The government is about to tell you that schools are safe

[noblegiraffe]

It's being reported that the government are about to embark on a two week PR campaign claiming that schools are safe. We've already seen hints of it in that Warwick report that was widely misreported as showing schools don't fuel community transmission (majorly pissing off the author who advocates a cautious return to schools).

The ONS random sampling survey graphs released today are amazing. They show a huge reduction in the infection rates due to lockdown, but the most incredible reduction is in the infection rate of secondary school children. They've gone from being the most infected subset of the population by far, to the 2nd least (behind 70+). It's clear that despite arguments that secondary kids were catching covid out of school (sleepovers, hanging around in parks etc), this just isn't true and the lack of mitigation measures in secondary schools allowed covid to run riot.

We can't re-open in the same way as in September. That would be madness. I know that people will say that it's fine, vulnerable people are being vaccinated and kids don't get it badly BUT what is not acknowledged is that kids aren't being vaccinated, a lot of their teachers won't be by March 8th, nor their parents and so we still need to keep infection levels down. In addition, rampant covid is incredibly disruptive to education. Teachers off for weeks, kids off isolating, some kids in, some kids out...Sept to Dec was a mess that we should be trying our best to avoid repeating. Vaccinations don't address that issue at all.

Community levels are low, but then they were low in September. Pubs, restaurants and non-essential shops are shut now, but we want to be able to open them. We cannot rely on community levels remaining low to stop covid getting into schools and proliferating.

We need to be careful, because certainly secondary schools aren't safe to re-open in a Big Bang gung-ho way that some are advocating, particularly with a more transmissible variant in circulation. Remember to the week before Christmas when school attendance plummeted in Kent and London? In one LA, secondary attendance was at 17%. And yet the DfE decided to threaten schools that wanted to close early to stop the spread with legal action. The schools were right, and the DfE was wrong. Gavin Williamson can't be trusted to have sensible conversations about safety, he's more interested in bully-boy tactics and setting himself up in opposition to teachers and schools.

What can be done? I think there is room to open schools in some way on March 8th. My personal preference (and I'm no spokesperson for teachers here, other opinions will vary) would be primaries back and exam years back for three weeks, then Easter can be used to examine the impact of the full primary re-opening . I'm not sure that school is such a major factor in transmission at primary as it is at secondary for various reasons, however I'm sure that my primary colleagues have their own ideas about what needs to be done there. If full primary re-opening looks untenable, then I would prefer rotas to only certain year groups in. Some school for all pupils would be better than all school for some pupils as we had last year.

Secondary is a different kettle of fish and should be treated separately. Secondaries were a massive risk for transmission. The word 'bubble' should never be used in reference to secondary schools again, as 'bubble' means a group of people who all have to isolate if one of them catches covid, which went in the bin in secondary around the end of September. There are some easy wins in secondary -
Masks in classrooms would be easy and cheap to implement. Exemptions would apply and clear ones could be provided where necessary for lip reading.
A national programme to improve ventilation.
Testing and isolation of any contacts where positive cases are found to flush out asymptomatic pupils (PCR not LFT).
Moving quickly to remote learning where there are outbreaks instead of trying to keep year groups in and schools open as covid works its way through - the attendance just before Christmas in some schools meant kids would have been better served educationally if they were all at home.

Home LFT testing of kids - I'm not convinced tbh, maybe in addition to above measures, but certainly not instead of them.

So if the government messaging is as it has been: schools are safe and no additional measures to contain the spread in secondary are needed then they are lying and our kids deserve a more consistent and sustainable education than they got from September.

Fingers crossed they are more sensible than we have previously seen.

Primary pastoral here with a Y11 child.

In an ideal world I’d bring back KS2 on 8 March as they can be more successfully ‘bubbled’, and in secondary Y10 and Y12 because exams have already been changed for Y11 and 13, so I’d rather see the Y10s and 12s being given the chance to do exams normally next year.

Then an Easter firebreak if needed, with the expectation that all children return afterwards.

@Thunderpunt

Quick question - what is/are the major differences between what you're suggesting (for secondary schools) and what went on in September? The only thing I can see is the masks?

From the OP

• Masks in classrooms would be easy and cheap to implement. Exemptions would apply and clear ones could be provided where necessary for lip reading.

• A national programme to improve ventilation.

• Testing and isolation of any contacts where positive cases are found to flush out asymptomatic pupils (PCR not LFT).

