look so much better - yay - but ooh, what about all the undetected transmission????
It's all very well saying just step away, but I have to keep up as the rules and potential of criminalisation have to be considered.
The government is actually providing a very fertile ground for conspiracy theories too.
It all continues to be an utter clusterfuck.
Now, I try very hard to follow the science, so if anyone wants to pick apart my post as an epidemiologist, or a virologist or whatever relevant qualification, with clear, scientific data that proves I am in some way mentally ill because I'm thinking about it all wrong, I'm totally up for that. I want to know, not feel or believe, but know what is going on going forward, so I can be a responsible citizen. At the same time I'm going to continue being uneasy about civil liberties incursions, because that is also important.
Sorry for the rant, but every new proposal is making me go WTAF? at the moment, as I can't see the logic in half of it.