• Moving quickly to remote learning where there are outbreaks

She also mentions LFTs (although saliva based testing might be better for asymptomatic testing, and is already available in some areas.)

I also think that where there are vulnerable family members or vulnerable children they should be allowed home learning till vaccinated twice and there has been time for immunity to develop.

The WHO suggests other options like

• blended learning
• rotas
• local solutions adopting more space
• increase in teaching staff

-outside learning (eg forest schools where possible, in early years)

@Wnikat

Vulnerable teachers have been vaccinated.

You sure about that?

Totally agree.

The fact that it is becoming apparent that the 8th March will be return for all is frightening.

We've been told that all students will get a LFT on the first day back but that's it. Not to mention that all staff have to be testing apart from a few teachers. It's madness and unworkable.

I really really hope they change their minds but sadly I feel they will bend to the pressures of society

Seems to me the only reason secondary age rates are down now is that they're all in bed and have been since Dec (virtuous sporty mumsnet kids possibly exempt). Last year, y10 were prioritised and got summer term return. This year the talk is to prioritise exam years, so y10s missed from March to Sept, half the autumn, all this term... and they have gcses next year. They might get 1-2 full terms, with luck, before they sit mocks. That just seems nuts. So I'd prioritise current y10s and go for some form of rotation in secondaries.

@noblegiraffe

cant the ONS disagrees with REACT about primary infection rates, not sure why. ONS has always shown that primary infection rates didn’t increase in the same way as secondary and were less affected by half term closures so it seemed to me that school wasn’t as big a factor for them (they also have much smaller bubbles and were isolating properly which might help).

In terms of the Hokey Cokey, again, primary school attendance rates were far better than secondary.

The yellow line went mad before Christmas but it’s not entirely clear why.

I am not quite sure what you are saying.

The yellow line went mad because primary children were catching Covid?

The attendance rates are better because of the smaller number who isolated for each case.

The fluctuation for half term is visible in the primary line, and the reason it won't have gone down so quickly is because primary children attend childcare in half term, often in group settings, which will have prevented the decline being as steep, rather than school not being a factor.

Primary children are much less likely to be tested, partly because of parents not wanting to isolate with them and partly because they show different symptoms.

Schools are safe and need to be open.

Y11 DC, would be quite happy with rotas. They are happy with wearing masks in classrooms. Didn't feel happy being at school last term, has thrived this half term with remote provision.

Some of our local Primaries have had bubbles bursting in the last few weeks even with fewer pupils in, and we are in a low rate area.

@Thunderpunt

Quick question - what is/are the major differences between what you're suggesting (for secondary schools) and what went on in September? The only thing I can see is the masks?

I think a massive issue with what went on in secondaries in September-December was that what happened when there was a case was very poorly managed.

Isolation of close contacts only was stupid. The kids could see it was stupid. Spend hours in a classroom with an infected kid but so long as you were two rows in front and not one then you just kept coming in.

A positive case in a child means there are probably asymptomatic cases around them. PCR testing would flush these out. LFT testing isn’t good enough in this scenario (and isn’t proposed anyway from what I can see).

If it becomes obvious that there is an issue in a year group, then we should be more proactive in isolating and stopping the spread. I had to watch covid travel slowly around a year group with kids having to isolate again as soon as they came back and they asked ‘why not send the whole year group home for a fortnight’ to which I had no answer.

We should be more prepared to nip it in the bud.

Primary here.

I am very concerned about the disruption that will come again from multiple isolation periods. My family have done 7 periods between us in the last year and it's awful.

Whatever happens, I believe it needs to be approached cautiously. My personal preference is for rotas so that all children can have some time in school.

I am also concerned with what @dipdips mentioned about elderly people swanning off on Saga holidays. Children and young people have and continue to give up so much to 'keep others safe'.

@Redtulipses

"The government is about to tell you that schools are safe"

And for the vast majority of students and teachers they are safe.

Even if cases do increase, most of the vulnerable people in society will have been vaccinated.

The cost to society of keeping schools closed any longer needs to be considered too.

What do you mean by "safe"?

Because before Christmas, over a 2 week period, the secondary school kids overall had a 1 in 40 chance of having covid (ONS data). This is way over community levels and strongly suggests in school transmission at high levels.

So not "safe" in the sense of avoiding covid transmission in schools. Which is what most people would understand it to mean, in discussing covid in schools.

Or do you mean something else by the word "safe"?

@PurpleHoodie

"The government is about to tell you that schools are safe"

For the majority of children/youth they are: Covid, or otherwise.

And the adults in schools ....

Not to mention children with conditions that make them more at risk, the families they go home too, the rule breaking as some people don’t see the need to follow rules if schools are open and the community transmission as parents and relatives go into workplaces etc

can we stop blaming every older person for swanning off on holiday? We simply are not & have no intension of having any overseas holiday for the foreseeable! I remember a number of mn saying in summer they were determined to go on holiday asap & they certainly weren't oap from the sound of thing. & how many people complained after that they were trapped & had to do 2 weeks in isolation.
However a lot of these firms are selling the idea of free transfer of dates & ALL travel companies for all ages are sending adverts out (my email is full of them) because they are desperate. Please don't conflagrate the two separate issues & generalize how a group would act. Personally we have been isolating from our family & would love to help but it isn't safe

Teachers off for weeks, kids off isolating, some kids in, some kids out...Sept to Dec was a mess
I agree with this. My DC had to isolate because they were a close contact and did not receive any homeschool because the rest of the class were in. Then they had to isolate again because of a case within their class, this isolation period included October half term. The entire class was supposed to be isolating but their siblings did not have to as they were not close contacts. So siblings of close contacts in school. Meanwhile over half term I know for sure that some of the close contacts from class went on holiday... because there is no way to monitor this. One went abroad.

I desperately want the schools to return but there needs to be changes in place to make sure that what happened at the end of last year is not repeated.

I really really hope they change their minds but sadly I feel they will bend to the pressures of society

But isn't that what we should be doing as a society? Do what's in society's interest?

If schools are safe, why did the Government close them in March and in December?

My son's secondary school had to send some years home a few days before each of the times the government said schools should teach online ( I refuse to say close as schools have never actually closed)

Each time the school was unable to stay fully open for face to face teaching because of the number of staff ill and isolating. The periods leading up to this both times were incredibly disruptive to learning, much more so than consistent well prepared online lessons have been.

They are announcing the plan on Monday.

They haven't even announced it yet!

Why doesn't everyone wait and see what they say? All these threads are just speculation, and since I doubt the government are checking mumsnet it seems silly to keep having the same threads.

Everyone has different opinions (I for one would prefer a Rota system and blended learning) but my opinion isn't going to make any difference to what they decide so why don't we just wait and see?

@Trumplosttheelection

Schools are safe and need to be open.

Care to expand ?

Is there a risk of mutant variants running though unvaccinated children?

If schools are safe, why did the Government close them in March and in December?

To protect the NHS.

Not to protect the school children or teachers.

The yellow line went mad because primary children were catching Covid?

Yes, but it’s unclear where they were catching it and why there was a sudden increase given previous rates and nothing much changing.

The attendance rates are better because of the smaller number who isolated for each case.

That’s not true. Fewer kids isolated in secondary per case, about 22, compared to 29 for primary (to pick DfE November figures randomly). This is despite secondary kids mixing with a far wider range of classes. The close contacts thing really was a terrible idea.

Got 1/2 through your post and thought this has to be @noblegiraffe with this sensible fact based post.

Completely agree. Year 10 and 12 need to be back as soon as possible. They seem to have been truly forgotten by the government.
I’d like to see part time consistent face to face school for secondary. But I wanted to see that in September instead of education Hokey Cokey.

It’s perfectly clear that reducing the number of children in school from January has correlated with covid rates dropping. I don’t know how anyone could seriously claim they’re unrelated and that schools are safe! We have an eighth of my (primary) school in at the moment and we’re teaching them in groups of fifteen. I’d like to see that number rise on 8th March, the easiest way would probably be to have EYFS and KS1 return first in classes of fifteen. Then after a few weeks we could attempt those groups in classes of 30 and start to bring back the other year groups slowly (along with secondary children).
I think it’s really important if we go back it should ideally be permanent. I think it’s much more damaging to children the way we keep going in and out of lockdown. The only way to make this a lasting return to school is to do it carefully and cautiously.

TLDR

I touched based with a front line dr friend of mine - the only source of information I trust, seeing as he's been working non-stop at GSTT since last March. He reckons numbers looking good right now but that will all go to shit the minute they open schools up again.